Week 10 of the NFL season features several intriguing matchups, and the anytime touchdown markets will be humming from the first drive of the week through Monday night.
There are 14 games on the slate, and highlights include the New England Patriots and Detroit Lions facing off in Munich, Germany, the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday Night Football and the Los Angeles Chargers at the Baltimore Ravens to close the week. The Bears, Broncos, Eagles and Buccaneers are all on bye, so a few of the usual go-to scorers are off the board this week.
Prediction markets have changed how many gamers approach TD props. Instead of locking into a fixed sportsbook price, you’re buying a “yes” or “no” contract on whether a player finds the end zone. Those contracts usually trade somewhere between 1 and 99 cents and pay out $1 if they hit. Since prices shift with the market, you can buy early, sell before kickoff if the price jumps on injury news, or get out mid-game if the script flips.
Below, we break down how anytime touchdown markets work on ProphetX, Kalshi and other platforms, along with the Week 10 players worth trading. And new users can get started with promo code TSN to earn a $40 prediction bonus on ProphetX.
The Sporting News has everything you need to know to use prediction markets on NFL action during Week 9, including the best apps and promos.
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Best NFL Week 10 anytime TD value picks
If there’s one matchup on the Week 10 board I want to target in the touchdown market, it’s tight ends against the Detroit Lions. Detroit has allowed a league-high 11 touchdowns to the position this season, and Henry is New England’s go-to option at tight end heading into Sunday’s game in Munich.
Henry hasn’t found the end zone since scoring in back-to-back games against the Raiders and Jets in Weeks 5 and 6. He’s also been quiet lately, with just three catches in each of his last two games. That said, he’s still been a steady part of the passing game, with 32 catches for 361 yards on the season. He also led the Patriots with seven receiving touchdowns last season, so he’s no stranger to working near the goal line.
The game script should help too. New England just gave up 45 points to Green Bay, and if the Lions’ offense gets rolling, the Patriots will have to keep throwing to keep up. Henry has gone a few weeks without a score, but a trip to Germany against a defense that hasn’t figured out tight ends all season looks like a good spot for him to get back on track.
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Rashee Rice is once again the top target in the Kansas City passing game, and this price looks a little low for a receiver with his role.
He’s led the Chiefs in targets in both games since coming back from his knee and hamstring injuries. In his return against Denver, he caught a touchdown on the opening drive, which tells you Kansas City wasted no time getting him involved. Last week against the Jets was quieter, with five catches for 49 yards, but that came in a 35-12 blowout where the Chiefs were happy to lean on Kenneth Walker.
Walker could be a factor again Sunday, since Atlanta has struggled to stop the run. Then again, a strong ground game should open things up for Rice. The Falcons have been the worst defense in the league against play action this season, giving up a successful play on 66% of those passes. If Atlanta has to load up to slow Walker, Rice should see plenty of chances in the short and intermediate passing game, and that’s exactly where he’s been doing his damage.
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Paying 65 cents for an anytime touchdown isn’t usually where I want to be, but Chuba Hubbard has earned it with how much the Panthers lean on him.
With Jonathon Brooks still on injured reserve, Hubbard has been Carolina’s workhorse all season. He’s scored seven total touchdowns through eight games, five on the ground and two through the air, and he’s found the end zone in five of those games. His role in the passing game gives him another way to score, too. Against Green Bay two weeks ago, he caught seven passes, along with 22 carries and a rushing touchdown.
Last week’s loss to Denver was a bit of a blip. Hubbard only got 16 carries, his second-fewest since Week 2, but that was more about the game getting away from Carolina than anything he did wrong. He still averaged close to five yards a carry.
The matchup is what pushes this one over the top. New Orleans has the worst run defense in the league, and with the NFC South lead on the line in a game that’s essentially a coin flip, Carolina has every reason to keep feeding Hubbard from start to finish. If the Panthers get near the goal line on Sunday, the ball is going in his hands.
