The NFL is officially heading to France.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) and New Orleans Saints (2-4) will play the first regular-season game in league history on French soil Sunday morning at Stade de France in Saint-Denis, just north of Paris. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network. New Orleans is the designated home team, though the two sides took very different paths to get there. The Saints flew straight to Paris after beating the Giants and have been settling in since Monday, while the Steelers went home from Tampa first and won’t take off until after Thursday’s practice.

Aaron Rodgers is the headliner here. The 42-year-old, in what’s expected to be his 22nd and final season, threw just one touchdown pass in Pittsburgh’s first two games before flipping a switch. He’s thrown 11 over his last four outings, and the Steelers have now won back-to-back games for the first time this season, including an overtime win over the Buccaneers after falling behind 16-3. Rodgers is currently tied with Peyton Manning at 539 career regular-season touchdown passes, so one more in Paris moves him alone into third place on the all-time list.

The Saints have been tough to figure out. They’ve trailed by double digits in several games this season and keep finding ways to fight back, like last week when they fell behind the Giants 10-0 before ripping off 34 straight points to snap a three-game losing streak. Tyler Shough has matched Rodgers with 12 touchdown passes and five interceptions, and he’s been close to automatic in the red zone. The problem is the defense, which is giving up nearly 30 points per game and has really struggled to stop the run.

There’s a fun coaching subplot, too. Kellen Moore spent three seasons as Mike McCarthy’s offensive coordinator in Dallas, and now the two square off with McCarthy on the Pittsburgh sideline. The Steelers opened as short favorites of roughly two points with a total in the mid-40s.

We break down our best bets for Saints vs. Steelers, along with the latest odds, predictions, and sportsbook promos for Sunday’s historic matchup in Paris.

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Saints vs. Steelers prediction

The matchup I keep coming back to is Pittsburgh’s ground game against this New Orleans defense. The Saints rank dead last in the NFL in both success rate allowed and EPA per rush, which tells you opponents are moving the chains on them almost at will. The Steelers have been one of the more efficient rushing teams in the league, too, so it’s a little surprising they throw at the second-highest rate in football. If Mike McCarthy leans on Jaylen Warren and the run game more than usual, Pittsburgh should be able to control this one on the ground and keep the Saints’ offense on the sideline.

That would also help the Steelers fix their biggest issue, which is third down. They’ve converted under a third of their attempts, one of the worst marks in the league. That said, the Saints haven’t been much better at getting off the field, allowing conversions on nearly 45% of third downs. One of those two numbers has to give, and I trust the Steelers to win the short-yardage battles if they stay patient with the run.

On the other side, New Orleans plays fast, ranking fourth in plays per game, and Shough has done a nice job keeping drives alive on third down. The Steelers have been stingy there, though, and they’re one of the best teams in the league at limiting efficiency through the air. Pittsburgh has given up its share of chunk plays this season, but the Saints aren’t built to take advantage of that. They’ve been one of the least explosive offenses in the NFL, and without big plays, Shough will need long, clean drives against a defense that rarely allows them.

I expect the Saints to hang around for a while, especially with a full week in Paris to get acclimated. Still, the Steelers have the more complete team and a clear edge on the ground. I like Pittsburgh to grind out a win and cover the short number.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Saints 17

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Saints vs. Steelers odds

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Saints vs. Steelers best bets

I’m backing Pittsburgh because I think the biggest difference in this matchup is on defense. The Steelers rank ninth in total defense, allowing 307.5 yards per game, while the Saints rank 29th at 377.7. New Orleans has also struggled to protect the football, entering this game with a minus-three turnover differential. Pittsburgh has the better defense, has been more consistent, and should be able to control the game against a Saints team allowing nearly 30 points per contest. I’m comfortable laying the 3.5 points at even money.

Despite Pittsburgh’s defensive success, I like the over in this matchup. New Orleans is averaging 25.3 points per game but allowing 29.7, which creates opportunities for opponents to capitalize on defensive mistakes. The Saints rank 30th against the run and 25th against the pass. That should allow Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh’s offense to move the football consistently. The biggest concern is Pittsburgh’s defense, but New Orleans has enough offensive production to contribute. I don’t think the Steelers need to be involved in a shootout for this over to cash. A 27-20 result gets us there.

This might be my favorite matchup advantage on the board. New Orleans ranks 30th against the run, allowing 138 rushing yards per game and nearly 4.8 yards per carry. That’s a problem against Warren, who enters this contest averaging 5.5 yards per carry with 460 rushing yards through six games. Pittsburgh should have opportunities to establish the ground game, especially if it gets ahead early. Warren doesn’t need an enormous workload to clear this number. At his season average, 12 carries would get him well past 60 yards. We must take advantage of the league worst rushing defense.

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Best SGP for Saints vs. Steelers

Here’s our favorite same game parlay for the NFL’s first ever game in France: 

• Germie Bernard 50+ receiving yards: Bernard has gone from afterthought to one of Aaron Rodgers’ favorite targets over the last two weeks, posting 80 yards against the Colts and then a franchise rookie-record 11 catches for 87 yards and the game-winning touchdown in Tampa. With Roman Wilson on injured reserve and Ben Skowronek missing practice, the rookie should stay locked into a full-time slot role against a Saints secondary that’s been easy to throw on.
• Chris Olave over 75.5 receiving yards: Olave signed a big extension this offseason and opened the year with a career-best 182 yards against the Lions, and he’s still the clear No. 1 option for Shough. If the Saints fall behind as I expect, the volume should be there for him to clear this number against a Steelers defense that will have to keep him in front of them all afternoon.
• Tyler Shough over 13.5 rushing yards: Shough isn’t a true dual-threat quarterback, but he’s shown he’ll tuck it and run when the pocket breaks down, including a 32-yard rushing day earlier this month. This is a low bar to clear, and a couple of scrambles on third down against a Pittsburgh pass rush that wants to get after him should do the trick.
• Odds: (+439 at FanDuel)