No. 2 Ohio State heads to the Coliseum for a Halloween night showdown with USC, and for the first time this season, the Buckeyes won’t have Julian Sayin under center.

Sayin suffered an arm injury in the fourth quarter of the 19-15 win at Indiana, and Ryan Day has already ruled him out indefinitely. Day still hasn’t named a replacement coming out of the bye week. True freshman Luke Fahey, who finished the Indiana game, looks like the frontrunner, but Tavien St. Clair took first-team reps last week, and Day said it’s “definitely possible” both quarterbacks play Saturday night.

Ohio State (6-1, 4-0 Big Ten) can lean on a defense that’s been one of the best in the country while the offense figures things out. USC (6-2, 3-2 Big Ten) is trying to regroup after getting manhandled in a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin, where the Trojans finished with -17 rushing yards. Jayden Maiava now has to bounce back against a much tougher defense.

The Buckeyes are 7-point road favorites, with the total sitting at 51.5. We break down our best bets for USC vs. Ohio State, along with the latest odds, predictions, and sportsbook promos. Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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USC vs. Ohio State prediction

I’m taking USC to pull off the upset at the Coliseum.

Ohio State’s defense is the real deal, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. The Buckeyes have held opponents to a 52.6% completion rate, and they’ve been just as stingy against the run. That unit will keep them in this game no matter who’s taking snaps.

The problem is everything around the quarterback spot. Whether it’s Fahey, Tavien St. Clair, or some mix of the two, Ohio State is handing the offense to a freshman for his first career start, on the road, after a cross-country flight, in a primetime environment. That’s a lot to ask of a kid who was finishing up mop-up duty at Indiana two weeks ago.

It doesn’t help that the Buckeyes haven’t been able to lean on their ground game. Ohio State sits outside the top 60 nationally in EPA per rush, so there’s no reliable run game to take pressure off a young passer. If Day goes with a two-quarterback rotation, it’s tough to see either one finding a rhythm.

USC’s defense does have holes, especially against the pass, where they’ve been near the bottom of the country. That’s the one thing keeping me from feeling better about this pick. That said, exploiting a leaky secondary takes timing and trust in the pocket, and that’s exactly what an inexperienced quarterback is still trying to build.

On the other side, this USC offense was humming before the trip to Madison. The Trojans rank third nationally in success rate at 51.8%; they’ve converted more than half of their third downs, and Maiava has been under pressure on only 9.7% of dropbacks. One rough night in a tough road environment doesn’t erase seven weeks of production.

Lincoln Riley’s group also comes into this one with something to prove after getting embarrassed last week. Playing at home on Halloween night with a chance to knock off the No. 2 team in the country, I expect a much sharper version of the Trojans.

Ohio State is the better team on paper, but the Buckeyes are in a tough spot here. USC gets the signature win.

Prediction: USC 24, Ohio State 20

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USC vs. Ohio State odds

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USC vs. Ohio State best bets

I’m buying low on USC after their embarrassing loss to Wisconsin. Since 2024, traditional Big Ten teams traveling west to face the conference’s former Pac-12 programs are just 5-9 ATS.

More importantly, Ohio State is making this trip without Sayin. Fahey has attempted just 13 passes this season, and two of them ended up in the other team’s hands. Now he’s being asked to cover nearly a touchdown in a hostile environment against a USC team that already went into Penn State and won outright.

The USC defense has been a mess against the pass, which is the obvious counterargument here. But that only helps Ohio State if the quarterback can take advantage of it, and a freshman making his first start isn’t exactly a safe bet to carve up a secondary. The Trojans have held up on third down, allowing conversions just 32.1% of the time. If USC can force Fahey or Tavien St. Clair into obvious passing situations, the mistakes should come.

The Buckeyes also don’t play fast, ranking outside the top 75 in pace. Fewer possessions means fewer chances for the favorite to pull away, and that’s exactly what you want when you’re holding the points.

