Week 7 turned the college football world upside down, and the fallout carries right into Saturday’s slate.

Auburn knocked off No. 1 Georgia in Athens, and the Tigers’ reward is a home date with No. 18 LSU. Lane Kiffin’s team is a 7.5-point road favorite at Jordan-Hare Stadium, even with Auburn riding the biggest win the program has had in years.

Miami takes over the top spot in the polls and opens its run at No. 1 against a Pitt team that has lost two straight and is down to its backup quarterback. The Hurricanes are 20.5-point favorites at Hard Rock Stadium.

BYU climbed to No. 2 after outlasting Notre Dame, and now the Cougars head to Orlando as 6.5-point favorites against UCF. SMU, meanwhile, is laying 19.5 points at home against Cal.

We break down our best bets for Week 8 below, including picks for Auburn vs. LSU, Miami vs. Pitt and more. Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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College Football Week 8 best bets

Auburn vs. LSU odds

All odds are courtesy of bet365.

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Auburn vs. LSU best bet

The easy narrative is that Auburn is due for a letdown after its biggest win in years. I’m not sure the matchup supports it.

Byrum Brown was the best player on the field in Athens, running for 115 yards and throwing for 150 more. Auburn outrushed Georgia 192-113 and had run 54 plays to Georgia’s 27 by the time Brown’s 5-yard run put the Tigers up 24-14. That’s an offense that can shorten the game and keep LSU’s offense on the sideline.

LSU looks like a different team away from Baton Rouge. All five of the Tigers’ wins have come at home, and they’re 0-2 on the road after losing 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 at Kentucky. Kiffin’s group also hasn’t won an SEC road game in three seasons, a streak that dates back to before he arrived.

Auburn’s concern is up front. LSU’s defense has 27 sacks, which ties for the second-most in the country, and Auburn’s offensive line has given up 23. That said, Brown is tough to bring down, and Kirby Smart said as much after Saturday’s game. I feel like this is a must-bet spot fading LSU.

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Miami vs. Pitt odds

Miami vs. Pitt best bet

I flipped back and forth on this one, but 20.5 points is too many against this Pitt defense.

The Panthers are elite against the run. They rank second in the country in PPA per rush and line yards allowed, and they stuff opposing ball carriers at or behind the line on 28.2% of carries. Miami’s ground game has been strong too, but I don’t see the Hurricanes simply leaning on the run and pulling away.

That leaves it on Darian Mensah’s arm, and that’s where Pitt is vulnerable. The Panthers rank 80th in PPA per pass and have been near the bottom of the country in limiting explosive plays. Even so, Mensah’s production has come from efficiency more than chunk plays. Miami leads the nation in completion rate at 77.6%, but its average depth of target is 6.66 yards, which ranks 128th. The Hurricanes move the ball by dinking and dunking down the field, and that’s a tougher way to cover three touchdowns.

Miami also doesn’t play fast. The Hurricanes rank 86th in pace at 59.2 plays per game, and fewer possessions make a big number harder to cover.

The obvious knock on Pitt is the quarterback spot. Mason Heintschel is out for the season, and whoever starts between Holden Geriner and Corey Dailey won’t light up the scoreboard. The good news for the Panthers is that Miami’s defense doesn’t create much chaos. The Hurricanes rank 98th in havoc rate, so a backup quarterback shouldn’t be under siege all afternoon.

The market seems to agree. This line opened at Miami -23.5 and has dropped three points even with most of the money on the Hurricanes. Miami will probably win comfortably, but I like Pitt’s defense to keep this within three touchdowns.

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Cal vs. SMU odds

Cal vs. SMU best bet

This total asks SMU to do most of the heavy lifting, and I’m not sure the Mustangs’ offense is built to put up that many points.

Start with Cal, because the Bears have one of the worst offenses in the country. Cal ranks 135th in PPA per play and 129th in success rate, and the offensive line has been a mess. The Bears rank 135th in line yards, and opponents are stuffing their runs at or behind the line on more than a quarter of carries. When Cal does move the ball, it struggles to finish, averaging just 2.36 points per scoring opportunity.

