How much variation will there be in the second (and final?) installment of the 12-team College Football Playoff?
That’s one of the questions we have heading into the 2025-26 college football season. The CFP moved to a straight seeding model – which means an automatic qualifier among the five highest-ranked conference champions is no longer guaranteed a bye week. That likely will have an impact on the ACC, Big 12 and Group of 5 champions.
Will that mean the Big Ten and SEC get their wish? Those two conferences combined for seven playoff teams last year – and Ohio State won the first national championship of the 12-team era. Do the Buckeyes have enough coming back to make a run at back-to-back national championships under Ryan Day?
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About the variation of teams: Sporting News has eight teams in our College Football Playoff projections that made the field last year. That means two-thirds of the teams will be coming back if our projections go according to plan. Will that help inspire a push to 16 teams? SN predicted half the field correctly last year.
The first round of the new CFP will have one game on Friday, Dec. 19, and three on Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinals will be played at the Cotton Bowl Classic (Dec. 31), Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).
The semifinals will be played at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 8) and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 9). The CFP national championship is Jan. 19 in Miami.
With that in mind, here are our predictions for the second 12-team College Football Playoff:
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College Football Playoff first-round predictions
A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 19 | First-Round CFP game | No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Notre Dame |
| Dec. 20 | First-Round CFP game | No. 12 Navy at No. 5 Penn State |
| Dec. 20 | First-Round CFP game | No. 10 Miami, Fla. at No. 7 Alabama |
| Dec. 20 | First-Round CFP game | No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Arizona State |
First round (Dec. 20): No. 11 LSU at No. 6 Notre Dame
There is no way the CFP committee would not put this matchup first if it materializes. Brian Kelly had an 0-4 record in BCS and CFP bowls during his time with Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman led the Irish to the CFP championship game last season. Could BK flip the script in South Bend with LSU? These schools last met in the 2018 Citrus Bowl.
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First round (Dec. 21): No. 12 Navy at No. 5 Penn State
Navy is our Group of 5 champion that reaches the CFP out of the American Athletic Conference. The Midshipmen will have to get through a tough November that features Notre Dame, Memphis and Army on Dec. 13. Penn State is in an all-in year with James Franklin after reaching the CFP semifinals last year. The Nittany Lions would be heavy favorites here.
First round (Dec. 21): No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Arizona State
The Ducks and Sun Devils were conference champions last season. The Sun Devils will not get a bye if they repeat as Big 12 champions in this scenario, and the Ducks will be a Big Ten at-large. The coaching matchup between Dan Lanning and former Ducks offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham would be fun, too. Arizona State beat Oregon at Sun Devil Stadium in 2017 and 2019.
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First round (Dec. 21): No. 10 Miami, Fla. at No. 7 Alabama
Kalen DeBoer gets the Crimson Tide back in the College Football Playoff in his second season, and the Hurricanes are the at-large bid for the ACC. That means Carson Beck delivers as the new starting quarterback, and Mario Cristobal avoids a season-altering upset.
College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions
A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Dec. 31 | Cotton Bowl Classic (quarterfinal) | No. 1 Texas vs. No. 9 Oregon |
| Jan. 1 | Capital One Orange Bowl (quarterfinal) | No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 5 Penn State |
| Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (quarterfinal) | No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Alabama |
| Jan. 1 | Allstate Sugar Bowl (quarterfinal) | No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Notre Dame |
Cotton Bowl Classic (Dec. 31): No. 1 Texas vs. No. 9 Oregon
The Longhorns are our preseason No. 1, and we’re leaning into the hype around Arch Manning. Texas does have a tough schedule starting with the opener at Ohio State. Oregon knows the feeling about a tough quarterfinal matchup after a banner regular season.
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Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1): No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 5 Penn State
This would be the best matchup of the second round. Clemson would get a bye if it can win the ACC championship – at least we think they would. Penn State might be favored in this matchup. Both schools have memorable victories at the Orange Bowl, too, though the Lions saw their season end in Miami last year in heartbreaking fashion.
Rose Bowl Game (Jan. 1): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Alabama
Sensing a theme here? The Buckeyes are in the Rose Bowl for the second straight season as the Big Ten champion, and Alabama would be a formidable matchup. Julian Sayin – who decommitted from Alabama after Nick Saban retired – would be the center of attention in this matchup assuming he wins the starting job for the Buckeyes.
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Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 6 Notre Dame
Rematches are going to be part of the 12-team College Football Playoff era. The Irish beat the Bulldogs 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl last season – a game where neither team compiled more than 300 total yards. Who is ready for another slugfest?
College Football Playoff semifinal predictions
A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2024-25 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year’s Day Six bowl sites:
| DATE | BOWL | MATCHUP |
| Jan. 8 | Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (semifinal) | No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia |
| Jan. 9 | Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (semifinal) | No. 1 Texas vs. No. 5 Penn State |
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 8): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia
Remember when the top four seeds lost in the quarterfinal last year? Proper seeding will change that, but the semifinal matchups could be the same participants in the Big Ten and SEC championship games. What have these programs learned from the first year? Ohio State gets to pull Georgia out west here. The Buckeyes have nine Fiesta Bowl appearances. The Bulldogs have none – but they have won the Rose Bowl and CFP championship game on the West Coast. This would be an instant classic.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 9): No. 1 Texas vs. No. 5 Penn State
It’s an all Big Ten-SEC semifinal round this time, and the Nittany Lions would pose a challenge for Manning with new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Both of these teams lost semifinal matchups last season, so the pressure would be on James Franklin and Steve Sarkisian to get to that national championship game. This would be Sark’s third straight crack at a CFP championship game. Texas delivers this time.
College Football Playoff championship pick
A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2024-25 season. That game is scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
CFP national championship (Jan. 20): No. 1 Texas vs. No. 2 Ohio State
How likely is this? It’s an admittedly chalky pick with complications given the teams play in the season opener and the loser could have a tougher path – but these are the two best teams. It would be tough for the Buckeyes to go through three SEC teams in one CFP run. Ohio State beat Texas 28-14 in the semifinal last year, but the game was close until the final moments. The Buckeyes and Longhorns combined to send 26 players to the 2025 NFL Draft. Is a Penn State-Georgia championship game the better pick here? Perhaps – but we’re sticking with Texas and Ohio State in Miami.
