The Baltimore Ravens’ season took a gut punch Sunday in Buffalo, and they don’t have much time to pick themselves up.

Lamar Jackson hurt his right thumb on Baltimore’s first offensive snap of a 36-10 loss to the Bills, and he’s now headed for surgery and injured reserve. Backup Tyler Huntley left in the second quarter with what’s believed to be turf toe, which put undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano under center for the rest of the afternoon. Fagnano went 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception in his NFL debut, and he could be making his first career start Thursday night.

That’s a rough setup for the Ravens (4-4), who have lost three straight and managed just 10 and 13 points in their last two games. Baltimore opened as a 3-point favorite on the lookahead line and is now an 8.5-point home underdog at DraftKings, with the total sliding from 48.5 to 43.5.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) couldn’t be walking into this one in better shape. They throttled the Colts 42-7 on Sunday to stretch their lead in the AFC South, and Bhayshul Tuten ran for 104 yards and a touchdown on just 16 carries. Now Trevor Lawrence and company get a banged-up Baltimore team on a short week at M&T Bank Stadium.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. We break down our best bets for Jaguars vs. Ravens, plus the latest odds, sportsbook promos, and more.  Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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Ravens vs. Jaguars prediction

It’s hard to build a case for Baltimore right now, and the advanced analytics don’t help.

The Ravens’ offensive numbers this season were built with Jackson and Huntley under center, and even then they were pretty middle of the pack. Baltimore leans on the run more than almost anyone, which is a problem this week. Jacksonville owns the best rush defense in the league by EPA, so the Ravens’ most comfortable path to moving the ball runs straight into the Jaguars’ biggest strength.

That puts it on Fagnano, and that’s a tough ask. Baltimore’s offensive line has struggled to keep pressure off the quarterback all season, and Fagnano already took a beating in Buffalo. Jacksonville also tightens up when it counts, holding opponents to touchdowns on just 40% of red-zone trips. Even if the Ravens string a few first downs together, I’d expect a lot of field goal attempts and punts.

On the other side, Lawrence has been one of the most efficient passers in football, with the Jaguars ranking second in EPA per dropback. They also convert third downs at a 48.2% clip, so they’ll be able to stay on the field and keep a rookie quarterback on the sideline.

This feels like a pretty big win for the Jags.

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Ravens 10

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Ravens vs. Jaguars odds

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Ravens vs. Jaguars best bets

Jacksonville has been one of the most reliable teams in football when they’re laying points. The Jaguars are 12-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 games as a favorite, and they haven’t been squeaking by, either. They covered as 10.5-point favorites against the Colts on Sunday and beat the Browns by 24 earlier this season while laying 8.5.

This is also a great spot for Lawrence to pick apart a defense. Jacksonville’s offensive line has kept him clean for most of the season, ranking fifth in pressure rate allowed, and Baltimore hasn’t generated much of a pass rush. If Lawrence has time to work, he’s going to find Brenton Strange and his receivers in space, especially against a Ravens defense that’s given up its share of explosive plays.

The bigger concern for Baltimore is the other side of the ball. Fagnano threw an interception and lost a fumble in his debut, and now he gets a full game against a Jaguars defense that ranks top five in completion percentage allowed. Jacksonville doesn’t give up much through the air, and the Ravens have already lost three straight with better quarterbacks under center.

Baltimore has also been a tough team to back at home. The Ravens are 0-3 against the spread at M&T Bank Stadium this season and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five as a home underdog. I don’t see a rookie making his first start on a short week being the thing that flips that.

Jacksonville should be able to lean on the run, stay ahead of the chains, and make Fagnano play from behind. That’s not a recipe this Ravens offense is built for, and I expect the Jaguars to pull away in the second half.

Derrick Henry has stayed under this number in each of his last three games, and the Ravens’ offense hasn’t given him much room to work. He ran for 58 yards against the Browns, 45 against the Bengals and 53 against the Bills, and he’s averaging just 4.0 yards per carry this season. That’s a big dip for a back who’s made a career out of wearing defenses down.

Now he gets the toughest run defense he’s seen all year. Jacksonville rarely lets backs get loose, and they rank seventh in success rate allowed, so they’re winning on early downs and putting offenses behind schedule. The Jaguars also don’t have to respect much of a passing threat with Fagnano under center. Expect them to load the box and dare a rookie to beat them over the top.

The volume question is where this one gets interesting. Baltimore wants to run the ball more than just about anyone, and you could argue Henry sees a heavy workload with a backup quarterback in the game. That said, game script has already taken carries away from him. Henry got just 11 attempts in Buffalo once the Ravens fell behind, and with Jacksonville laying 8.5, a similar script is very much in play.

Even if Baltimore stays patient, Henry needs a lot to go right to get to 71 yards against this front. The Jaguars are going to stack the line, the Ravens’ offensive line has been shaky, and Fagnano took three sacks in his debut. I’ll back the defense to keep the big back in check.

I know, backing a Ravens receiver with a rookie making his first start feels like a stretch. But this is a low number for a player who’s been one of the best wideouts in football this season.

Zay Flowers went over 50 receiving yards in each of his first six games, and he’s averaging more than 100 per game. Even more telling is what he did once Jackson went down with the ankle injury. With Huntley under center, Flowers still put up 53, 66, and 137 yards, and he caught 22 passes over that three-game stretch. The quarterback changed, but the Ravens kept finding ways to get him the ball.

That’s what I’m expecting Thursday. Baltimore isn’t going to ask Fagnano to push the ball downfield 20 yards at a time. The easiest way to get him comfortable is quick throws, screens, and short crossers, and Flowers is the guy you want with the ball in his hands on those plays. He’s dangerous after the catch, and one broken tackle can cover most of this number on its own.

The Jaguars’ defense also has a soft spot here. They’ve struggled to limit chunk plays, ranking 23rd in explosive play rate allowed, and they give up a lot of depth on throws against them. Jacksonville sits in zone coverage on nearly three-quarters of their snaps, so Flowers should find holes underneath and room to run once he gets the ball.

Game script helps, too. If the Jaguars jump out early, the Ravens will have to throw more than they’d like, and Flowers is going to be the first read on most of those dropbacks. I only need about four catches at his usual clip to get there.

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SGP for Ravens vs. Jaguars

Here is our favorite same game parlay for Thursday Night Football:

• Jaguars -8.5: Jacksonville has already put together blowout wins over the Patriots and Colts this season, and this Ravens team looks a lot more like those opponents with a rookie under center. I trust the Jaguars to build a lead and keep pulling away while Baltimore struggles to answer.
• Parker Washington 63+ receiving yards: Parker Washington had a quiet afternoon against the Colts because Jacksonville barely needed to throw, but he’s still the team’s leading receiver and averaging more than 60 yards per game. He’s Lawrence’s go-to target on third down, and he should have plenty of chances to make plays against a Ravens secondary that’s been middle of the pack against the pass.
• Derrick Henry under 69.5 rushing yards: This leg pairs nicely with the Jaguars spread, since a Baltimore deficit means fewer handoffs for the big back. Jacksonville doesn’t have to worry about Fagnano beating them deep, so they can crowd the line and make every yard a grind for Henry.
• Odds: (+385 at DraftKings)