The Atlanta Dream are two wins away from the first championship in franchise history, and they’ll have a packed State Farm Arena behind them when they host the Golden State Valkyries in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals on Saturday afternoon.

Atlanta grabbed a 2-1 series lead with a 97-71 rout in Game 3 on Wednesday night. It was the Dream’s second straight lopsided win after they dropped the opener 68-64 at Chase Center. Angel Reese has carried them through it. She put up 21 points and 12 rebounds in Game 3 after a 30-point, 16-rebound performance in Game 2, and she has a double-double in all three games of the series.

Golden State’s biggest problem has been holding onto the ball. The Valkyries turned it over 17 times in Game 3, and Atlanta turned those giveaways into 22 points. Still, this is the same Golden State group that swept the defending champion Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals and erased a big deficit to win Game 1. Writing them off after one bad night would be a mistake.

Oddsmakers expect the Dream to keep rolling at home. Atlanta opened as a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total sitting at 153.5.

We break down our best bets for Game 4 below, including an Angel Reese pick, along with the latest odds and sportsbook promos. The WNBA Finals is the perfect time to get into WNBA betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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Valkyries vs. Dream odds

All odds are courtesy of bet365.

Valkyries vs. Dream prediction

I know how it looks after Wednesday. Atlanta ran Golden State out of State Farm Arena in Game 3, and the building is going to be loud again Saturday afternoon. Still, I’m taking the Valkyries to win this one outright.

Start with how strange Game 3 was for the Dream’s offense. Atlanta shot 49.3% from the field after failing to reach 35% in either of the first two games. They also hit nine 3-pointers, their most of the series. I don’t think the Dream suddenly became a different shooting team over a four-day stretch. Against the best defense of the postseason, I expect their percentages to drift back toward where they were in Games 1 and 2.

The Valkyries also know they can beat this team. They went 3-0 against Atlanta in the regular season, and their Game 1 win snapped the Dream’s 10-game winning streak. Gabby Williams has been the steady piece all series. She dropped 26 points in the opener and still dished out eight assists in the Game 3 loss. If Golden State cleans up the sloppy possessions and keeps this in the 60s and 70s, the matchup tilts back their way.

There’s also the urgency piece. Golden State has Game 5 at Chase Center, but heading home down 3-1 would mean facing elimination in front of their own fans. Coach Natalie Nakase’s group has handled pressure well all postseason, and I expect their best defensive effort of the series with so much on the line.

The third quarter is the one spot that gives me pause. Atlanta has outscored Golden State 63-35 in third quarters this series, so the Valkyries can’t let another run snowball the way it did Wednesday. That said, at +161, I’m happy to back the better defensive team to steal one on the road and even this series.

Prediction: Valkyries 74, Dream 70

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Valkyries vs. Dream best bet

The third quarter is the one spot that gives me pause. Atlanta has outscored Golden State 63-35 in third quarters this series, so the Valkyries can’t let another run snowball the way it did Wednesday. That said, getting 4.5 points with the better defensive team in a game I expect to stay in the 60s and 70s is too good to pass up. I like Golden State to steal one on the road and even this series, but the points give me a cushion if Atlanta’s crowd keeps it close late.

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Best WNBA sportsbook promos

Here are some of the current sportsbook welcome offers to consider when comparing legal betting sites. Promotions change frequently and depend on state eligibility.

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Best Rhyne Howard player prop

Rhyne Howard has had a rough go of it in these Finals. She scored 12 points in Game 1 and just five in Game 2 before breaking out for 16 on Wednesday. Even that number needs some context, though. Howard went to the free-throw line 10 times in Game 3 and knocked down seven, which is the only reason she slipped over this number by half a point.

I don’t see her living at the stripe like that again. Golden State’s perimeter defenders have the length to bother her jumper, and that’s been the story for most of this series. When Howard has had to create her own looks against them, the shots just haven’t fallen.

She can have a big afternoon in front of the home crowd, and Atlanta will keep looking for her. That said, Reese has become the focal point of the Dream’s offense, and I expect Howard to land somewhere in the low teens again on Saturday.