Are the Houston Astros legitimate World Series contenders? One set of statistics says so.
Neil Paine of the Athletic went through every World Series champion since 1998 to find what they all have in common. What he found was three statistical metrics that at least 24 of the last 26 champs all had in common.
The Astros are one of the five teams that fit the criteria, along with the Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, and Chicago Cubs. Those metrics are:
1. Rank among the top 13 in 2 of these 3 categories
- Win percentage (Astros are 8th)
- Run differential (Astros are 9th)
- Wins above replacement (Astros are 6th)
2. Rank among the top 17 in OBP (Astros are 15th) or top 11 in slugging
3. Rank among the top 11 in opponent batting average (Astros are 1st) or top 16 in WHIP (Astros are 2nd)
4. Rank among the top 13 in quality starts (Astros are 3rd) or fewest meltdowns
5. Check at least four of these five
- Top 11 in lowest BABIP allowed (Astros are 8th)
- Top 20 in batting clutch (Astros are 15th)
- Top 20 in fewest HR/9 allowed (Astros are 10th)
- Top 25 in lowest batting strikeout rate (Astros are 10th)
- Top 25 in speed score
Each of these thresholds must be cleared by the halfway point in the season, which is quickly approaching.
Right now, the Astros clearly have an advantage particularly with their pitching. Should the hitting continue to be serviceable – with the team perhaps even adding a bat or two at the trade deadline – the stats say they should have a chance at winning the whole thing.
