For the second consecutive college football season, a collection of preseason favorites have watched their national title hopes fade away before the playoffs even arrived.
Last year, Texas, Penn State and Clemson all missed the College Football Playoff despite being ranked within the top-5 in the preseason AP Poll, originally considered three of the most complete rosters in the country. This year, Oregon has fallen into a similar level of disappointment.
The Ducks entered 2026 as a popular national title pick, bringing back a collection of top talent and an elite quarterback following consecutive 13-win seasons. A matchup against Ohio State on Nov. 7 was originally pinned as Oregon’s biggest game of the season — a chance to prove itself as the title favorite.
But now that Dan Lanning’s squad has reached that game against the Buckeyes, their playoff hopes are virtually gone, needing a historic turn of events to even make the field.
Here’s a look back at what’s gone wrong for Oregon in 2026.
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What went wrong for Oregon?
Early defensive struggles
The Ducks’ start to the season didn’t inspire much optimism. In Week 1, they trailed at multiple points against Boise State, ultimately coming back to win 34-27. The following week turned out worse — Drew Mestemaker threw for 317 yards, ran for another 109 and had three total touchdowns as Oklahoma State upset the Ducks, 39-31.
Drew Mestemaker just led Oklahoma State to a massive upset over No. 6 Oregon 317 PYDS, 109 RUYDS, 3 Total TDs https://t.co/vH8wX3wrip
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) September 13, 2026
In the span of two weeks, Lanning’s defense allowed 66 points before the Big Ten schedule even arrived. The Cowboys’ 239 rushing yards as a team were particularly concerning for an Oregon defense that brought back a number of talented defenders.
An early 1-1 record was the first sign of what was to come for Oregon, even with Dante Moore playing well in those two games.
Dante Moore goes down vs. USC
Lanning had his Ducks squad back on the right track with an 84-0 win over Portland State, but in its first conference game of the season, Oregon saw its star quarterback go down.
Moore suffered a concussion after a scary hit against USC, and reports have indicated that he’s expected to miss the rest of the 2026 season. After deciding against entering the 2026 NFL Draft to return to Eugene, Moore played in just three games before his injury.
Oregon did have a big-name backup waiting in the wings in former Nebraska starter Dylan Raiola, who threw two touchdown passes in relief vs. USC in a key win. But the bounce-back did not last long.
Raiola struggles vs. UCLA
Looking to avoid a second loss — typically the maximum a 12-team playoff squad can have — Oregon hosted a rising UCLA squad in early October, with Raiola getting the start. His first game running the offense didn’t go as planned.
Raiola threw two interceptions vs. the Bruins, a 17-15 loss as UCLA ran for 140 yards as a team to remain unbeaten.
As the inability to stop the run continued, Oregon didn’t have the luxury of Moore’s high-level quarterback play to save it.
Final nail in playoff coffin with loss to Illinois
Hanging on by a thread in the playoff race, and essentially needing to win out behind Raiola, Oregon narrowly took down Nebraska on Oct. 17 before traveling to face Illinois.
Again, Raiola couldn’t get the Ducks’ offense going. He lost a fumble and did not throw a touchdown pass against the unranked Illini, who claimed a 21-10 victory by running for 225 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
If Oregon’s playoff hopes were still alive, they were severely diminished by the time the Ducks fell to 4-3, with quarterback play and defensive run-stopping becoming major issues. Defensive coordinator Drew Mehringer was let go after the loss.
While Oregon beat No. 20 Northwestern last week — with Raiola bouncing back for three touchdown passes — it would take a lot of help for the Ducks to even find themselves in CFP conversations by December.
DYLAN RAIOLA JUST PLAYED HIS BEST GAME IN AN OREGON UNIFORM 🦆🔥 22/31, 336 YDS, 3 TDS, 0 INT VS NORTHWESTERN https://t.co/wT7U779AYM
— CFB Performances (@performancesCFB) October 31, 2026
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Oregon football rankings 2026
Here’s a look at Oregon’s drop in the AP Top 25 over the 2026 season:
- Preseason: No. 2
- Week 1: No. 6
- Week 2: No. 21
- Week 3: No. 20
- Week 4: No. 15
- Week 5: No. 13
- Week 6: Unranked
- Week 7: Unranked
- Week 8: Unranked
- Week 9: Unranked
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Oregon remaining schedule
| Date | Opponent | Time (ET) |
| Nov. 7 | at Ohio State | 3:30 p.m. |
| Nov. 14 | vs. Michigan | 3:30 p.m. |
| Nov. 20 | at Michigan State | 8 p.m. |
| Nov. 28 | vs. Washington | TBD |
No team with three or more losses has ever made the CFP. Even if Oregon wins out — which would include a victory over No. 13 Ohio State — the Ducks likely won’t have enough of a resume to excuse their three losses.
It would take a few shake-ups in the CFP race, including multiple upset losses from other contenders, for Oregon to somehow sneak in as an at-large bid. The CFP committee slotted the Ducks in at No. 23 in the first rankings of the season.
But chances are, the focus will soon turn to 2027 for Lanning and the Ducks despite their sky-high expectations entering 2026.
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