No. 3 Notre Dame puts a perfect record on the line Saturday night when they travel to Provo to take on No. 8 BYU in one of the biggest games of the college football season so far.

The Fighting Irish (6-0) are rolling after a 58-7 beatdown of Stanford, and DraftKings has them as 10-point road favorites. BYU (5-0) handled Iowa State 24-10 last Friday and will be an underdog for the first time this season. That said, the Cougars have covered the spread in every game they’ve played.

ESPN’s College GameDay is heading to LaVell Edwards Stadium for just the second time, and a lot is riding on this one for both sides. A win would give BYU the kind of marquee victory their playoff resume lacked a year ago. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has dropped seven straight road games against top-10 opponents, and their last win in that spot came at Oklahoma back in 2012.

We break down our best bets for BYU vs. Notre Dame, along with the latest odds, predictions, and sportsbook promos for Saturday’s showdown. Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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BYU vs. Notre Dame predictions

BYU have earned every bit of their 5-0 start, and Provo is a tough place to play at night. But this is a different level of opponent than anything the Cougars have seen, and I think Notre Dame’s efficiency wears them down as the game goes on.

The Irish aren’t a big-play offense. They’re one of the least explosive teams in the country, but that hasn’t mattered because they move the ball on almost every snap. Notre Dame leads the nation with a 53.9% success rate, and CJ Carr has been sharp, completing nearly 70% of his passes. That’s a tough matchup for a BYU defense that’s been one of the most generous in the country at letting quarterbacks complete throws.

What really separates Notre Dame is what happens once they get close. The Irish rank first in the country at turning trips inside the 40 into points, averaging 5.37 points per opportunity. Against a BYU defense that sits near the middle of the pack in that area, those drives that end in field goals for most teams should end in touchdowns for Notre Dame.

On the other side, BYU wants to run the ball, and they’ve been very good at it. The problem is they’re running into a wall. Notre Dame has been one of the toughest defenses in the country to run on, and the Irish lead the nation in havoc rate, so they’re constantly living in the backfield. If BYU can’t stay ahead of the chains on the ground, it puts a lot on Bear Bachmeier’s shoulders against a secondary that hasn’t given up much.

BYU deserves credit for protecting their quarterback. They’ve allowed almost no havoc plays all season, so Notre Dame’s pass rush won’t have it easy. Both teams also play slow, which shortens the game and usually helps the underdog hang around.

Still, I keep coming back to the efficiency gap on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame should control the clock, cash in when they get close, and pull away in the second half for a double-digit win.

Prediction: Notre Dame 30, BYU 17

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BYU vs. Notre Dame odds

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BYU vs. Notre Dame best bets

I don’t love laying double digits on the road against a top-10 team, especially at night in Provo. That said, Notre Dame have been dominant enough this season, and BYU are banged up enough, that I’m comfortable doing it here.

Every one of the Irish’s six wins has come by at least 11 points, and their closest game was the 37-26 win at North Carolina. This team doesn’t play down to opponents. They’ve ranked among the top three in the country in EPA per play on both offense and defense, and that kind of balance is hard to find anywhere in college football.

The biggest factor for me is that BYU will be without LJ Martin. The reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year went down with a lower-body injury on his second carry at TCU, and he’s expected to miss four to six weeks. Martin was off to a monster start, averaging 7.8 yards per carry, and he’s the engine of this offense. BYU’s other top running back, Sione Moa, has also been out since Week 1, so the Cougars are leaning on backups and Bear Bachmeier’s legs against one of the best run defenses in the country.

That shows up in the last two games, too. BYU scored just 17 at TCU and 24 against Iowa State without Martin, and the Irish defense is a big step up from both. Notre Dame are holding opponents to a 31.1% success rate, second-best in the country, so drives should stall quickly if the Cougars can’t get anything going on the ground.

The battle up front favors Notre Dame, too. The Irish offensive line has done a great job keeping runners from getting hit behind the line, which lets them stay on schedule. BYU will also be without linebacker Isaiah Glasker, one of their best defenders, which makes that job even tougher.

The half-point matters, and a late backdoor cover is always possible with a number this big. Still, I trust Notre Dame to keep their foot on the gas, and I expect them to win this one comfortably.

Jonaz Walton has gone from a change-of-pace freshman to the most dangerous back in Notre Dame’s backfield in a matter of weeks, and I’m happy to ride the hot hand here.

His workload has climbed fast. Walton barely touched the ball early in the season, but he got 23 carries at North Carolina and turned them into 120 yards. He followed that up with a freshman-record 181 yards on just 13 carries against Stanford, including a 97-yard touchdown run. He now leads the Irish in rushing with 409 yards on 7.9 yards per carry, and PFF has him as the nation’s highest-graded running back.

Notre Dame still uses a committee. Walton has been coming off the bench, and Aneyas Williams and Nolan James Jr. will get their share. That 97-yard run also does a lot of heavy lifting in his season numbers.

That said, he’s cleared this number in each of his last two games, and Marcus Freeman has every reason to keep feeding him. The Irish lean on the run more than most teams, throwing the ball on just 44.4% of their plays, and I expect that to continue with a lead in a hostile environment. BYU’s run defense has been solid, but not elite, and Walton only needs one or two of his trademark explosive runs to get most of the way there.

He has the talent, the momentum, and the opportunity. I like him to clear 60.5.

With LJ Martin sidelined, the BYU offense runs through Bear Bachmeier now, and I think the game script pushes him to throw plenty on Saturday.

Bachmeier just had the best game of his career against Iowa State, throwing for a season-high 329 yards and adding 109 more on the ground. He became just the third BYU quarterback to throw for 300 and run for 100 in the same game, joining Steve Young and Taysom Hill. That’s pretty good company.

He’s also shown he can hit the big play. Bachmeier has connected with freshman wideout Legend Glasker on deep shots three times this season, including a 75-yard touchdown last week, and he found Roger Saleapaga II for a 63-yard gain in the same game. A couple of those connections would go a long way toward clearing this number.

Notre Dame’s defense is obviously a major step up, and there will be stretches where Bachmeier struggles to find anything open. BYU also plays slow and doesn’t throw as much as most teams, and he’ll likely tuck it and run a fair amount, which will eat into his passing total.

That said, the Cougars probably can’t run their way through this Irish front without their top two backs, and if they fall behind as double-digit underdogs, they’ll have to throw to keep up. Notre Dame’s pass defense also isn’t quite as airtight as their run defense, with opponents completing about 61% of their throws. I’ll take Bachmeier to get past 181.5.

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SGP for BYU vs. Notre Dame

Here is our favorite same game parlay for this top-10 showdown: 

• Notre Dame -10.5: BYU are down their two best running backs, and that puts a lot on Bear Bachmeier’s shoulders against a defense that lives in the backfield. I expect the Irish to wear the Cougars down in the second half and pull away late.
• Over 46.5 -110: Notre Dame are averaging 44 points per game so that they could get most of the way to this total on their own. Both teams play slow, but if the Irish handle their business and BYU chase points late, these two legs line up nicely together.
• Odds: (+210 at BetMGM)