SMU’s defense is a tough draw for a unit like that. The Mustangs rank 12th in havoc rate and seventh in third-down defense, holding opponents to a 28.6% conversion rate.

The pace is what gives me some pause. SMU runs the eighth-fastest offense in the country, and Cal throws the ball on almost 62% of its plays, so there’ll be plenty of snaps and clock stoppages. Cal’s run defense is also bad enough that SMU should be able to move the ball whenever it wants.

Even so, the Mustangs move it in small chunks. SMU completes 71.6% of its passes, third-best in the nation, but its average depth of target ranks dead last at 6.01 yards. Long, methodical drives burn clock, and SMU hasn’t been great at finishing them, ranking 85th in points per scoring opportunity.

SMU can win this one comfortably without the game reaching the mid-50s. I’m happy to back a Cal offense that rarely reaches the end zone and an SMU offense that has to grind for its points.

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BYU vs. UCF odds

BYU vs. UCF best bet

BYU is coming off an emotional, physical win over Notre Dame, so I get why this is being treated as a letdown spot. I’m not buying it. The Cougars just moved up to No. 2, and this team has played with a steady, workmanlike approach all season.

The line has already dropped from 9.5 to 6.5, and I’m happy to grab BYU at less than a touchdown.

The Cougars’ offense is one of the cleanest in the country. BYU ranks third in havoc rate allowed, meaning they rarely give up sacks, tackles for loss or turnovers, and they’re 10th in third-down conversion at 51.7%. Once the Cougars get close, they cash in, ranking ninth in points per scoring opportunity at 4.85.

UCF’s defense does a good job of limiting explosive plays, but that’s never been how BYU wins. The Cougars grind teams down with a ground game that ranks 13th in PPA per rush, and UCF has struggled to get off the field, ranking 96th on third down.

To UCF’s credit, the passing game has been efficient. The Knights complete 68.2% of their throws, which ranks 15th nationally, so they can move the ball through the air. The trouble comes when they hand it off. UCF ranks 119th in PPA per rush and 130th in line yards, and BYU’s front stuffs runs at or behind the line 22% of the time.

When the run game stalls, the Knights get stuck in third-and-long, and they convert just 32.3% of third downs. BYU’s defense also ranks 17th in havoc rate, so it should be able to make UCF’s offense one-dimensional.

UCF has been much better at home, but BYU is the more complete team.

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Players to watch this weekend

Bear Bachmeier, QB, BYU

Bear Bachmeier did a little bit of everything in BYU’s 28-24 win over Notre Dame. He threw for 224 yards and the go-ahead touchdown to Walker Lyons with 1:47 left, ran for two scores, and even caught a 15-yard touchdown on a double-pass trick play.

Bachmeier also had something to prove, saying after the game that Notre Dame had disrespected him and his family during his recruitment. That chip on his shoulder has made him the heartbeat of a BYU team that’s now 6-0 and ranked No. 2.

The Cougars like to lean on the run, and Bachmeier’s legs are a big part of that. If UCF sells out to stop BYU’s running backs, Bachmeier should find plenty of room on keepers.

Kevin Jennings, QB, SMU

Kevin Jennings has been about as efficient as any quarterback in the country. The senior has completed 72.9% of his passes for 1,834 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions, and earlier this season he passed Ben Hicks as SMU’s career passing leader.

Jennings does most of his damage underneath, picking defenses apart with quick, accurate throws. He completed a school-record 21 straight passes against Missouri State and later threw for four touchdowns against Syracuse.

Cal’s defense has been leaky on third down, so expect Jennings to keep the chains moving Saturday. The question is whether those long drives turn into touchdowns or field goals.

Trey’Dez Green, TE, LSU

Trey’Dez Green is one of the best tight end prospects in the country, and at 6-foot-7, he’s a matchup problem for just about any defense. Green set LSU’s single-season record for touchdown catches by a tight end last year with seven, and he broke the program’s career record in the Texas Bowl.

Lane Kiffin’s offenses have always found ways to feature the tight end, and Green opened this season with four catches for 58 yards in the win over Clemson.

Auburn’s defense will be focused on slowing down Sam Leavitt and LSU’s passing game, and Green should be a key target in the red zone at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

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