The NFL’s top scoring offense meets the top scoring defense on Monday Night Football.
The matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings is the highlight of the Week 9 schedule. Buffalo is scorching the league under first-year coach Joe Brady with an offense that averages 33.3 points per game. Quarterback Josh Allen has 20 total TDs, and the Bills are the only one-loss team in the AFC.
The Vikings took their first loss against Detroit in Week 8, and the defense under coordinator Brian Flores has been the story. Minnesota allows 13.3 points per game, and this will be the test. Can coach Kevin O’Connell get the offense going against the Bills? It’s a huge game knowing Minnesota has the rematch with the Packers in Week 10.
The only other matchup between two teams with winning records in Week 9 is Green Bay at New England – a battle of 5-3 teams that Buffalo and Minnesota will surely be watching.
POWER RANKINGS: Broncos, Steelers climb, Vikings, Eagles fall
A look at our track record heading into Week 9:
S/U: 79-41-1 (12-2 in Week 8)
ATS: 54-66-1 (9-5 in Week 8)
NFL picks, predictions for Week 9
All spreads and odds are courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
All prediction market implied probabilities are from ProphetX. ProphetX displays market percentages instead of betting odds. The percentages reflect the collective implied probability of an event.
Jaguars (-8.5) over RAVENS
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
Lamar Jackson (thumb) is out, and Tyler Huntley (toe) could miss the game. The Ravens have an uncertain quarterback plan with a short week. The Jaguars are 2-1 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown and they have the best rushing defense in the NFL at 77.4 yards per game. Baltimore could bow up here, but we’ll trust Trevor Lawrence to keep Jacksonville on task on the road.
Pick: Jaguars 32, Ravens 18
MORE: Ravens’ 6 best QB trade options to replace Jackson, Huntley
Bengals (-3.5) over FALCONS
Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network
The NFL arrives in Madrid for the International Series. Joe Burrow isn’t going to go an entire game without a completion against the Falcons‘ defense. Burrow is playing like an NFL MVP, and the Bengals are 2-1 ATS when favored by less than a touchdown. Atlanta hasn’t topped 100 rushing yards in its last three games.
Pick: Bengals 29, Falcons 23
COLTS (+5.5) over Cowboys
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Colts are stuck in a nasty four-game losing streak, and the continued speculation about running back Jonathan Taylor being traded persists. Daniel Jones has two TDs and five interceptions through the skid. The Cowboys also are at a tipping point – and they have allowed 200-plus rushing yards to Tampa Bay and Arizona. Taylor can work with that. Indianapolis is 3-3 ATS as an underdog.
Pick: Cowboys 28, Colts 24
MORE: Breaking down the Cowboys’ defensive disaster
CHIEFS (-9.5) over Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Jets are 1-0 ATS with a push in two games where they are more than a touchdown underdog on the road. New York has five one-score losses this season. The Chiefs lost back-to-back road games – so this is a get-right spot for Patrick Mahomes, who has a 99.8 passer rating at home. Kansas City has committed just five turnovers this season. Without those turnovers, the Jets are in trouble.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Jets 13
DOLPHINS (+6.5) over Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Dolphins are improving under first-year coach Jeff Hafley. Miami has covered as an underdog each of the last four weeks. The Dolphins outscored the Jets and Patriots 34-10 in the first half the last two weeks, and the Lions are in a let-down spot after NFC North victories against the Packers and Vikings. Detroit is 1-2 S/U on the road this year. Jared Goff – who has 1,964 yards, 15 TDs and one interception – continues his brilliant season, and Jahmyr Gibbs enjoys a fourth straight 100-yard game, but Miami hangs around at home.
Pick: Lions 31, Dolphins 21
SAINTS (-2.5) over Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Both offenses are struggling. Deshaun Watson has taken a league-high 33 sacks, and the Browns average 97.6 rushing yards per game. New Orleans has been worse on the ground, but a bye week comes at the right time. The Saints are 0-4 S/U this season – and this game is a candidate for a walk-off field goal either way. Tyler Shough needs to avoid the interceptions, but New Orleans wins a coin-flip game.
