No. 3 Notre Dame hits the road for a noon kickoff on ESPN at Kenan Stadium. The Fighting Irish are 4-0 after a 39-point win over Purdue, and CJ Carr and the offense have been on a roll.

Meanwhile, Bill Belichick’s North Carolina team is 2-1 and coming off a bye week. Notre Dame is laying roughly three touchdowns, so the question is whether they can cover, not whether they can win.

Granted, three touchdowns is a lot for a road team, and the Tar Heels look far better than they did a year ago. They stayed competitive against Clemson, and the extra week to prepare can only help. That said, Notre Dame has the kind of defense that makes it hard for anyone to hang around. North Carolina will have to move the ball and finish drives, and that’s much easier said than done against this group.

Below, our experts break down the odds, best bets, predictions, and the latest sportsbook promos for Saturday’s matchup. Plus, new users can bet $5 on this game and get $150 in Bonus Bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina prediction

Notre Dame is the better team, and it isn’t close. They’re 5th in PFF’s overall team grades, and North Carolina is 85th. The question is whether 21.5 points is too many for a road favorite, and I don’t think it is.

The reason is that the Tar Heels struggle to score. They average just +0.11 EPA per play, which ranks 94th in the country, and they put up 23.3 points a game. Now they face a Notre Dame defense that’s allowing 8.3 points per game and grades out second in the country by PFF. Bill Belichick can scheme all he wants, but he still needs his offense to move the ball, and I don’t see how it does that consistently.

Notre Dame’s offense should have an easier time against a defense with a clear weakness. Quarterback CJ Carr has thrown for 963 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception, and Jordan Faison gives him a reliable outside target. North Carolina’s run defense allows opponents to succeed on 43.8% of their rushes, which ranks 162nd in the country. The Irish aren’t elite on the ground, but they don’t have to be. They need to be efficient enough to take over the game in the second half.

Granted, North Carolina’s defense is legit, and the pass rush is where it can get in the way. Xavier Lewis has been the Tar Heels’ best pass rusher this season, and Carr likes to play in structure with a clean pocket. Notre Dame also plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, at 46.5 plays per game, and they’re on a back-to-back road trip against a team coming off a bye. That’s a lot of reasons for this to stay closer than it should, at least early.

That said, I trust Notre Dame’s defense to hold up its end of the bargain. If Lewis does get home on Carr, the Irish should force the Tar Heels into three-and-outs on the other side. I expect Notre Dame to pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Notre Dame 35, North Carolina 10

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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina odds

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

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Notre Dame vs. North Carolina best bets

This number asks a lot of a back who has had a real workload in only one game this season. James ran for 121 yards on 26 carries against Michigan State, but in the other three games he had 19, 29, and 28 yards on seven carries or fewer. Through four games, he’s averaging about 49 yards, so 73.5 is a big jump. His PFF run grade is solid at 79.6, so run quality isn’t the issue. It’s the workload, since Notre Dame hasn’t leaned on him much outside that one game.

Granted, there’s a path to the over. North Carolina’s run defense is the weak spot on that side of the ball, and if Notre Dame builds a big lead as I expect, James could pick up a handful of late carries and pile up yards. But I think the Irish will lean on CJ Carr and the passing game early, then spread the carries around once the game is out of reach. I’d rather take the under on a number that takes his biggest gam of the year to clear.

This is a bet on the game script. Notre Dame is a three-touchdown favorite, and I don’t think they’ll need to throw much to win. If their defense does what it’s been doing, the Irish can take the lead and lean on the run, which means fewer targets for everyone. Flanagan is mostly a blocker who has seen just five targets through four games, and he’s averaging about 11 yards a game. He wasn’t targeted at all against Michigan State.

Granted, this number is low enough that one catch can beat it. His 29-yard game at Purdue came on a 27-yard grab, and he’s already found the end zone twice. But I’d rather take the under on a tight end who barely sees the ball than worry about one big play. If Carr throws it, I expect most of the targets to go to Jordan Faison and the wide receivers, and I expect the Irish to run the clock late.

Laying 21.5 on the road is never fun, but I’m comfortable with it. Notre Dame is putting up about 42 points a game and hasn’t scored fewer than 27 in any game this season. North Carolina’s defense has been solid, allowing under 14 points a game, but this is the highest-ranked opponent the Tar Heels have faced in the Belichick era. I don’t think they’ve seen an offense like this one, with CJ Carr getting the ball out quickly and Jordan Faison working the middle of the field.

The bigger issue for North Carolina is on the other side. They have one of the worst passing offenses in the country by success rate, and they’ll face a defense that doesn’t give up much on the ground either. That makes it hard for them to put points on the board or stay on the field. Granted, 21.5 is a big number, and the extra week to prepare gives Belichick a chance to come up with something. But if the Tar Heels can’t score, Notre Dame doesn’t have to be perfect to cover.

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Best college football sportsbook promos

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SPG for Notre Dame vs. North Carolina

• Notre Dame -21: Notre Dame is the better team on both sides of the ball, and they’ve been more than capable of winning by this much. I’ll take the half-point cushion over 21.5.
• North Carolina team total under 13.5: North Carolina has one of the least explosive offenses in the country, so they’ll have to string together long drives against a defense that rarely lets anyone do that. I don’t see them getting to 14.
• Notre Dame team total over 33.5: Notre Dame has scored 40-plus in three of their four games, so 34 doesn’t feel like a stretch if they get a lead. All three legs work off the same blowout script.
• Odds (+240 at DraftKings)

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