Week 11 features four matchups between AP Top 25 teams — one in each Power 4 conference – that will help shape the wide-open College Football Playoff race.
No. 11 Wake Forest travels to No. 25 SMU at 12 p.m. on ESPN. That is another in the ACC championship race; with the conference looking to get multiple teams in the CFP.
No. 15 USC takes on No. 6 Indiana in Big Ten play at 3:30 p.m. on CBS. The Trojans are looking to avoid a third loss, and the Hoosiers have a path back to the Big Ten championship game.
No. 2 Utah faces a road test at No. 22 Arizona in Big 12 play at 7:30 p.m. ET on Fox. The Utes control their own destiny in the Big 12 championship race, and the Wildcats are among the two-loss teams trying to stay in the hunt.
Finally, No. 8 Texas has a SEC road test at No. 24 LSU. The Tigers cannot afford a fourth loss under first-year coach Lane Kiffin. The Longhorns can firm up their playoff case under coach Steve Sarkisian.
There are 21 games involving AP Top 25 teams this week.
MORE: College Football Playoff forecast ahead of Week 11
A look at our track record heading into Week 11:
S/U: 141-35, .801 (12-4 in Week 10)
ATS: 86-89-1, .492 (8-8 in Week 10)
Week 11 picks against the spread
All spreads and odds are courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
All prediction market implied probabilities are from ProphetX. ProphetX displays market percentages instead of betting odds. The percentages reflect the collective implied probability of an event.
Friday, Nov. 13
Illinois at No. 4 UCLA (-10.5) (9 p.m., Fox)
This line moved up a point. The Bruins are the only team that ranks in the top three in the Big Ten in total offense and total defense. UCLA also remains a perfect 9-0 ATS. The Illini are on a four-game winning streak and are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Illinois does allow 32 points per game on the road.
Pick: UCLA wins 26-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 14 Houston (-10.5) at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
The Cougars rank third in the Big 12 with 207.5 rushing yards per game, and they are 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite against FBS schools. Colorado has been tougher at home, but they have not scored more than 27 points against an FBS opponent. Re’Shaun Sanford – who had a season-high 126 rushing yards in Week 10 for the Cougars – will be a difference-maker on the road.
Pick: Houston wins 31-19 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Nov. 14
Duke at No. 5 Miami (-13.5) (12 p.m., ABC)
It’s the “Darian Mensah Bowl.” How will the Miami quarterback fare against his former team? Mensah was 0 of 5 on passes of 20 yards or more against Notre Dame, according to PFF.com. The Hurricanes are 1-2 ATS when favored by 14 points or less. Duke will keep it close in the first half behind Nate Sheppard, who ranks second in the FBS with 1,189 rushing yards.
Pick: Miami wins 34-22 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 11 Wake Forest (-1.5) at No. 25 SMU (12 p.m., ESPN)
Gio Lopez (leg) is day–to-day with a leg injury, and this is the Demon Deacons’ big road test in ACC play. Wake Forest has outscored its last five opponents 264-31, but Lopez’s uncertainty and the fact SMU is 6-0 S/U at home suggests this could be the landmine in the schedule.
Pick: SMU wins 31-28 in an UPSET.
Northwestern at No. 21 Ohio State (-11.5) (12 p.m., Fox)
The Buckeyes are at a crossroads after back-to-back losses to USC and Oregon. Northwestern will turn to quarterback Nicco Marchiol again if Aidan Chiles can’t go. Ohio State’s defense needs a get-right game after allowing 35.5 points in those two losses. The Buckeyes have won the last 11 meetings in the series.
Pick: Ohio State wins 34-20 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Diving into Ohio State’s playoff hopes
No. 7 Alabama (-17.5) at Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SEC Network)
Vanderbilt has committed just six turnovers this season. Alabama continues to struggle with 2.4 yards per rushing attempt in its last two games. Keelon Russell has a 66.7% completion percentage with six TDs and one interception in his last three games. Can the Commodores catch the Crimson Tide in a letdown spot?
