The New England Patriots‘ hangover after losing Super Bowl 60 has been real in the 2026 NFL season, to the point that they likely won’t even return to the playoffs, even as an AFC wild-card team.
After being routed 35-10 in Sunday’s Week 10 interconference game vs. the Lions in Munich, Germany, the Patriots dropped to 5-5 ahead of their Week 11 bye. Adding to the sting of the loss, quarterback Drake Maye was knocked out of the game early with an ankle injury.
Regardless of Maye’s status for Week 12 vs. the Chargers and beyond, the Patriots are in danger of fading out of the AFC playoff picture as they’ve lost consecutive games for the first time in 2026. Here’s a look at where New England stands and its dwindling postseason chances:
MORE: Latest injury updates on Drake Maye
Patriots’ current playoff picture
| Ranking | Team | Record |
| 1. | Bills | 7-1 |
| 2. | Broncos | 7-2 |
| 3. | Jaguars | 6-2 |
| 4. | Steelers | 6-2 |
| 5. | Chiefs | 6-2 |
| 6. | Bengals | 6-2 |
| 7. | Browns | 5-4 |
| 8. | Patriots | 5-5 |
The Patriots fell to No. 8 in the AFC, a half-game behind the third wild-card Browns (5-4), who host the Texans in the early Sunday afternoon Week 10. According to NFL.com, the Patriots’ playoff probability has dropped to 42 percent.
In the AFC East, the Patriots trail the Bills (7-1) by three games. New England has seven games left, while the Bills will have eight after Week 10. The Patriots have slim to no hopes of repeating as division champions, with a wild-card berth as the only real path to the playoffs.
Patriots’ biggest concerns
1. Pass defense. The Patriots went into Week 10 with the No. 25-ranked pass defense, allowing on average 231.9 yards per game and 10.8 yards per completed pass. They allowed 303 passing yards to the Lions’ Jared Goff with his 20 completed passes averaging 15.1 yards. That included wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown scoring twice, on plays of 56 and 28 yards.
In the Week 9 loss to Green Bay, the Packers‘ Jordan Love passed for 372 yards and averaged 16.1 yards per completed pass. The Patriots’ secondary is struggling and there’s been only limited pressure on quarterbacks.
2. Running back injuries. The Patriots have been missing the big-play burst of TreVeyon Henderson, out indefinitely with an illness. Rhamondre Stevenson was limited in practices ahead of the Lions’ game with a knee injury. Backup Corey Kiner rushed a team-high 10 times for only 25 yards vs. Detroit. New England likes to rely on its rushing attack to boost its passing offense, but that has developed into a recent weakness.
3. A.J. Brown. The Patriots’ receiving situation is a bigger mess than last season, as an ineffective Brown has battled injuries, and fellow newcomer Romeo Doubs is on the shelf for Maye or backup QB Tommy DeVito. Mack Hollins and the tight ends being the top options in the passing game won’t cut it in bigger games. Brown had only 2 catches for 27 yards vs. the Lions and remains lost in Josh McDaniels’ offense.
Patriots’ remaining schedule
When the Patriots return from bye, this is their closing second-half slate:
- Week 12: at Chargers
- Week 13: vs. Bills
- Week 14: vs. Vikings
- Week 15: at Chiefs
- Week 16: at Jets
- Week 17: vs. Broncos
- Week 18: vs. Dolphins
That schedule is pretty tough. Their opponents’ combined winning percentage is .500, matching the Patriots. Even if Maye can play, Buffalo, Minnesota, Kansas City and Denver would stand out as the hardest matchups.
There’s little margin for error. Maye missing any more time would be enough to remove that tiny cushion, given how much the defense and running game have struggled while both are battling key injuries of late.
The Patriots have looked every bit a 5-5 team this season with their inconsistency. They are having issues well beyond the quarterback. The only hope is a muddled mess of teams at either 9-8 or 8-9, from which the Patriots will earn the No. 7 seed. Appropriately, the Patriots are truly 50-50 to make the playoffs.
MORE NFL NEWS:
