The UFC heads back to the Meta Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, Oct. 10, as Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan headline UFC Vegas 122 in a middleweight main event with real ranking implications.

Allen (27-7) comes in at No. 4 in the division and is riding a three-fight win streak, with his latest being a unanimous decision over Edmen Shahbazyan in June. Duncan (15-2) sits at No. 10 and has been even hotter, stringing together five straight wins, including decisions over Roman Dolidze and former title challenger Jared Cannonier earlier this year. This is also the Brit’s first time headlining a UFC card.

On paper, it sets up as a classic grappler vs. striker matchup. Allen wants to get this fight to the mat, while Duncan carries a four-inch reach advantage and would love to keep it standing. Sportsbooks have Allen as a slight favorite, but this line has tightened since it opened.

The main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+. We break down the odds, best bets and predictions for Allen vs. Duncan and the rest of the card, plus the top sportsbook promos to use this weekend. Plus, new users can bet $5 on UFC Vegas 122 and get $150 in Bonus Bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.

MORE: Breaking down the best UFC betting sites

How to bet on UFC Vegas 122

Betting on the UFC 332 fight card is simple. First,  choose a sportsbook to bet with. DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, bet365, theScore Bet, and Fanatics all offer odds on the entire UFC 332 fight card. 

1. Choose your sportsbook

Once you choose your sportsbook, you can claim a welcome bonus. First, sign up and enter your verification information, such as your name, address, Social Security number, and other details. Once your account is confirmed, you can claim a welcome bonus from one of the sportsbooks below.

2. Learn the main MMA bet types

You can bet on MMA in several ways, including popular bet types. Moneylines let users pick an outright winner and profit if their fighter wins. Total round betting lets bettors call their own shot on how many rounds a fight will last. Prop betting offers niche markets that any MMA bettor could want.

3. Research

Successful MMA betting requires analyzing fighter statistics like strikes and takedowns, recent form, style matchups, and training camps to identify value in the odds. Key factors include researching a fighter’s opponent quality, whether long layoffs matter, and overinflated lines.

4. Place your bet

Pick the fighter you want to win, or the method of victory you want them to win by, and enjoy the fights.

MORE: Beginner’s guide to parlay betting

Where to bet on UFC Las Vegas 122

If you’re looking to get in on the betting action for UFC Vegas 122 but are new to some of the best sportsbooks in your area, take advantage of new-user promos and welcome bonuses.

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UFC Las Vegas 122 odds and best bets

The following odds are all courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.

Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight)

Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan prediction and best bet

Allen has won three consecutive fights against Marvin Vettori, Reinier de Ridder and Edmen Shahbazyan. His ability to mix wrestling with submission attempts should give Duncan problems, particularly as the fight progresses. Duncan is the more dynamic striker, but Allen doesn’t need to win extended striking exchanges to dictate the matchup. At -120, there’s value backing the more experienced fighter with multiple paths to victory.

Allen has 14 career submission victories, and his ground game is easily his biggest advantage in this matchup. Duncan has improved considerably, but Allen’s ability to chain takedowns and capitalize on positional mistakes presents a legitimate finishing threat. With five rounds to work, Allen should have plenty of opportunities to wear Duncan down before attacking the neck. I particularly like his submission chances in Rounds 3 through 5.

Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight)

Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert prediction and best bet

Camilo has the youth, athleticism and grappling advantage in this lightweight matchup. The 25-year-old Brazilian enters on a two-fight winning streak, including a first-round TKO of Nazim Sadykhov. Herbert is dangerous on the feet, with 10 career knockout victories and a significant 7.5-inch reach advantage. However, at 38, his durability is a concern. Herbert has suffered three knockout losses, and Camilo has the speed and physicality to exploit those vulnerabilities. Expect Camilo to pressure Herbert, mix in takedowns and eventually find the finish.

Camilo is the more complete fighter and should have multiple paths to victory. Herbert’s length and striking could create problems early, but Camilo’s ability to close distance and mix in wrestling should limit those advantages. We saw Camilo utilize his grappling effectively against Viacheslav Borshchev before showcasing his knockout power against Sadykhov.

Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza (Women’s Strawweight)

Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza prediction and best bet

Godinez isn’t known for her finishing ability, with just three stoppage victories in 14 career wins. However, her wrestling, cardio and ability to maintain pressure make her a difficult matchup for Souza. I expect Godinez to control the majority of the exchanges, mix in takedowns and accumulate enough control time to win on the scorecards.

Souza has legitimate knockout power, but Godinez has consistently shown the durability to survive against high-level competition. Meanwhile, Souza’s striking advantage becomes less significant if she’s spending extended periods defending takedowns. Neither fighter has demonstrated the finishing ability against elite competition that would make me eager to back a stoppage. The price is steep, making this more attractive as a parlay leg than a standalone wager.

Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III (Featherweight)

Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III prediction and best bet

Andre Fili has been a fixture at featherweight for more than a decade, but the wheels are starting to wobble. He’s lost his last two fights this year, to Vinicius Oliveira and Jose Delgado, and he’s just 2-4 since the start of 2024.

Fili is also 36, while Kamaka is five years younger and still fighting with a ton of pace. Kamaka is always moving forward and throwing, and he’s landing more often than Fili does, too. Fili’s accuracy has hovered under 40% for his career, which is a tough way to win rounds against a guy who’s busier and cleaner.

Kamaka’s TKO loss to Luke Riley is the knock on him, and Riley is a legit puncher. That said, Kamaka was actually having success early in that fight with his leg kicks before he got caught. Fili doesn’t carry the same kind of one-shot power.

Fili’s length will be the biggest obstacle, as he has a sizable reach advantage. I still think Kamaka’s work rate wins him enough exchanges to get his hand raised, and I’ll take the plus money on the younger fighter.

This one has decision written all over it. Nine of Fili’s 13 UFC wins have gone to the judges, and Kamaka has gone the distance in the large majority of his career victories, including a split decision over Dakota Hope in April.

Both guys are coming off stoppage losses, so I won’t pretend neither one can get finished. Those came against heavier hitters, though, and neither Fili nor Kamaka has been much of a finisher themselves lately.

The price isn’t cheap, but this is the most likely outcome on the board. Expect a scrappy, back-and-forth fight that lasts all 15 minutes.

Malcon Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi (Bantamweight)

Malcon Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi prediction and best bet

I don’t see this one going the distance. Wellmaker fights like his hair is on fire, and when he lands clean, opponents tend to go down fast. His first UFC win took less than two minutes, and he earned his contract with a first-round knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series.

The flip side is that Wellmaker gets hit a lot, too. He absorbs more than four significant strikes per minute, and Tanzilovi has been accurate when he lets his hands go. With two guys willing to trade, somebody is likely getting hurt before the third round.

If it hits the mat instead, that’s not great for Wellmaker either. Once Tanzilovi gets on top, Wellmaker hasn’t shown he can get back up, and a tired fighter on his back late in the second round is a prime candidate for a stoppage.

There are a few ways this ends early and really only one way it gets deep: a slow, grinding control fight. I’ll lean on the finish and take the under.

UFC Vegas 122 prelims and full card

Main Card

• Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan; Middleweights
• Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert; Lightweights
• Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza; Women’s strawweights
• Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III; Featherweights
• Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi; Bantamweights

Prelims

• Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert; Light heavyweights
• Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim; Lightweights
• Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan; Welterweights
• Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro; Light heavyweights
• Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris; Heavyweights
• Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova; Women’s bantamweights
• Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto; Women’s flyweights