There are 15 MLB games on Sunday, being the last slate of games before the All-Star break. It’s the final chance to hit some home run picks and gather winnings for the derby.
Below, we analyze our favorite MLB home run bets for today, July 13th. We consider pitchers, weather and odds when making predictions. You can sign up on bet365 and FanDuel to use MLB betting bonuses, such as profit boosts.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Sunday
Goldschmidt Goes Yard at Yankee Stadium
On paper, it looks as though Goldschmidt has a tough matchup against the Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga. While Imanaga is a stud, he can still give up the long ball. Over the last five weeks he has given up a home run every 16 at-bats to RHH, with the 4-seam fastball being his home run pitch. All three home runs he has allowed to RHH in this stretch have been off his 4-seamer, which accounts for about half of his pitch-mix to righties.
Not only does Goldschmidt hit lefties very well in general, but he specifically crushes 4-seam FBs off left-handed pitching. Over the last month, he has a fantastic 19%-barrel rate, 54% HardHit rate and 37% fly-ball rate against LHP. When you dig deeper and look at those numbers against the 4-seam fastball from a lefty, they get even better.
His barrel rate jumps up to 28%, HardHit rate up to 61% and fly-ball rate to 38%. All that combined with a low strikeout rate of only 7%. Those are phenomenal numbers across the board for Goldschmidt, who hopefully goes yard today.
Bichette Hits Homer Against As
As always, one of our favorite venues to target for home runs is the Athletics home stadium for this year at Sutter Health Park. Today is no different, with a +27% home run index thanks to the hot temperatures at an already hitter-friendly park.
Bichette, meanwhile, has been great recently with 12 HardHits and four barrels over this last seven days. Even more recent than that, his day at the plate yesterday was remarkable. He had three total HardHits, all three of which were 102 mph exit velocity or faster, including a double that traveled 405 feet.
He’ll be facing Jeffrey Springs as the A’s starting pitcher, who has allowed a home run every 20 at-bats to RHH both on the season and over his last five weeks. Springs is also a lefty, and Bichette has great numbers against LHP over the last month with a 14%-barrel rate and 48% HardHit rate.
Rafaela Clears a Fence at Fenway
From a value perspective, this is one of the best plays on the board today when taking into account the price at +630 odds. Rafaela has been fantastic recently, with 10 HardHits and three barrels over the last seven days and 18 HardHits and seven barrels over the last 14. While he did not have any HardHits yesterday, that can be forgiven when looking at the fact that he had at least two in an astonishing eight straight games prior to that.
Ryan Pepiot is pitching for the Rays, who struggles keeping the baseball in the yard, especially against righties. On the year, he has allowed a home run every 19 at-bats against RHH, which jumps all the way up to every 12 at-bats over the last five weeks.
Ten of the 11 home runs that Pepiot has allowed to RHH have been off either his 4-seam FB or slider (5 HRs allowed off each pitch), while Rafaela has a 15%-barrel rate and 56% HardHit rate against those two pitches from RHP over the last month. Look for him to send one to the bleachers today.
