For everyone, it is hard to believe the 2026 NFL regular season is half-finished. This year has been up-and-down with plenty of surprises in store every week for Sporting News’ game picks and predictions against the spread.
Here’s hoping the lessons learned in a tricky first half will help our success rate in the second half. Although it can be useful to look back, the focus turns to the challenge lying ahead as Week 9’s slate features several road favorites.
As we try to make it a November and December to remember, let’s dive into another fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
MORE: SN’s latest NFL power rankings for Week 9
NFL picks against the spread for Week 9
All spreads and odds are courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
All prediction market implied probabilities are from ProphetX. ProphetX displays market percentages instead of betting odds. The percentages reflect the collective implied probability of an event.
Peter Cziborra-Reuters
Game of Midweek: Jaguars (-8.5, 43.5 o/u) at Ravens
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars‘ running game have reached new heights in Liam Coen’s offense, and for the Ravens‘ reeling defense, that can feel like a carbon copy of the Bills game, this time in Baltimore instead of Buffalo. The Ravens need to scramble for QB competency in a short week and the Jaguars’ run defense can keep Derrick Henry in check.
Pick: Jaguars win 27-14 and cover the spread.
MORE: Ravens’ 6 best QB trade options to replace Jackson, Huntley
Game of the Week: Bills (-3.5, 46.5 o/u) at Vikings
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
The Bills will get a good pressure test from Minnesota, bringing heat on Josh Allen, while the Vikings will try to deploy their receivers better against another vulnerable pass defense. Kyler Murray hasn’t gotten the job done to unlock Justin Jefferson and others and won’t be able to match the big plays Allen makes, both with Allen’s bigger arm and stronger legs.
Pick: Bills win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Other Game of the Week: Packers at Patriots (-2.5, 47.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Packers have embraced being a pass-happy big-play team and will accept they will have limited rushing success in New England. Quarterback Jordan Love will take lumps in the pass rush, however, and the Patriots‘ scheme can force him into mistakes. Drake Maye getting more support from the running game to facilitate his downfield passing makes the difference.
Pick: Patriots win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Chiefs (-9.5, 46.5 o/u) over Jets
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs have lost two tough road games at Seattle and Denver and will welcome home cooking at Arrowhead to stay grounded with Kenneth Walker III and pound the Jets. The Jets also proved last week they have trouble covering tight ends. Aaron Glenn’s team is on the ropes, and this is a get-well game for Kansas City in all three phases.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-14 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Eagles (+3.5, 46.5 o/u) over Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles ran out of gas to stay competitive against the Cowboys and Commanders in consecutive division games. The Giants are coming off a bye under John Harbaugh, which helps, but Philadelphia is overdue to steal one of these division games. They will follow Saquon Barkley’s lead against his former team and expect the defense to help more vs. J.J. McCarthy.
Pick: Eagles win 23-20.
Bengals (-3.5, 51.5 o/u) vs. Falcons (in Madrid)
Sunday 9:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network
The Bengals have had some wild home games, but as good as Joe Burrow has been lighting up the stat sheet in Cincinnati, he’s been better on the road this season. The Falcons have some moments in the pass rush, but their defense is too dependent on big plays. Offensively, the Bengals would position themselves well in a potential shootout if they just slow down Bijan Robinson on the plains of Spain, regardless of rain.
Pick: Bengals win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Cowboys (-5.5, 51.5 o/u) at Colts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cowboys cannot stop a team that has a competent offense, given how poorly their defense is tackling and covering opponents. Fortunately for them, the Colts no longer qualify as that kind of team. Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren would be bigger factors if they had more help from the line and quarterback. The Indy defense is also breaking down everywhere and Dallas can make quick work to pull away enough this time following the Cardinals’ debacle at home.
Pick: Cowboys win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Lions (-6.5, 50.5 o/u) at Dolphins
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Lions survived the Vikings’ defense with plenty of Jahmyr Gibbs in the running game, setting up timely big pass plays for Jared Goff. That’s really how they win offensively every week. They won’t meet much resistance from the defense in Miami. Honolulu Blue has no problem showing all of its hot colors to Marine Blue.
Pick: Lions win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Lon Horwedel/Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
Browns at Saints (-2.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Browns are quickly regressing to the mean and going into a hostile environment to face a hungry, young team after a bye doesn’t bode well. New Orleans will have emphasized the need to execute better at home for both Kellen Moore and Brandon Staley. Tyler Shough gets it done, having more reliable weapons than Deshaun Watson.
Pick: Saints win 23-20 and cover the spread.
Rams (-5.5, 47.5 o/u) at Commanders
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Commanders have fight left under Dan Quinn with a healthy Jayden Daniels and offensive positives despite devastating injuries. The Rams need to rely heavily on the run to fight through their passing limitations. With Washington slowing down the rushing attack and Daniels improvising, Los Angeles will need to survive a four-quarter slog.
Pick: Rams win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
MORE: Jayden Daniels snaps unreal drought vs. Eagles
Broncos (-2.5, 43.5 o/u) at Panthers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Broncos are getting little respect with this number because of the road. There is also doubt about Bo Nix and the passing game despite outlasting and rallying to beat the Chiefs last week. But Denver found the running game at the right time with healthy rookie Jonah Coleman and stuck with it late to win in Week 8. That times well with pounding on the Panthers to avoid a trap game across two time zones.
Pick: Broncos win 27-17 and cover the spread.
Texans (-4.5, 40.5 o/u) at Chargers
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Texans are the better of the two underachieving teams with their defensive energy led by Will Anderson Jr. and C.J. Stroud playing well, vs. everything going wrong for the Chargers and Justin Herbert falling into an even bigger passing slump after the bye.
Pick: Texans win 23-14 and cover the spread.
Imagn Images
Raiders at 49ers (-9.5, 51.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers will be relentless, running the ball on the Raiders with Christian McCaffrey and Kaelon Black. With Fred Warner, the 49ers have a linebacker who can help keep Brock Bowers a little in check for Kirk Cousins. The Raiders are also in a tough defensive spot vs. the 49ers tight end, George Kittle. San Francisco had a bye to get healthier to focus on ripping through the weaknesses of old friend Klint Kubiak and their former Bay Area neighbors.
Pick: 49ers win 34-24 and cover the spread.
Cardinals at Seahawks (-11.5, 44.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Gardner Minshew deserves to start after that maniacal magic in relief of Jacoby Brissett in a potential return to the state where he played in college. Arizona, however, faces a reality check of a nasty pass defense after manipulating the Cowboys’ sieve last week, regardless of QB.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-10 and cover the spread.
Buccaneers at Bears (-5.5, 46.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Buccaneers’ passing game has gone non-existent the past two weeks, but that’s been fine in dominant blowout wins against weak, inconsistent division opponents. Baker Mayfield will need to rev up his arm quickly to try to outduel fellow former Oklahoma QB, Caleb Williams. While Bucky Irving can stay hot running, Chicago also can run the ball at a high level and has more juice to make big plays for Williams.
Pick: Bears win 31-20 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
- Week 8 straight-up record: 10-4
- Week 8 against the spread record: 5-9
- Season-to-date straight-up record: 78-43
- Season-to-date against the spread record: 55-66
