Looking at the AFC North standings at the midway point of the 2026 NFL season will reveal two surprises.
First, no one expected the division to have all four teams with a .500 or better record coming out of Week 8.
Second, the Ravens are in last place and may be fading out of a race many expected them to win with Lamar Jackson battling another injury-riddled season.
With nine weeks left before the playoffs, the race is likely down to the other three, all winning teams — Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. After the Steelers avenged an earlier loss by routing the Browns and the Bengals survived a Titans upset bid in overtime, here’s first a look at the updated standings after Sunday:
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AFC North standings going into Week 9
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
- Cleveland Browns (5-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
The Steelers lead the Bengals by a half-game with that extra win as the Bengals already have had their bye. The Steelers also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating the Bengals at home in Week 3. The teams will play again in Cincinnati in Week 10 after the Steelers enjoy a Week 9 bye.
The Bengals are 1-1 in division play with that Steelers loss and a win over the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 7. The Browns dropped to 2-1 in division play. They beat the Steelers at home in Week 4 and the Ravens at home in Week 6. The Bengals and Browns will first meet in Cleveland in Week 13 and have their rematch in Cincinnati in Week 18.
The Ravens are 0-2 in the division, having lost once each to the Bengals and Browns. They will first face the Steelers in Week 15 at Pittsburgh and then again in Week 18 in Baltimore. Facing the prospect of Jackson not playing again this season, history shows it’s fair to write off the last-place Ravens in such a tough division race.
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AFC North second-half projections
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Remaining schedule strength: No. 25 in the NFL (.470)
The Steelers improved to 4-0 at home on Sunday and are 2-1 in the division. They have gone on a four-game winning streak since a tough loss at Cleveland in Week 4. Aaron Rodgers and the running game led by Jaylen Warren have kept the offense balanced and explosive. The defense has allowed an average of 14 points over the past four games, while the Steelers’ margin of victory has averaged 12 points.
Pittsburgh will need to work to keep up its momentum after the bye with the Cincinnati rematch looming on Sunday night in Week 10. Winning just that one game would give the Steelers a huge edge in winning the division.
The Steelers still have several favorable interdivision matchups: Eagles, Texans, Panthers and Titans. Their toughest games are against the Broncos (at home in Week 12) and Jaguars (on the road in Week 14). Pittsburgh is also playing complete, complementary football. The Steelers have raised their big-play potential on both sides of the ball. Everything about Rodgers being comfortable playing for Mike McCarthy again has come to fruition.
Pittsburgh is far from a pretty, perfect team. But they are flashing their classic mental and physical toughness with few glaring weaknesses. The changeup from Mike Tomlin was well-timed for Rodgers’ presumed last NFL season.
Projection: Steelers finish 6-3 to end 12-5
Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
Remaining schedule strength: No. 19 in the NFL (.493)
The Bengals made it too interesting against the one-win Titans at home on Sunday, but Joe Burrow’s MVP-caliber play bailed them out from their early mistakes, including some of his own. The Bengals’ losses so far are at Pittsburgh in Week 3 and at Jacksonville in Week 4. Those are reasonable defeats, both in tight one-possession games they could have won.
On the flip side, Cincinnati also was too close to losing to Tennessee, Miami and Tampa Bay. The Bengals still stand out at 3-1 on the road and 4-2 in conference play.
Because of volatility with their pass-heavy offense, slow starts and tendency to play close games, the Bengals are week-to-week contenders. For example, playing the Falcons in Spain in Week 9 and the Chiefs at home in Week 14 set up a wide range of outcomes for tight matchups.
Projection: Bengals finish 6-4 to end at 11-6
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Cleveland Browns (5-3)
Remaining schedule strength: No. 24 in the NFL (.470
The Browns have won all five of their games because of Deshaun Watson winning drives in the fourth quarter. In their three losses, they have been outscored by a combined 50 points. Before losing to the Steelers on Sunday, they fell to the Jaguars and Jets.
All five of the wins have been improbable. Five plays going differently would have the Browns more like what everyone expected at a potential 0-8. Getting the Saints, Texans, a bye and the Raiders make it feel like the Browns are positioned to rebound and go on a run. But no one would be surprised if they lost all three games handily.
Cleveland, beyond getting Cincinnati twice, will have to grind to beat anyone. That includes Browns’ games against the Falcons, Giants, Ravens and Colts.
The Browns have overachieved to the point it’s easy to believe there’s a hard regression to the mean coming in the second half.
Projection: Browns finish 3-6 to end at 8-9
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Updated AFC North prediction
- Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5)
- Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
- Cleveland Browns (8-9)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-10)
The Steelers are in the driver’s seat and can steer toward their first time repeating as division champions since the 2016 and 2017 seasons. Their running game and defense will become bigger strengths when the weather turns down the stretch. Even if they lose the Bengals rematch in Week 10, there’s enough there to maintain their edge by at least one game in the end.
The Bengals will need to be more consistent to win the division but should at least fall back on a wild-card berth. Numbers say the Browns are in for a hard fall in the second half, while the Ravens’ fate seems already written.
