The New York Giants (5-2-1) host the Washington Commanders (2-5-1) on “Thursday Night Football” at MetLife Stadium, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video. The Giants are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings, and the total sits at 47.5.
The first meeting didn’t settle anything. The Giants and Commanders played to a 27-27 tie in Week 5 at Northwest Stadium after New York erased a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter. Washington had a chance to win it in overtime from field-goal range, but Jayden Daniels scrambled, and the clock ran out before the Commanders could spike it.
The Giants come in feeling good after a 19-11 win in Philadelphia on Sunday, their first win there since 2013. That result gave them a firmer grip on the NFC East. The question now is J.J. McCarthy’s hip. McCarthy suffered a hip pointer against the Eagles and was limited in Monday’s practice, but John Harbaugh said it looks like his quarterback will play. If McCarthy can’t go, Jameis Winston is ready after throwing the go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely in relief.
Washington doesn’t have much room left. The Commanders fell 20-13 to the Rams on Sunday, their second loss in three games, and another one on a short week would all but end their hopes in the division.
We break down the latest odds, our best bets, and sportsbook promos for Thursday night’s NFC East rematch. Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!
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Giants vs. Commanders prediction
This one sets up nicely for the Giants, as long as J.J. McCarthy’s hip holds up on a short week.
New York doesn’t need to put the game on McCarthy’s arm anyway. The Giants are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league relative to game situation, and they’re getting Cam Skattebo back after he sat out Sunday with a hamstring injury. Washington’s defense has been one of the worst in the NFL at stopping the run on a per-play basis, so Harbaugh should be happy to hand it to Skattebo and keep McCarthy out of harm’s way.
The Commanders have also had a hard time keeping teams out of the end zone. Opponents are scoring touchdowns on 79% of their red zone trips against Washington, which is a big reason the Giants were able to rip off two fourth-quarter touchdowns in the first meeting.
The concern on the other side is the Giants’ pass rush. New York ranks 31st in pressure rate, so Jayden Daniels could have time to find Stefon Diggs. That said, the Giants have been stingy where it counts most. They rank third in defensive success rate, and Washington has been the league’s worst team on third down, converting just 31.1% of the time. Drives are going to stall for the Commanders, and the Giants are good enough down to make them pay for it.
The Giants have also been one of the better bets in football this season at 6-2 against the spread, while Washington sits at 4-4. With the Commanders reeling and the Giants riding high after finally winning in Philadelphia, I’ll back New York to win and cover.
Prediction: Giants 24, Commanders 17
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Giants vs. Commanders odds
All odds are courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook. If you’re a new bet365 user, be sure to take advantage of their new-user welcome bonus
|
Team |
Spread |
Total |
Moneyline |
|
Washington Commanders |
+2.5 (-110) |
Over 41.5 (-105) |
+115 |
|
New York Giants |
-2.5 (-110) |
Under 41.5 (-115) |
-135 |
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Giants vs. Commanders best bets
Washington keeps beating itself. The Commanders botched the clock at the end of overtime in the first meeting, and they took a delay of game on a key fourth down in Sunday’s loss to the Rams. Pre-snap penalties have been a problem all season, and that’s a tough habit to break on a short week on the road.
The Giants, meanwhile, have found ways to win ugly. They held the Eagles to 11 points on Sunday and rank eighth in EPA per dropback allowed, which lines up well against a Washington offense that ranks 22nd in EPA per play. Daniels can still hurt you with his legs, but the Giants have done enough against the pass to keep this offense from moving the ball consistently.
The line has moved a full point toward New York since it opened, and I’m fine following it. The Giants are the better team, they’re at home and they’re playing with something to lose in the division race.
The first meeting going 54 points might make this number look low. That game was a mess, though, with turnovers, missed kicks and a wild fourth quarter in the rain. I don’t expect a repeat.
Both teams just played rock fights on Sunday. The Giants won 19-11 in Philadelphia, and Washington managed only 13 points against the Rams. Now they turn around on three days’ rest, with McCarthy nursing a hip pointer.
The Commanders also haven’t been great at finishing drives, scoring touchdowns on just 55% of their red zone trips. When they do get close, the Giants’ defense has been good at forcing field goals. I’ll take my chances with a slower, grind-it-out game.
Skattebo sat out Sunday with a hamstring injury, but he’s expected back Thursday, and he should step right into a big role. The Giants want to run the ball, and Harbaugh has every reason to lean on his back with McCarthy banged up.
New York has also been solid in the red zone, punching it in on 67% of their trips. Skattebo is a physical runner who gets the call near the goal line, and he’s facing a Washington defense that has given up plenty of touchdowns once teams get inside the 20. Getting plus money on him to find the end zone is a good spot.
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SGP for Giants vs. Commanders
Here is our favorite same game parlay for Thursday Night Football:
- New York Giants moneyline: The Giants have been the steadier team all season, and they’ve already taken care of business in Philadelphia with two quarterbacks playing. I trust them to find a way to win this one at home against a Washington team that keeps getting in its own way.
- Cam Skattebo anytime touchdown: Skattebo should be fresh after sitting out Sunday, and the Giants are going to feed him early and often. He’s the most likely Giant to punch it in when they get inside the 10.
- Isaiah Likely 50+ receiving yards: Washington plays zone coverage on 76.9% of snaps, and that’s the kind of look where a tight end like Likely can settle into soft spots underneath. With McCarthy banged up and likely looking for quick, easy throws, Likely could be his go-to target over the middle.
- Odds: (+525 at DraftKings)