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Jakobi Meyers came about a yard away from cashing this ticket last week. On Jacksonville’s opening drive in Baltimore, he was dragged down at the 1-yard line, and Trevor Lawrence’s reliable chain-mover finished the night leading the Jaguars with four catches for 65 yards.
That near miss is part of the reason this price looks too low. Meyers hasn’t scored since Week 3 against the Patriots, so the market has drifted away from him. That said, he’s been a steady part of the offense all season, with 26 catches for 374 yards and multiple receptions in all but one game. Parker Washington is the big-play threat in this receiving room, but Meyers is the one Lawrence keeps going back to when he needs to move the sticks.
Now he gets a Tennessee defense that’s been one of the easiest in the league to throw on. The Titans are giving up 258 passing yards per game, 31st in the NFL, and the Jaguars come in as roughly 10-point road favorites with a few extra days of rest after playing last Thursday. Jacksonville should be setting up shop inside the 20 plenty on Sunday, and Meyers has been knocking on the door long enough that he’s due to get through it.
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The big question here was whether Cam Skattebo would even play. He sat out last week’s win over the Eagles with a hamstring injury, but John Harbaugh expects him back for Thursday night, and that’s enough for me to buy in at this price.
When Skattebo has been healthy, he’s been the engine of this Giants offense. He’s the only New York player with more than 100 rushing yards this season, and his last game before the injury was his best of the year, as he went over 100 yards and found the end zone in an overtime win at Houston.
Admittedly, the touchdowns haven’t piled up the way you’d expect. He’s only scored twice this season, and Washington has been solid against the run, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry. Still, the Commanders have been one of the worst teams in the league at keeping opponents out of the end zone once they get inside the 20, ranking 29th in red-zone touchdown rate. The Giants have scored plenty of points on drives that stall out short of the goal line, and Skattebo is the guy they’ll lean on to punch it in when they get there.
The bigger picture works in his favor too. New York is a short home favorite with the NFC East lead in its sights, and J.J. McCarthy is still trying to find his footing in the passing
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First touchdown markets are a long shot by nature, so I want a player who’s already proven he can carve up this exact defense. Isaiah Likely fits that bill.
When the Giants and Commanders played to a 27-27 tie back in Week 5, Likely had the best game of his career. He set a personal high with 11 catches for 94 yards and scored twice, including a pair of clutch touchdowns late. Washington simply didn’t have an answer for him, and not much has changed on that side of the ball since.
Likely has been one of the best red-zone weapons in the league since signing with New York this offseason. He’s scored six touchdowns through eight games, and he was the only Giant to reach the end zone in last week’s 19-11 win in Philadelphia, slipping free for a five-yard score when the Eagles’ defense got mixed up at the goal line. It didn’t matter whether J.J. McCarthy or Jameis Winston was throwing him the ball, either.
Sure, Cam Skattebo’s return means there’s another option to finish drives on the ground. That said, Likely has scored twice in the same game against this defense already, and he’s been the Giants’ most reliable scorer all season. At around 10-to-1, he’s worth a shot to open the scoring Thursday night.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown has already shown he can pile up touchdowns in a single afternoon this season. He opened the year with back-to-back two-touchdown games against the Saints and Bills, and he scored again against the Jets in Week 3.
He hasn’t found the end zone since, which is exactly why this number is sitting where it is. That drought hasn’t come from a lack of work, though. St. Brown has 61 catches for 657 yards, and he’s commanded eight or more targets in every game. He also looked healthy last week in Miami after dealing with a rib injury, leading Detroit with eight catches for 86 yards.
The Lions’ offense has been stuck in the mud lately, scoring 20 points or fewer in three straight games. A trip to Munich to face the Patriots could be the cure. Green Bay’s receivers torched New England’s secondary last week, with Jordan Love throwing for 372 yards and three touchdowns. Even Christian Gonzalez, one of the league’s better corners, gave up 187 yards in his coverage, the worst game of his career.
If Detroit gets its passing game back on track, St. Brown is the first name Jared Goff will be looking for in the red zone. He’s done this twice already this season, and this is the kind of matchup where he can do it again.
