Anytime touchdown props are the most popular player bet in football, and prediction markets have turned them into something you can trade instead of just hold.
The Week 9 slate includes the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons in Madrid on Sunday morning and wraps up with the Buffalo Bills at the Minnesota Vikings on “Monday Night Football.” The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans are on bye, so 15 games’ worth of skill players are on the board.
On platforms like ProphetX and Kalshi, a touchdown market works a little differently than a traditional sportsbook prop. Each “Yes” contract trades between 1 cent and 99 cents, and that price reflects the market’s implied probability that the player finds the end zone. If he scores, the contract pays out $1. You also don’t have to wait for the final whistle. You can buy early when a price looks too low, then sell if the number climbs on injury news or a red-zone role change before kickoff.
That flexibility is where the value lives. Sporting News breaks down how to trade Week 9 anytime touchdown markets, which players stand out on the board, and how these contracts compare to standard sportsbook odds. And new users can get started with promo code TSN to earn a $40 prediction bonus on ProphetX.
The Sporting News has everything you need to know to use prediction markets on NFL action during Week 9, including the best apps and promos.
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Best NFL Week 9 anytime TD value picks
Jonah Coleman looked like the Broncos’ best running back in Sunday’s 28-24 win over the Chiefs, and the coaching staff seemed to notice. J.K. Dobbins got the start, but Coleman took over in the second half. He finished with 11 carries for 41 yards and four catches for 63 yards, and he punched in the go-ahead touchdown with about two minutes left.
He out-touched Dobbins 15-7. With RJ Harvey now on injured reserve, not much stands between the rookie and lead-back work in Carolina.
The matchup is about as friendly as it gets. The Panthers have been one of the worst run defenses in football this season, and they’ve been even worse at home, where opponents are running for close to 200 yards a game. Teams that reach the red zone against Carolina are cashing in touchdowns more often than against anyone else in the league. The Panthers also just fired defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, which tells you how bad things have gotten up front.
Coleman has only a handful of games under his belt, but he’s already scored twice, and both came on short runs late in close games. Dobbins could still vulture a goal-line carry. That said, Sean Payton went to Coleman when Denver needed a touchdown against Kansas City, and I expect the rookie to get that call again on Sunday against a defense that hasn’t been able to keep anyone out of the end zone.
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Aaron Glenn’s defense has been carved up through the air lately. Over the last three weeks, the Jets have given up nearly 700 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns, and quarterbacks are averaging 8.6 yards per attempt against them. They’ve also come up with just one interception all season, so not much has slowed anyone down. Next up is Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead.
Rashee Rice looked like himself in Sunday’s loss in Denver, his first game back from a hamstring injury. He led Kansas City with eight targets, caught seven of them, and scored on an 11-yard touchdown in the first quarter. Mahomes went right back to him as soon as he was available, especially when the field got tight.
Rice won’t be the only option when the Chiefs get close. Kenneth Walker III already has six rushing touchdowns, and Travis Kelce is still a factor. That said, Rice has found the end zone twice in five games, and he was the first look for Mahomes last week. Against a secondary that has been giving up touchdowns to just about everyone, I’ll back him to score again on Sunday.
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Jameson Williams had a quiet start to the season, but over the last month he’s been the Lions’ most reliable scorer. He has a touchdown catch in three straight games and five total in that stretch. The latest was the 7-yard game-winner in the back of the end zone against Minnesota on Sunday, at the end of a fourth-quarter drive Detroit had to have.
The Lions aren’t only using him to stretch the field, either. Williams had seven red-zone targets going into last week, and Jared Goff has kept looking for him when the field shrinks.
Now he gets a Miami defense that can’t cover anyone. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 77% of their passes against the Dolphins, the worst mark in the league, and Jeff Hafley’s group just let New England score 21 points on three straight possessions after halftime. On the other side, Detroit has scored more red-zone touchdowns than any team in football.
Jahmyr Gibbs will get his chances near the goal line, and Williams’ production can still come and go from week to week. That said, he’s the hottest receiver in this game, and Miami doesn’t have the secondary to slow him down. I’m riding the streak in South Florida.
