Two of the biggest games on Saturday’s slate look very different. The first is in Starkville, where No. 7 Alabama visits No. 16 Mississippi State at noon ET.

Both teams are 4-0, and the Bulldogs are coming off a win over Missouri. Kamario Taylor and that offense have been one of the SEC’s early stories, and Alabama is only about a six-point favorite.

The other is in Death Valley, where Miami is a big road favorite at Clemson. The Hurricanes have Darian Mensah leading an offense that can score quickly, and the Tigers have struggled to find explosive plays. Granted, Clemson is 2-0 in ACC play, and nobody enjoys laying this many points on the road, but that’s what makes this one so interesting from a betting angle.

Below, Brad Thomas breaks down his best bets for these two games and the rest of the Saturday slate, including odds, predictions and the latest sportsbook promos. Plus, new users can bet $5 on any college football matchup and get $150 in Bonus Bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.

MORE: College football futures tracker for 2026

Best college football sportsbook promos

If you’re looking to get in on the betting action for the college football season but are new to some of the best sportsbooks in your area, take advantage of their new user promos and welcome bonuses.

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College Football Week 5 best bets

Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Alabama vs. Mississippi State best bet

Alabama’s offense is averaging 48 points a game, and Russell is a big reason why. He’s a real dual-threat who has three rushing touchdowns in four games, including a 57-yard run against Florida State. Mississippi State’s defense gave up 400-plus yards to both South Carolina and Missouri, so I expect Alabama to move the ball and get plenty of chances near the goal line. The total is in the 60s, and in a game that’s likely to turn into a shootout, I like a quarterback who can score with his legs.

Granted, touchdown passes don’t count here, and many anytime touchdown bets on quarterbacks come down to who gets the carry at the goal line. Alabama has other backs who can take those snaps. But Russell has already shown he can break a scramble open or call his own number, and I think -120 is a fair price for a player with that kind of upside in this matchup.

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Miami vs. Clemson odds

Miami vs. Clemson best bet

Clemson’s best chance to stay in this game is to run the ball and shorten it, and Davidson is the guy they’ll lean on. His carries have gone up in every game this season, from 7 to 14 to 16 to a career-high 22, and he’s the first Clemson player with back-to-back 100-yard games since Phil Mafah in 2024. With the Tigers’ passing game struggling, I expect that workload to hold. This number is also lower than what he has done in three of his four games.

Granted, Miami’s defense is a big step up from what he has faced lately, and a blowout is the main risk. The LSU game showed what happens when Clemson falls behind early. Davidson had just seven carries for 20 yards that day. But Clemson has a lot of reasons to stay committed to the run, and even if Miami pulls away, I think he’s seen enough volume to get most of the way there. I’ll take the over on a number below his last three outings.

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Auburn vs. Tennessee odds

Auburn vs. Tennessee best bet

This is a high number for two teams that want to run the ball. Tennessee ranks in the top 30 in run-play percentage, and Auburn allows just 3.1 yards per carry, so I expect a lot of grinding and not much quick scoring. The Volunteers are also coming off a rough day against Texas, when they gave up 10 sacks, and Faizon Brandon looked rattled. Auburn’s quarterback, Byrum Brown, has thrown five interceptions in four games, and neither offense has looked like a team that can string together drives against a decent defense.

Granted, Auburn’s lone loss was a 44-39 shootout with Florida, so these teams can score if things break right. But 55 is a lot to ask from two offenses with this many problems, and Tennessee’s game total has gone under in 8 of its last 12. I think this one ends up in the 20s for both teams, and the under cashes.

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UCF vs. Houston odds

UCF vs. Houston best bet

Houston will score some points, but I don’t think UCF is built to keep up. The Knights want to run the ball, and Houston is strongest up front, which is a problem for an offense that hasn’t shown much through the air since quarterback Alonza Barnett III went down. UCF scored only seven points in its first real road test at Pittsburgh, and a run-heavy approach means longer drives that burn clock. That limits how many possessions both teams get, which is exactly what you want from an under.

Granted, Houston has gone over in all four of its games and has scored at least 26 every time, and the Cougars’ secondary can be had if UCF ever gets going through the air. But UCF’s defense has six interceptions with just three passing touchdowns allowed, and it slowed down a dangerous Pitt offense. Some of the big scoring totals early this season also came against weaker opponents so that I wouldn’t read too much into them. I expect Houston to get its points, UCF to struggle to keep pace, and this to finish under the number.

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Players to watch this weekend

Keelon Russell, QB, Alabama

Russell was a five-star recruit and the Elite 11 MVP who saw limited action as a true freshman, then won the starting job late in fall camp. The transition has been smooth so far. He’s completing 70.9% of his passes for 1,129 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions, and he’s averaging more than 10 yards per attempt.

He’s been at his best in the last two weeks. He threw for 320 yards and three touchdowns in a win over Florida State, including a 46-yard touchdown to Ryan Coleman-Williams, then went 21-of-27 for 365 yards and four touchdowns against South Carolina. South Carolina coach Shane Beamer compared his arm talent to last year’s starter, Ty Simpson, but with better ability to take off and run.

Granted, this will be his toughest road test yet, and Starkville will be loud. Mississippi State’s offense will score, so Russell can’t afford a slow start. If this turns into a shootout, his arm will decide it.

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Kamario Taylor, QB, Mississippi State

Taylor is the best story in the SEC right now. The sophomore (6-foot-4, 230 pounds) is tied for the FBS lead with 14 touchdown passes, and he has thrown for 1,192 yards with just two interceptions. He’s completing 69.2% of his throws and averaging 9.9 yards per attempt, and the Bulldogs are 4-0 largely because of him.

He’s also shown he can bounce back. He had a dreadful first quarter at South Carolina, then threw four touchdowns to lead a comeback win. He followed that up with 360 yards and three touchdowns against Missouri. He’s also a threat with his legs, running for 59 yards and a score in the opener against Louisiana-Monroe.

The one area to watch is pressure. Taylor has been sacked eight times through four games, and Alabama’s pass rush will be the biggest test he has faced. If he keeps his composure the way he did against South Carolina, Mississippi State has a real shot to hang with the Crimson Tide.

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DeSean Bishop, RB, Tennessee

Bishop’s story is great. He’s a Knoxville native who played at Karns High School, walked on at Tennessee, and earned second-team All-SEC honors last season. He ran for 1,076 yards and 16 touchdowns on 5.9 yards per carry, and he’s off to a similar start this year with 320 yards and four scores through four games.

His best game was a 147-yard, two-touchdown performance against Georgia Tech in Week 2. He picked up a hip injury against Kennesaw State and was held out for most of the second half, then had a tough day against Texas, with 34 yards on 11 carries in a 20-17 loss. Coming into that game, he had scored a rushing touchdown in 12 of his previous 13 games.

That makes Saturday a chance to bounce back at home. Tennessee has other options in Duane Morris and Javin Gordon, who have both had long touchdown runs this season, but the Volunteers will want Bishop to get going early. If he’s healthy, I expect a big workload.

College football top 25 Week 5 schedule