Pick: Alabama wins 33-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 9 Tennessee (-2.5) at Texas A&M (3 p.m., ESPN)
Tennessee is winning with a defense that allows just 15.1 points per game. The Vols have allowed just three passing TDs in SEC play – which is bad news for a Texas A&M offense that has been in a season-long struggle with Marcel Reed. It’s still a tricky road spread, but Tennessee is 2-0 ATS as a single-digits favorite. Tennessee’s defense travels.
Pick: Tennessee wins 24-20 and COVERS the spread.
Boston College at No. 3 Notre Dame (-30.5) (3:30 p.m., NBC)
Notre Dame is playing Boston College after beating the No. 1 team in the country? Irish fans know exactly why they can’t take the Eagles lightly. Notre Dame is 2-2 ATS when favored by more than 21 points against FBS schools. Boston College has allowed nine rushing TDs in its last two games – meaning Nolan James Jr. (571 yards, 9 TDs) and Jonaz Walton (514 yards, 4 TDs) should pop off.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 42-14 but FAILS TO OVER the spread.
MORE: CJ Carr leads ND to magical night in win over No. 1 Miami
Adam Cairns-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
No. 15 USC at No. 6 Indiana (-7.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
This is the best game on the Big Ten schedule. Can the Trojans finally take the show on the road under Lincoln Riley with both teams coming out of the bye week? Indiana averaged 103.2 rushing yards per game in October. USC has a chance to push into playoff contention – but how will they handle a physical Indiana defense that generates 8.6 tackles for loss per game?
Pick: Indiana wins 28-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Baylor at No. 12 BYU (-7.5) (3:30 p.m., Fox)
Baylor has averaged 41.5 points in two victories since firing Dave Aranda, so it’s a dangerous spot for BYU. The Cougars are hanging on to its Big 12 championship hopes and need to win out. Baylor QB DJ Lagway averaged 274 passing yards with five TDs and no interceptions in those last two starts. The Bears have given up 200-plus rushing in two of their last three games. The Cougars get back on track at home, where they are 3-1 ATS against Power 4 schools.
Pick: BYU wins 34-24 and COVERS the spread.
Michigan at No. 18 Oregon (-10.5) (3:30 p.m., FS1)
How much will this spread move up? Michigan fired offensive coordinator Jason Beck after the Wolverines had just 192 total yards against Michigan State. The Wolverines have struggled in their two road games this season, and the Ducks are trying to make a late playoff push. The Ducks still have trouble running the ball – but Dylan Raiola averages 298 passing yards with five TDs and no interceptions in his last two starts.
Pick: Oregon wins 27-14 and COVERS the spread.
Missouri at No. 1 Georgia (-14.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Georgia is 8-0 S/U against Missouri under Kirby Smart, and the Bulldogs appear to be flexing at the right time on defense. The Bulldogs have allowed 114 rushing yards on 1.9 yards per carry the last two weeks – and this is their first true home game since the loss to Auburn. Missouri is 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season.
Pick: Georgia wins 34-14 and COVERS the spread.
No. 19 Ole Miss (-2.5) at Oklahoma (4:15 p.m., SEC Network)
This is the tricky SEC line of the week. The Rebels still have fleeting playoff hopes, but there is no margin for error the rest of the way. The Sooners have been hit or miss despite better play from John Mateer, who averages 244.7 passing yards with six TDs and no interceptions the last three weeks. The Sooners have lost their last two home games.
Pick: Ole Miss wins 28-21 but and COVERS the spread.