Maiava is the best quarterback on the field Saturday, and it isn’t particularly close. The Trojans have been one of the most efficient passing offenses in the country, ranking third in EPA per dropback, and they’ve done a good job turning drives into points once they get inside the 40. Ohio State’s defense will win some snaps, but Maiava doesn’t need a perfect night to keep this close.

The Buckeyes have the more talented roster, but there’s a difference between being the better team and covering on the road with a freshman under center. USC can make enough plays offensively to keep this within one score, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they win it outright.

Smith is the best receiver in college football, and fading him usually feels like a bad idea. This week is different.

His monster numbers came with Sayin throwing him the ball. Smith has 984 receiving yards through seven games, but a lot of that came early, when Sayin was locked in, and Ohio State was pushing the ball downfield. Over the last two games, Smith finished with 93 yards against Maryland and 68 at Indiana. Now the guy who built that chemistry with him is out.

Whether it’s Fahey or St. Clair, the first priority for a freshman making his first start is avoiding mistakes. That usually means quick, safe throws, checkdowns, and a heavier dose of the run game. Ohio State already leans on the ground more than most offenses, throwing on just 48% of their plays, and I’d expect Day to dial it back even further with a young quarterback on the road.

USC also knows exactly who they need to stop. The Trojans’ secondary isn’t good, but Riley’s staff had two weeks to scheme against this matchup, and every coverage call should start with taking Smith away. Making a freshman beat you with the other receivers and the tight ends is a much better plan than letting the Heisman favorite find single coverage.

The one thing working against this under is how many big plays the USC defense has given up. Smith can clear this number on two catches if he gets behind somebody. That said, those deep shots require time and trust, and I don’t see a freshman quarterback taking many of them in his first start at the Coliseum.

Smith will get his catches, but this feels like a night where the volume and the explosive plays aren’t there. I’ll take the under.

Ohio State’s backfield got a lot thinner a couple of weeks ago. Ja’Kobi Jackson, who had been splitting work and leading the team in rushing touchdowns, had surgery on his foot and isn’t expected back until the Michigan game. That leaves Jackson as the clear lead back the rest of the way.

We already got a preview of what that looks like at Indiana. Jackson played a career-high 52 snaps and finished with 18 carries, even though the Hoosiers held him to just 56 yards. The week before, when the Florida transfer went down in the fourth quarter against Maryland, Jackson handled 23 carries.

The yards haven’t always been there, and USC has been solid enough against the run that I wouldn’t want to touch his yardage prop. Attempts are a different story. This is about volume, and Day has every reason to feed Jackson with a freshman making his first start on the road.

Fahey or St. Clair, it doesn’t really matter here. Ohio State’s offensive line has already given up 15 sacks this season, so leaning on the ground game is the easiest way to keep a young quarterback upright and out of obvious passing downs. Expect a lot of handoffs early to settle things down.

Isaiah West and Legend Bey could steal a few carries, especially with Oregon coming to Columbus next week. That said, West only got six carries in the Indiana game when Jackson was the featured back, so I don’t see the split changing much in a game this big.

I’m also expecting this one to stay close, which keeps the Buckeyes from abandoning the run in the second half. Give me Jackson to get 20-plus carries.

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SGP for USC vs. Ohio State

Here is our favorite same game parlay for this Big Ten battle: 

• USC moneyline: I already think the Trojans can win this game outright, so building a parlay around the upset makes sense at this price. A freshman quarterback making his first start at the Coliseum is a tough ask, even for a team as talented as Ohio State.
• Kayden Dixon-Wyatt 43+ receiving yards: If USC pulls this off, Maiava is going to need to make plays through the air, and Dixon-Wyatt has been one of his most reliable targets. He came up big in the win at Penn State, and this is a low enough number that a couple of catches can get it done.
• Bo Jackson 20+ rushing attempts: This leg ties in nicely with a close game, since Ohio State won’t have a reason to abandon the run if the score stays tight. With Ja’Kobi Jackson sidelined and a young quarterback under center, the Buckeyes should lean on Jackson all night.

Odds: (+1600 at DraftKings)