In a big surprise, the Cleveland Browns are 3-1 to start the 2026 NFL season. Most would’ve expected the Browns to be one of the worst teams in the NFL once again, especially after getting blown out by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1.
But they’ve rattled off three straight wins, beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, with the New York Jets on tap, they might actually start 4-1. However, this strong start might not be as good as it seems.
ESPN’s Aaron Schatz gave the Browns and the 3-1 New York Giants the same brutal reality check amid their strong starts. Unfortunately, NFL history suggests that the Browns and Giants are among the worst 3-1 teams ever, and that regression is likely.
Browns and Giants among worst 3-1 teams in NFL history
“The Browns and Giants do not rank among the 10 worst 3-1 teams by DVOA since 1977, but they do rank among the worst 3-1 teams since the turn of the century,” Schatz writes.
Since 2000, the 2026 Browns have a “minus-10.0%” DVOA, which ranks ninth-worst in the NFL over the last 26 years. The Giants aren’t far behind at “minus-9.4%” DVOA, 11th worst since 2000.
The Browns and Giants are both among the worst 3-1 teams in the last quarter century, and considering how multiple of the other top-10 worst teams in DVOA to start a season 3-1 missed the playoffs, both teams this year could fall short.
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Schatz writes, “I think it’s more likely that the Brown and Giants will play down to their DVOA over the rest of the season rather than playing better and continuing to win games.”
While it’s only a prediction from Schatz, ESPN’s Football Power Index agrees, with the Browns being given only an 18% chance of making the playoffs and the Giants just a 4% chance.
Despite the Browns and Giants both having a 3-1 record, Schatz not only doesn’t believe in either team, but he has them ranked among the worst 3-1 teams of all time in NFL history.
Overall, this is a brutal reality check for the Browns and Giants. But seeing either team continue to play well from here on out would be a surprise based on NFL history. It’s been a fun start, but the Browns and Giants might be headed towards major regression.
