Miami and Notre Dame face off in a huge matchup this weekend, but despite being the top-ranked team in the country, the Hurricanes are heavy underdogs.
The first edition of this year’s College Football Playoff rankings has Miami at the top, while the team has been No. 1 in the AP Polls and Coaches Poll for three straight weeks. However, despite that success as an undefeated team, bookmakers believe the Fighting Irish should win this game by a decent margin.
This marks the first time in the CFP era, which began in 2014, that the No. 1 team in the country is an underdog to a team ranked outside of the top 10. Still, this isn’t much of a surprise to college football fans, as a variety of factors have come together to create this unusual circumstance,
If Miami can pull off the upset in South Bend, the team cements itself as the clear-cut team to beat in the College Football Playoff. If they lose, though, Miami might not be punished too much considering the pressure appears to be on Notre Dame.
Here’s why Notre Dame is such a heavy favorite this week.
MORE: Outlining Malachi Toney’s return timetable
Why No. 1 Miami is an underdog
Miami enters Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog, according to DraftKings, a rarity for a team ranked No. 1 overall. That is especially the case after Notre Dame was placed at No. 11 in the College Football Playoff ranking, creating a 10-spot difference between the two sides.
Therefore, Notre Dame’s place as a touchdown favorite over Miami is rare in College Football, but there are a few reasons why that is the case.
Notre Dame is currently a 7.5 point favorite vs #1 Miami Per @EvanHAbrams, the last time the #1 team was a 7+ point underdog was 2014 #1 Mississippi St closed +9 at #5 Alabama (11/15/2014) Miss State lost 25-20
— Tim Murray (@1TimMurray) November 5, 2026
First, while the CFP rankings are now the official rankings, other rankings are friendlier to Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are ranked No. 4 in the AP Poll, which would have been the official ranking any time before this week, and they are also No. 6 in the Coaches Poll. That ranking better represents a team that can be a 7.5-point favorite against the top team in the country.
Second, Miami will play this game without its best player. Wide receiver Malachi Toney will miss Saturday’s contest, and more games in the regular season, after he suffered an ankle injury in practice. Toney underwent surgery and is expected to return during the College Football Playoff.
The Hurricanes haven’t played a game without Toney, who was one of the Heisman Trophy favorites based on his play during the first eight games of the season. Miami hasn’t played a game without Toney yet, so there’s a level of uncertainty that will come with their performance on Saturday night.
Finally, Notre Dame is the home team in this game, which automatically gives the Fighting Irish a few points out of the benefit. Had this game been in Miami, the Fighting Irish would probably still be underdogs, but not by nearly as many points.
This group of circumstances has Miami facing a historic hill to climb, but the Hurricanes have proven they are capable of making history on the road.
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