No. 4 Ohio State heads to Bloomington on Saturday for a rematch with No. 5 Indiana, the team that knocked them off in last year’s Big Ten Championship and went on to win the national title.

The Buckeyes (5-1, 3-0 Big Ten) have won four straight since their 24-23 loss at Texas, and they’re about a field-goal favorite on the road. Indiana (6-0, 3-0) is still perfect, but the Hoosiers needed a fourth-quarter comeback to escape Nebraska 20-17 last week after trailing 17-6.

Ohio State has dominated this series for decades, but the last meeting stings. Indiana won a 13-10 slugfest in Indianapolis, and Saturday’s game at Memorial Stadium could go a long way toward deciding who gets back to the Big Ten title game this season.

We break down our best bets for Indiana vs. Ohio State, along with the latest odds, predictions, and sportsbook promos for Saturday’s showdown. Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction

Ohio State has had this game circled since December. The Buckeyes watched Indiana celebrate a Big Ten title at their expense in Indianapolis, then watched the Hoosiers go on to win it all. Revenge isn’t a betting angle on its own, but this veteran group knows exactly what’s at stake in Bloomington.

They’ll have to do it without Austin Siereveld, though. Ohio State’s offensive line leader has been ruled out with an illness, and the Buckeyes will also be without running back Ja’Kobi Jackson. The good news is Phillip Daniels returns at right tackle after missing the last four games, which lets Gabe VanSickle slide back inside to guard. That said, this line is getting reshuffled right before its toughest test of the season.

Indiana’s biggest issue lately has been staying on schedule. The Hoosiers managed just 16 plays in the first half against Nebraska and finished with a season-low 65 rushing yards. They’ve converted only about 41% of their third downs this season, and they play at one of the slowest paces in the country, so a few stalled drives can really change a game’s feel.

What’s kept Indiana afloat is the big play. Josh Hoover completed just 12 of 22 passes in Lincoln, but two of them went to Nick Marsh for long touchdowns, and that was enough. The Hoosiers rank sixth in the country in explosiveness, so Ohio State can’t afford to let anyone get behind them.

The other big question is whether either team can get to the quarterback. Indiana has done a great job protecting Hoover, giving up havoc on just 9.6% of plays, while Ohio State’s offensive line has been solid but not spectacular there. With Siereveld out, the Hoosiers’ front has a real chance to make Julian Sayin uncomfortable. On the flip side, Sayin has been incredibly accurate, completing nearly 72% of his passes, and he gets the ball out quickly enough to limit the damage.

Indiana’s defense is legit, but they’ve been one of the worst teams in the country at limiting explosive plays when they do break down. That’s a dangerous trend against Jeremiah Smith and this Ohio State receiving corps. I think the Buckeyes make a couple more big plays than the Hoosiers, grind out tough yards late, and get their revenge with a one-score win.

Prediction: Ohio State 27, Indiana 20

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Indiana vs. Ohio State  odds

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Indiana vs. Ohio State best bets

I don’t need to lay the points here. I just need Ohio State to win, and I think they’re the better team in this matchup.

Indiana deserves a ton of respect. The Hoosiers have won 22 straight games, and beating them in Bloomington won’t be easy, especially with the Buckeyes shuffling their offensive line again. That said, Indiana hasn’t looked like the same dominant group lately, and their two biggest wins this season came against Rutgers and a Nebraska team that outplayed them for most of the afternoon.

The key matchup for me is Hoover against this Ohio State secondary. Indiana’s passing attack has been one of the most efficient in the country, but the Buckeyes have been just as good at shutting teams down through the air. Opponents are completing only about 53% of their passes against Ohio State, which is one of the best marks in college football. If the Hoosiers can’t hit on a couple of big throws, I’m not sure where the points come from.

On the other side, Ohio State has been one of the best teams in the country at moving the chains, with a 52.9% success rate on offense. They’ve also been excellent at finishing drives, averaging more than five points per trip inside the 40. Indiana’s defense has been good at limiting what opponents do through the air, but nothing close to the level of the units Ohio State has already faced.

Bo Jackson should see plenty of work with Jackson out, and Jeremiah Smith is the best player on the field. I’ll trust the more complete team to get the job done on the road.

Jeremiah Smith is the best player on the field Saturday, and Indiana’s defense has a habit of giving up the kind of big plays he lives on.

Smith is averaging over 150 receiving yards per game this season, and he’s topped this number in four of his six games. His two misses came in blowouts against Kent State and Maryland, where Ohio State had the game in hand early. When the Buckeyes have needed him, he’s delivered, including 164 yards in the loss at Texas and 206 more at Iowa.

Indiana’s defense is legit, but when it breaks, it breaks big. The Hoosiers rank near the very bottom of the country at preventing explosive plays, and opponents are completing 63% of their passes against them. Ohio State also likes to push the ball downfield more than most teams, so Smith should get plenty of chances to hit a chunk play or two.

Brandon Inniss and Devin McCuin are back this week, which could spread the targets around a bit more than usual. Indiana will also have a plan to take him away, and Smith caught only four passes last week.

That said, he’s averaging 19.1 yards per catch, so he doesn’t need much volume to get there. In a close game where Ohio State needs to make plays through the air, I expect Julian Sayin to lean on his best weapon.

These are two of the best defenses in the country, and I think this one plays out more like a heavyweight fight.

Indiana is allowing just 11.8 points per game, and Ohio State hasn’t been far behind at a little over 13. Both teams also lean on the run more than most of the country, which keeps the clock moving and limits the number of possessions. The last time these two met, they didn’t even combine for 25 points.

Ohio State’s offensive line injuries may factor in here. Indiana’s front has done a great job controlling the line of scrimmage, and Ohio State will be working with a reshuffled group on the road in a loud environment. Drives that might end in touchdowns against Big Ten middleweights could stall into field goals in Bloomington.

This one has some risk. Indiana thrives on big plays, and if Smith breaks loose a couple of times, the total can climb quickly. It only takes a couple of long scores to blow this up.

Still, I expect both defenses to control most of the afternoon, and a game in the high 40s feels right.

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SGP for Indiana vs. Ohio State

Here is our favorite same game parlay for this monster Big Ten matchup:

• Ohio State moneyline: The Buckeyes have the better quarterback, the best player on the field, and a defense that can hang with anyone in the country. I trust them to make a few more plays than Indiana and get their revenge on the road.
• Jeremiah Smith touchdown: Smith already has 11 touchdown catches this season and has found the end zone in five of his six games. When Ohio State gets in the red zone in a tight game, the ball is going to No. 4.
• Bo Jackson 14+ rush attempts: With Ja’Kobi Jackson out and Isaiah West questionable, Bo Jackson should carry most of the load in the backfield. If Ohio State is protecting a lead in the second half, he’ll get plenty of chances to grind down the clock.
• Odds: (+188 at DraftKings)