Pick: Saints 20, Browns 17
Giants (-2.5) over EAGLES
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Eagles are a brutal watch the last three weeks. Philadelphia averages 15 points per game in three losses with quarterback Tanner McKee, and running back Saquon Barkley continues to battle through injuries. Philadelphia doesn’t have a lot of turnovers in that stretch, which could make another NFC East game interesting. New York is 3-1-1 S/U in one-score games, and JJ McCarthy improves to 2-0 as a starter for the Giants.
Pick: Giants 24, Eagles 17
COMMANDERS (+5.5) over Rams
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Washington is 1-1-1 S/U at home, and they have momentum with Jayden Daniels, who has yet to throw an interception this season. Myles Garrett (knee) could return to practice this week for the Rams, who are 2-1 S/U on the road and coming off a pair of two-score victories. The secret? Running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have combined for 331 rushing yards on 5.5 yards per carry with two rushing TDs each the last two weeks. Washington will need to slow that down.
Rams: Rams 27, Commanders 25
MORE: Breaking down the Cowboys’ defensive disaster
Broncos (-2.5) over PANTHERS
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Is this a trap spot for the Broncos after the comeback victory against Kansas City? It’s a chance to turn up the heat on Carolina quarterback Bryce Young. Denver has 23 sacks, and running back Jonah Coleman is becoming a factor in the running game. The Broncos will extend their winning streak to five games.
Pick: Broncos 28, Panthers 20
CHARGERS (+4.5) over Texans
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS
When does the season-long nightmare end for the Chargers? Los Angeles also is 0-7 ATS, which makes this look like a layup for the Texans on the road. Quarterback Justin Herbert has 12 turnovers this season. Houston has created just six turnovers, and the Texans average just 84.7 rushing yards per game. This is the week.
Pick: Chargers 21, Texans 20
PATRIOTS (-2.5) over Packers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
A pair of 5-3 teams looking to solidify their contender status meet. New England is 3-0 S/U at home, and Drake Maye has increased his passer rating to 100.4 after a slow start to the season. Jordan Love – who is second in the NFL with 280.8 passing yards per game – will have a hard time on the road if Green Bay can’t add at least some balance in the running game. New England won the last two meetings in Foxborough.
Pick: Patriots 26, Packers 20
Raiders (+9.5) over 49ERS
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
San Francisco had a bye week to recover from their Week 7 loss to Atlanta. It’s a showcase for elite tight ends Brock Bowers (547 yards, 5 TDs) and George Kittle (425 yards, 5 TDs). Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins ranks second in the NFL with 19 TDs, and Las Vegas should be able to make it a four-quarter game. The 49ers are 3-0 S/U and 1-2 ATS at home.
Pick: 49ers 29, Raiders 23
Cardinals (+11.5) over SEAHAWKS
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 31-7 in Week 2. Arizona has played better on the road – where they are 3-2 S/U. Seattle had 162 rushing yards in that first meeting. Double-digit underdogs are 5-2 ATS in the NFL this season, so the value is on Arizona. Seattle has a 10-game winning streak in the series.
Pick: Seahawks 28, Cardinals 18
BEARS (-5.5) over Buccaneers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Tampa Bay has reinvented their season with three straight victories. The defense has allowed 13.8 points per game in that four-game stretch. Chicago is 3-1 S/U at home, Caleb Williams continues to be efficient and this will be the home debut for newly-acquired defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. The Bears are 4-2 S/U in prime-time games under coach Ben Johnson, with two victories this season.
Pick: Bears 30, Buccaneers 18
MORE: Bucky Irving among RBs who stole the show in Week 8
Bills (-2.5) over VIKINGS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Monday Night Football spotlight is there for Minnesota. Still, can this offense keep up with Buffalo? Kyler Murray hasn’t passed for more than 250 yards in a game this season. We’re going to lean toward the offense in this one.
Pick: Bills 24, Vikings 15
