The 2026 NFL regular season might seem like an express train, but there’s a full second half of games left to go. On the bright side, there’s plenty more time before the playoffs to build momentum with Sporting News’ picks and predictions against the spread. The pessimist would say that also means there’s an equal number of games to get wrong.
Week 10 offers a good mix of big spreads and near pick ’em lines. Many of the favorites are on the road, facing some upset traps.
Here’s figuring where to lean on another slate of 14 matchups as we dive into another fearless forecast of professional pigskin prognostications:
MORE: SN’s latest NFL power rankings for Week 10
NFL picks against the spread for Week 10
All spreads and odds are courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
All prediction market implied probabilities are from ProphetX. ProphetX displays market percentages instead of betting odds. The percentages reflect the collective implied probability of an event.
Game of Midweek: Commanders at Giants (-1.5, 43.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Commanders and Giants played to a frustrating 27-27 tie in Washington in Week 5. New York has a two-game lead over Dallas in the weak NFC East. A win at home would get them closer to wrapping up the division title in John Harbaugh’s first season. Meanwhile, coaching counterpart Dan Quinn keeps feeling more heat. The Giants aren’t always pretty, but their defense can make the difference in a low-scoring game.
Pick: Giants win 20-17 and cover the spread.
MORE: Trade grades for biggest deadline deals
Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
AFC Game of the Week: Steelers at Bengals (-3.5, 48.5 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
The Steelers beat the Bengals 30-27 in Week 3 in Pittsburgh when Cincinnati made a few more critical mistakes. Joe Burrow didn’t have any problems picking apart the Steelers’ defense in the first meeting and will offer more reliable downfield passing to better weapons than Aaron Rodgers. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are too tough of matchups all game long.
Pick: Bengals win 27-20 and cover the spread.
NFC Game of the Week: Vikings at Packers (-3.5, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Vikings are operating on a short week and will need to dig deep for some offensive firepower to match what they did late to beat the Packers 39-22 with Carson Wentz leading the late comeback. The Packers ripped the Patriots‘ secondary and will welcome some more one-on-one matchups with Jordan Love getting blitzed. Green Bay’s defense is feeling it a little more with pressure and coverage and will keep the team from blowing another lead.
Pick: Packers win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: Rams (-7.5, 44.5 o/u) over Cardinals
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Rams hope Puka Nacua (knee) will be healthy enough to play with his latest injury, but they can still win this with Myles Garrett back healthy and leading the defense. He can stay disruptive to stuff the run and get after the quarterback. Los Angeles will remember the 18-16 home loss in Week 6 and make amends with better offensive execution.
Pick: Rams win 24-14 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Dolphins (+2.5, 40.5 o/u) over Colts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Dolphins have been pushing superior teams to the limit with their defense often hanging in well under Jeff Hafley. They just can’t win when called upon to find a passing offense that’s not there around Malik Willis. Miami will go into this old-school AFC East matchup and pound away with Ollie Gordon III.
Pick: Dolphins win 23-20.
Lions (-2.5, 51.5 o/u) vs. Patriots (in Munich)
Sunday 9:30 p.m. ET, Fox
The Lions‘ defense has been playing better of late and making big plays against the pass, providing payoff for the strong front-four pass rush powered by Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill. That’s a handful for the Patriots’ offensive line in front of Drake Maye, especially after Detroit stops the run. The Patriots will struggle with the variety and versatility of Jared Goff’s targets.
Pick: Lions win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Chiefs (-3.5, 45.5 o/u) at Falcons
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Kenneth Walker III vs. Bijan Robinson is on the marquee, but the game will be decided by passing. The Falcons are worse against the run and will struggle to put good inside pressure on Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City got well on offense against the Jets while Atlanta is slumping with Michael Penix Jr. The Chiefs win with greater balance and explosiveness.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Denny Medley/Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
Texans (-5.5, 39.5 o/u) at Browns
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Texans are hoping to sneak back into the playoff picture and their defense got back to making big plays in Los Angeles after the bye. Cleveland’s defense will get a break as Houston is one-dimensional out of neccesity, but in the end, old Texans friend Deshaun Watson will be outdueled by red-hot C.J. Stroud.
Pick: Texans win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
Jaguars (-9.5, 46.5 o/u) at Titans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Jaguars are relentless in putting away lesser opponents and will be prepared for a few twists from the Titans after the bye. Jacksonville is benefitting from a “mini-bye” after playing on Thursday night and will be locked into pressuring Cam Ward into multiple turnovers. Jacksonville will dominate with the running game once Trevor Lawrence gets the visitors ahead with big pass plays.
Pick: Jaguars win 34-13 and cover the spread.
MORE: Resetting the Jaguars’ new and improved defense
Panthers at Saints (-1.5, 47.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
These teams are tied for first place in the NFC South at 3-5. New Orleans dug deep to outlast Cleveland last week and found some needed rushing juice with Audric Estime. They also have the receivers around Tyler Shough to duel Bryce Young and his weapons well. Both defenses have been maligned but toss a coin toward Brandon Staley.
Pick: Saints win 27-24 and cover the spread.
Bills (-7.5, 50.5 o/u) at Jets
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills can keep the Jets reeling now that Geno Smith is slumping. The Jets won’t have answers for Josh Allen and James Cook running, and will give up plenty of short-to-intermediate passing. Aaron Gleen is getting to closer to the ropes and facing Buffalo after Kansas City is brutal.
Pick: Bills win 31-14 and cover the spead.
Seahawks (-3.5, 42.5 o/u) at Raiders
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Seahawks will go to the home of former offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. His replcement, Brian Fleury, will see his running game thrive against the Raiders’ league-worst run defense. Las Vegas also has no real answers to cover Jaxon Smith-Njigba for either Drew Lock or Sam Darnold. The Raiders’ lack of running game will put the Seahawks’ pass rush in position to tee off on Kirk Cousins.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-13 and cover the spread.
49ers (-4.5, 55.5 o/u) at Cowboys
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
San Francisco ripped into Las Vegas’ defense and gets to attack a similarly weak group vs. run and downfield pass in Dallas. Brock Purdy is locked into his receivers and Dak Prescott is short of having the same kind of diverse offensive weapons around him. Look for the 49ers to control the ball and the clock to give the Cowboys little margin for red zone error.
Pick: 49ers win 34-27 and cover the spread.
Chargers at Ravens (-5.5, 38.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Ravens will be starting Jacoby Brissett to try to save their offense, but they also can get back on track at home by running a lot of Derrick Henry against a wilting, winless defense. The Chargers have either a hurting Justin Herbert or an inexperienced backup, DJ Uiagalelei, starting on the road in prime time. Baltimore needs a get-well, respectable game overall as Jesse Minter gets the better of mentor Jim Harbaugh.
Pick: Ravens win 24-14 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
- Week 9 straight-up record: 13-2
- Week 9 against the spread record: 8-7
- Season-to-date straight-up record: 90-45
- Season-to-date against the spread record: 63-73