Oregon State at No. 17 Boise State (-10.5) (6 p.m., USA Network)
This could be an old-fashioned Pac-12 shootout. The Beavers have allowed 40 points per game the last two weeks, but they rank ninth in scoring offense with the combination of Braden Atkinson (3,169 passing yards, 25 TDs, 3 INTs) and receiver Jesse Legree (1,209 yards, 14 TDs). Boise State quarterback Max Cutforth has 450 passing yards, 7 TDs and no interceptions on just 32 attempts. The Beavers also can’t stop the run – which means another huge game for FBS rushing leader Dylan Riley (1,241 yards, 11 TDs).
Pick: Boise State wins 41-28 and COVERS the spread.
Florida at No. 13 Kentucky (-3.5) (6:15 p.m., ESPN)
If the Wildcats want to make the College Football Playoff, then this is the key game. Gators coach Jon Sumrall is a Kentucky alum, and that adds another layer for first-year coach Will Stein. Florida has just 118 rushing yards the last two weeks. The Wildcats won 38-7 in Lexington last season and are 3-0 ATS as a favorite
Pick: Kentucky wins 23-17 and COVERS the spread.
Purdue at No. 16 Iowa (-17.5) (7:30 p.m., NBC)
The Hawkeyes have clamped down on defense by allowing just 10 points the last two weeks. Purdue has allowed 33.3 points per game in losses to Washington, Penn State and Maryland through a three-game losing streak. It’s still a huge number, but the Hawkeyes have three shutouts at home this season.
Pick: Iowa wins 31-10 and COVERS the spread.
UNLV at No. 23 New Mexico (-14.5) (7:30 p.m., The CW)
New Mexico showed it can handle being ranked under coach Jason Eck. The Rebels gave up 40-plus points in losses to Air Force and Wyoming in the last three weeks. Jackson Arnold leads the Mountain West with 15 TD passes and poses an interesting test for the Lobos, who have forced 26 turnovers. New Mexico won a 40-35 shootout against the Rebels last season.
Pick: New Mexico wins 27-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 2 Utah (-2.5) at No. 22 Arizona (7:30 p.m., Fox)
Will Utah avoid an emotional letdown in a trap game on the road? This is Arizona’s last shot to make an impression in the Big 12 race. The Wildcats failed to cover as an underdog against BYU and Texas Tech. Should Devon Dampier – who has 27 total TDs – be generating more Heisman Trophy buzz? The Wildcats have won the last two meetings in the series, so be careful.
Pick: Utah wins 28-23 and COVERS the spread.
No. 8 Texas at No. 24 LSU (-3.5) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
This is easily the toughest game of the week to pick. The Tigers are on the brink of playoff elimination, and LSU’s running game sputtered in the loss to Alabama. LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt averaged 384 passing yards per game the last two weeks, but the Tigers sputtered in the red zone. Arch Manning averages 243 passing yards with seven TDs and two interceptions the last three games. The Longhorns are 2-0 S/U on the road this season, but LSU at night is a different setting. The line dropped a point, which puts the value back on the Tigers.
Pick: LSU wins 31-27 and COVERS the spread.
MORE: Is LSU out of the CFP after loss to Bama?
No. 20 South Carolina (-7.5) at Arkansas (7:45 p.m., SEC Network)
South Carolina is on a roll, and quarterback LaNorris Sellers is expected to play through an ankle injury. The Razorbacks allow 156.3 rushing yards per game. Arkansas is 1-0 ATS as a single-digit underdog, and this is a trap game of sorts for the Gamecocks, but we trust their offense more.
Pick: South Carolina wins 31-21 and COVERS the spread.
No. 10 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (-3.5) (9:30 p.m., ESPN)
Texas Tech ranks 14th in the Big 12 in pass defense. Oklahoma State ranks 11th in the Big 12 in rush defense. This is bound to turn into a shootout as a result. Ja’Koby Williams has 335 rushing yards in two games since Thomas Castellanos took over at quarterback. Drew Mestemaker has a 183.5 passer rating with 17 TDs and two INTs at home. It’s a great night-cap to Week 11.
Pick: Texas Tech wins 38-34 in an UPSET.
