Three weeks ago, the thought of Oregon salvaging a College Football Playoff bid from a disastrous season seemed almost impossible. But the Ducks are still alive in the CFP race.

After beating Michigan 31-7 on Saturday, Dan Lanning’s team is on a three-game win streak, including two wins over ranked Big Ten opponents.

Even with three losses, Oregon has a path to the CFP — though it still won’t be easy for the Ducks after their early struggles against Oklahoma State, UCLA and Illinois.

Here’s an updated look at Oregon’s path to the CFP.

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Can Oregon still make the playoff?

In the last two seasons, a three-loss regular season has generally been considered too many for a team to overcome in the final CFP rankings, even with some strong wins. Generally, there is an expectation that the 2026 season will break that trend — but it’s anticipated that, rather than any other league, it will be a three-loss SEC team could make the field after a loaded schedule.

Oregon still doesn’t have a great chance to earn an at-large bid unless it gets significant help from other teams in the next few weeks. The Ducks’ “resume” wins would be beating USC on the road, Boise State at home and an Ohio State team without Julian Sayin in Columbus.

The easiest path for Oregon to the CFP remains a Big Ten title berth, then an upset victory in a win-and-in scenario. 

Here’s how things stand at the top of the Big Ten after Oregon’s win over Michigan and Indiana’s win over USC:

• UCLA: 7-0
• Indiana: 6-1
• Oregon: 5-2
• Ohio State: 5-2
• Iowa: 4-2

UCLA is on its way to clinching a Big Ten Championship Game berth, which would likely leave the other spot open for either Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State or Iowa. But after the Hoosiers beat USC in Week 11, Oregon’s path to the conference title game got a bit tougher.

With a one-game lead for the second spot in the standings, Indiana is now in the driver’s seat to face UCLA in the Big Ten Championship. If the Hoosiers beat Washington and Purdue over the next two weeks, that would essentially eliminate Oregon, Ohio State and Iowa from their simplest routes to the playoff.

At minimum, Oregon needs to win out. But the Ducks will either need an upset loss from Indiana, or losses from a handful of other at-large bubble teams, to sneak into the playoff. ESPN gives the Ducks a 29.5% chance of making the CFP before beating Michigan, 14.5% of which came from their chances of winning the Big Ten.

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Oregon CFP resume

*All stats entering Week 11

Part of the problem for Oregon is that Lanning’s team has been one of the toughest to evaluate across the country so far this season.

The Ducks have had two different starting quarterbacks and an offensive coordinator change. Dylan Raiola has been extremely up-and-down since taking over for Dante Moore. And Oregon’s defense struggled against Boise State, Oklahoma State and Illinois, also just generally worse than anticipated. 

But when Raiola’s been on, such as Saturday against Michigan, Oregon’s offense has clicked. The Ducks seem to have come alive after their third loss vs. Illinois; in Week 11, their offense looked spectacular, racking up 467 total yards.

TURNED ON THE BURNERS! Dierre Hill Jr. takes it 49-yards to the house for an @oregonfootball score https://t.co/hMSgoBJqHJ

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 14, 2026

If Oregon wins out and can’t win the Big Ten title, it will be right around the bubble of the final CFP rankings. The Ducks’ strength of schedule is solid enough to keep them hanging around — and ready to take advantage if another contender collapses — even if they’ve been inconsistent.

Oregon remaining schedule

The Ducks’ path to a 9-3 season and 7-2 conference record remains simple. They do not face any more ranked teams, with Michigan State in Week 12, then Washington in Week 13.

For Oregon fans, the next two weeks will likely be more about hoping for losses from other CFP contenders than worrying about the Ducks’ chances of winning out.

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