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This game is headed to Madrid, and it has a real chance to turn into a shootout. Joe Burrow is coming off a 462-yard, five-touchdown performance in Cincinnati’s overtime win over Tennessee, and he already has 20 touchdown passes this season. If the Bengals move the ball like they usually do at the Bernabéu, Atlanta will have to throw to keep up.
That sets Kyle Pitts up to bounce back from a forgettable Sunday in Tampa Bay. He caught two passes for six yards in the rain, but nobody on the Falcons did much that day, with Michael Penix Jr. throwing four interceptions in a 16-0 loss. Before that, Pitts had scored in three straight games and found the end zone four times in that stretch. He isn’t getting many looks down the field, but at 6-foot-6, he’s become one of Penix’s top options near the goal line.
The Bengals haven’t allowed a touchdown to a tight end yet this season, and that’s the one thing working against this bet. Even so, they’ve given up the second-most receiving yards to the position, and they’ve missed more tackles than any defense in the league since the start of last season. Tight ends are getting open against Cincinnati every week. Sooner or later, one of them is going to finish a drive in the end zone, and Pitts is the one I want on Sunday morning.
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Best NFL anytime TD value plays on OG.com
Don’t read too much into Parker Washington’s quiet afternoon against Indianapolis. Jacksonville was up big by halftime of a 42-7 rout and spent the second half running the clock, so Washington finished with just one catch for 16 yards. Most weeks, the Jaguars won’t have the luxury of putting the passing game away that early.
The bigger picture looks a lot better. Washington has four touchdown catches this season, including a two-score day against Houston back in Week 5, and he’s drawing nearly a quarter of Trevor Lawrence’s targets. He’s also getting more than a third of the team’s air yards, so when Lawrence wants to push the ball downfield, Washington is usually the one he’s looking for.
Baltimore hasn’t had an answer for top receivers. The Ravens are allowing more than 10 yards per target to opposing WR1s, one of the worst marks in the league, and they’ve had trouble keeping teams out of the end zone once they reach the red zone. Jakobi Meyers is also dealing with a hamstring injury, which could push even more volume toward Washington.
Without Lamar Jackson, the Ravens may not be able to force Jacksonville into a shootout, and Washington’s yardage has been up and down since early in the season. Still, he’s Lawrence’s top option against a secondary that has been getting beat by receivers just like him, and I expect him to find the end zone Thursday night.
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- Patriots vs. Packers: Matthew Golden first TD (4% at Kalshi)
Green Bay can’t run the ball. The Packers are averaging just 2.85 yards per carry, the lowest mark in the league, and no team has fewer rushing yards. They also lead the NFL in passing yards, so when Matt LaFleur needs points, the ball is going through Jordan Love.
Matthew Golden has been the biggest beneficiary. He’s seen double-digit targets in six of eight games, including 13 in last Thursday’s win over Carolina, when he finished with seven catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. He barely practiced that week because of shoulder and foot injuries, and the Packers still treated him like their No. 1 option once the game started.
First-touchdown bets are long shots by nature, and Christian Watson can just as easily be the one who opens the scoring. Even so, Golden is the top target in an offense that has to throw to move the ball, and he’s priced like a fringe option. He’s worth a small sprinkle in Foxborough.
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Carolina has already given up multiple rushing touchdowns in a game more than once this season. Chicago ran for six in the opener, and Tampa Bay piled up 258 yards and three scores on the ground the last time the Panthers played at home. Overall, they’ve allowed 12 rushing touchdowns, which puts them near the bottom of the league.
That kind of defense makes a two-touchdown day for Jonah Coleman feel a lot less far-fetched than this price suggests. Denver is a short road favorite, and if the Broncos get in front, Sean Payton should lean on the run to close it out. J.K. Dobbins didn’t give him much reason to go back to the veteran last week, averaging less than 2 yards per carry on his seven attempts against Kansas City.
Volume is still the hurdle. Coleman hasn’t been handed a true bell-cow workload yet, and he’ll need more than a dozen carries to get multiple chances near the goal line. If Denver finally turns the backfield over to him, this matchup gives him a legit path to a pair of short scores, and that’s worth a small piece.
