The 2026-27 season is shaping up to be the year of Wemby. If he plays in 65 games, Victor Wembanyama is a virtual lock for Defensive Player of the Year. He’s also the betting favorite for MVP, and his Spurs team is a hair behind the Thunder for best championship odds.
Fortunately, Wemby can’t win Coach of the Year, Sixth Man, or Rookie of the Year, leaving some intrigue to the other end-of-season awards. As part of my annual tradition, I’m picking winners for all of them. There are some obvious winners, along with some off-the-beaten-path choices that are being slept on.
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RANKING THE NBA STARTERS: 1-10 | 11-150
Most Valuable Player: Victor Wembanyama
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Wembanyama is the favorite for the MVP award, but he’s far from a lock. For one thing, the Spurs star has averaged only 60.3 games played per season, making it a real possibility that he falls short of the 65-game eligibility requirement. For another, the competition here is steep.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is virtually guaranteed to be on a team that is near the top of the West standings. He’s won the last two awards, and there is no sign that he’s slowing down. Voter fatigue will work against him, as it did with Nikola Jokic after his back-to-back wins. And the new refereeing points of emphasis that disallow arm extensions on drives may make life more difficult for the Thunder star.
Nikola Jokic is always a strong contender for this award as well. Jokic did start to decline last year, mostly as a result of injuries. Those may have been temporary, but they’re enough of a worry for me to put him third on my list ahead of Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Wembanyama, on the other hand, has skyrocketed in growth throughout his first three years. It’s scary to think that he’s going to be even better this season. He’s already the best defender in the league by a mile. His shooting, strength, and synergy with teammates will continue to improve. If he stays healthy, this is his award to win.
MORE: Sporting News POTY: Why Victor Wembanyama was the choice
Rookie of the Year: Cameron Boozer, Grizzlies
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The Rookie of the Year race is wide open. This class is expected to be terrific, and there will be several strong contenders.
I like the No. 3 pick, Cameron Boozer, coming away with the hardware. Boozer is a winner who has dominated every level of basketball, from high school to college to the international tournament scene. He played well in Summer League, and he’s also been very productive during the preseason. His high-feel game translates to pretty much any situation, and the Grizzlies have built a good one for him to dominate.
Memphis is a strong contender to overachieve relative to expectations. While they traded away all of their star players over the past two seasons, they do still have a lot of good depth and supporting pieces that fit well around Boozer.
Boozer is a talented passing hub, post player, shooter, and ballhandler. He will get a chance to showcase all of those skills as the focal point of Memphis’ offense. He’s also landed next to a great center pairing in Zach Edey that can help mitigate his lack of rim protection.
Boozer might not be the best player in this class when all is said and done, but he should be the one who has the most impressive rookie year.
NBA PROJECTED WIN TOTALS: Eastern Conference | Western Conference
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
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Betting markets are putting Wemby’s preseason odds somewhere between 70 to 80 percent to win back-to-back DPOYs. He’s the best rim protector in the league by a mile, he completely changes the geometry of the floor because nobody wants to shoot it when he’s near them, and he has the foot speed to be competitive when switched onto guards. He’s winning this award if he makes the 65-game requirement.
The more interesting question is who takes the award if Wemby’s out of the running. My pick is Scottie Barnes, who was robbed of a First Team All-Defensive selection last season.
The Raptors are going to be an elite defense this season. Darko Rajakovic has gotten his team to improve every year, and subbing Kawhi Leonard for a weak defender in Brandon Ingram is only going to make them better. They should be somewhere in the top five at worst.
Barnes is the head of that snake. He puts up gaudy block and steal numbers, but his impact goes far beyond that. He does his work early, preventing opponents from getting into the actions they’re trying to run. He is one of the few players in the league that can legitimately guard every position. And he shuts down the best opposing player every night.
MORE: Victor Wembanyama’s DPOY potential in two blocks
Most Improved Player: Zach Edey, Grizzlies
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Edey was one of the most polarizing prospects that we’ve seen coming out of the draft. Some thought that his post scoring and slow feet would prevent him from sticking in the league. He’s proven that wrong, scoring capably, rebounding at a dominant level, and turning into a plus defender.
Edey’s growth as a player has gone way under the radar due to injury issues. After being a relative workhorse at Purdue, he hurt his left ankle during his first Summer League and has had problems with it ever since. That ankle limited him to just 11 games last season, where he was still wildly productive. Offseason surgery has hopefully fixed that issue for him.
If Edey is on the court, he is going to dominate again. His massive 7-foot-3, 305-pound frame makes him a problem for everyone. He’s slated to be the starter for the Grizzlies, and he should sleepwalk his way into averaging a double-double. He’ll have a nice story to tell, from potential draft bust to above-average starting center in the league.
NBA BOLD PREDICTIONS: Eastern Conference | Western Conference
Sixth Man of the Year: Dylan Harper, Spurs
Harper should already be starting over De’Aaron Fox. If that fails to happen by the midpoint of the season, then Harper is going to be the most overqualified bench player in the league.
Harper already proved that he’s probably the second-best Spur on the team during the NBA Finals, where he averaged 18 points, six rebounds, and three assists per game. He was brilliant in Game 5, scoring 25 points. He’s a solid defender, a ridiculous finisher at the rim, and a competent 3-point shooter. He was a much better bench contributor than teammate Keldon Johnson, who won the award last season.
The Spurs will get a ton of national coverage again, and a talking point all year will be why Harper isn’t starting. He’s going to be the best player on the best bench on possibly the best team in the league. He’s a shoo-in for this award.
MORE: Ranking the NBA’s top defensive players 1-10 | 11-100
Clutch Player of the Year: Anthony Edwards
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I had Edwards as my pick last season. He finished in third place, marking the third straight year that he’s earned votes. Like Edwards, I can be a bit hard-headed. I’m picking him again this season.
Everyone knows that Edwards is a brilliant one-on-one scorer. He’s going to get the ball most of the time down the stretch of games. He should be even better in those situations after the addition of LaMelo Ball, who will make the Wolves much more difficult to guard down the stretch. The default strategy has been to load up on Edwards, forcing anyone but him to score at the end of games. That isn’t going to be nearly as tenable this season.
Ant is also a strong contender for this award because of his defense. He can have difficulty maintaining focus for entire games. But when it comes to the final possessions, he’s an excellent isolation defender who has gotten some big stops throughout his career.
RANKING BY POSITION: PG | SG | SF | PF | C
Coach of the Year: Darko Rajakovic, Raptors
The Raptors were a good team last season, winning 46 games. They will be better this year. Scottie Barnes looked like he was taking a leap during the playoffs. Collin Murray-Boyles is ready for starting minutes. And most importantly, they’ve made a massive upgrade by swapping Kawhi Leonard for Brandon Ingram.
Leonard will fix several of the Raptors’ biggest weaknesses from last season. He’s a terrific transition scorer, pick-and-roll ballhandler, and pull-up 3-point shooter, which are all areas where Toronto needed to improve. He’s also an elite help defender that fits incredibly well with the aggressive scheme that Rajakovic employed last season.
The Raptors should overachieve based on their personnel. It’s safe to say that Rajakovic will get the most out of that group. He’s taken the Raptors from cellar-dweller to contender. He doesn’t get enough credit for the defensive scheme that he’s implemented, where opposing ballhandlers face constant pressure. His enthusiasm has lifted Toronto through some tough years, and he has had multiple player development success stories over his tenure.
Toronto is my pick for the easiest over on their Vegas wins projection, and Rajakovic will get a lot of the credit if that happens. He should get his first Coach of the Year award.
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