The Green Bay Packers return to Lambeau Field on Thursday night still stewing over the one that got away in Detroit.

Green Bay (4-3) had its three-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 20-17 loss to the Lions, a game that turned on a pair of missed field goals, a blocked kick and a late offside penalty that set up Jake Bates’ walk-off winner. The loss dropped the Packers to last place in a loaded NFC North, and Matt LaFleur’s group now has just four days to regroup before welcoming in a Carolina team with plenty to shake off itself.

The Carolina Panthers (3-3) were run off their own field Sunday in a 43-13 loss to Tampa Bay, their worst showing of the season. That said, Bryce Young and company are still right in the thick of a wide-open NFC South race, and a road win in prime time would go a long way toward wiping away last week’s mess.

Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite with the total sitting around 47.5 ahead of Thursday’s 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff on Prime Video. We break down our best bets, predictions, and the top sportsbook promos for Packers vs. Panthers on Thursday Night Football. Basketball season is the perfect time to get into betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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Packers vs. Panthers odds

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Packers vs. Panthers prediction

The Packers’ offense has been a strange mix this season. Green Bay is one of the most explosive teams in the league through the air, with Jordan Love pushing the ball downfield as well as almost anyone, yet the run game has been the least efficient in the NFL by EPA per rush. That’s what turned Sunday’s loss in Detroit into a field-goal fest, and the Packers have scored touchdowns on just over half of their red-zone trips.

Thursday sets up as a chance to fix some of that. Carolina’s defense ranks near the bottom of the league against the run by EPA, and Josh Jacobs now has a game under his belt after his season debut. The Panthers also struggle to keep teams out of the end zone once they get close, allowing touchdowns on 77% of red-zone trips. Love should get his deep shots too, since Carolina gives up one of the highest average depths of target in the league.

The Panthers want to play fast and throw it, ranking second in both pace and pass rate over expectation. That approach runs straight into one of the NFL’s best pass defenses. Green Bay ranks fifth in EPA per dropback allowed and rarely gives up big plays, which takes away a lot of what Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan do best. Carolina’s offensive line has also allowed pressure at the second-highest rate in the league, and Young won’t have much time on a short week in a hostile building.

That said, the Packers haven’t exactly been great at getting home, ranking in the bottom half in pressure rate. Young will have some clean pockets, and the Panthers’ tempo can produce points in bunches if Green Bay’s offense stalls again.

I think the Packers clean up enough of their red-zone mistakes to pull away late, with Love hitting a couple of chunk plays and Jacobs giving them a little more balance than they’ve had all season.

Prediction: Packers 27, Panthers 20

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Packers vs. Panthers best bets

Carolina is going to throw the ball plenty on Thursday, and I’m not going to pretend otherwise. Dave Canales’ offense leans on the pass as much as anyone, and if the Packers jump out to a lead, Bryce Young could be dropping back 40-plus times. He’s already shown what he can do in a shootout, throwing for 361 yards in the opener against Chicago.

The problem is the matchup. Green Bay plays zone on more than three-quarters of its snaps and does a good job keeping receivers in front of them, ranking in the top three at limiting explosive plays. That forces Young to grind his way down the field with shorter throws, and stringing together long drives at Lambeau on a short week is a tough ask for an offense coming off a 13-point performance.

The Panthers have also struggled to put up numbers away from home. Dating back to last season, their last six road games have all finished with fewer than 40 combined points, and Young hasn’t needed to pile up yardage in those spots. Sunday’s blowout loss to Tampa Bay didn’t do much to suggest this offense has figured things out on the fly.

Green Bay’s defense isn’t perfect, and they’ve let opponents move the chains on third down more than I’d like. Still, I’ll trust a unit that ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed to keep Young in the low 200s.

Chuba Hubbard and the Carolina ground game won’t find much room on Thursday. Green Bay ranks ninth in EPA per rush allowed, and if the Packers can take away the run early, the Panthers become a one-dimensional offense trying to throw against one of the league’s stingiest secondaries.

Carolina hasn’t been bad in the red zone this season, turning roughly 70% of their trips inside the 20 into touchdowns. That’s a legit concern against a Packers defense that’s given up its share of touchdowns once teams get close. The bigger question is how often the Panthers get there. Green Bay has allowed points on fewer red-zone possessions than all but five teams, and long, methodical drives haven’t been Carolina’s calling card.

The travel doesn’t help either. The Panthers are flying north on a short week after getting embarrassed at home, and Young’s protection has been shaky enough that a couple of drive-killing sacks feel likely. My projection has Carolina landing right around 20 points, and I’d be surprised if this offense cracked the mid-20s at Lambeau.

Game script is the biggest thing working against Hubbard on Thursday. Carolina already leans on the pass more than just about any offense in the league, and that tendency only grows if the Panthers fall behind at Lambeau. A trailing team on the road isn’t going to keep feeding its running back between the tackles in the second half.

Green Bay has also been solid against the run all season, holding opponents to negative EPA per carry. The Packers’ front doesn’t get beat for many long runs, and without a couple of chunk gains, Hubbard will have a tough time grinding his way past 70 yards on volume alone.

There’s a path to the over if this stays close and Carolina commits to the ground game to protect Bryce Young from Green Bay’s pass rush. I just don’t see Dave Canales abandoning what’s worked for this offense, and the Panthers’ best chance to keep pace is through the air.

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SGP for Packers vs. Panthers

Here is our favorite same game parlay for Thursday Night Football:

• Green Bay Packers moneyline: The Packers have a big edge on defense, and Carolina’s unit has been middle of the pack at best, ranking 20th in EPA per play allowed. I expect Green Bay to bounce back at home and handle a Panthers team that just gave up 43 points to Tampa Bay.
• Josh Jacobs touchdown: Jacobs already found the end zone in his season debut last week, and he should see an even bigger share of the work with a game under his belt. He’s the clear go-to back near the goal line, and Carolina has had a tough time stopping teams once they get inside the 20.
• Matthew Golden  50+ receiving yards: Carolina plays zone coverage as much as any team in the league, and Golden’s speed makes him a tough cover when he’s working the seams and finding soft spots downfield. Love has been aggressive pushing the ball vertically this season, so Golden only needs a couple of connections to get past 50 yards.

Odds: (+315 at DraftKings)