UFC Vegas 123 lands on Halloween night at the Meta Apex, and the main event is about as close to a coin flip as it gets.

No. 12 Renato Moicano (21-7-1) takes on No. 14 Tom Nolan (11-1) in a five-round lightweight headliner Saturday, in Las Vegas. Moicano picked up this fight after Brian Ortega pulled out of their UFC 331 rematch with an injury, and the 37-year-old jiu-jitsu ace now draws a high-volume Australian striker with just one career loss. Moicano sits around -105 at the sportsbooks, so the market barely leans one way.

The co-main event has a much clearer favorite. Unbeaten welterweight prospect Jacobe Smith steps in on 12 days’ notice against Randy Brown and opened as a -325 favorite. The main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with prelims at 5 p.m. ET.

We break down the best prediction market apps for UFC Vegas 123, including the top promos and value picks on ProphetX, Kalshi, Polymarket, and more.  New users can get started with promo code TSN to earn a $75 prediction bonus on ProphetX.

Here’s everything you need to know about using the best prediction markets for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 123.

MORE: A complete guide for using ProphetX

UFC Vegas 123 prediction market offers

ProphetX prediction market offer

ProphetX is one of the best up-and-coming prediction market platform in the country, and the new user promo code is a big reason for that status. Currently, first-time players on ProphetX can claim a generous welcome offer at sign-up to trade $50 and get $75 in bonus funds.

Once applying the TSN promo code, new users must trade $50 on any qualifying market to receive the bonus reward. The $75 bonus will be paid out in three $25 increments over 14 days. With the welcome bonus awarded right out of the gate, new players can have the ability to continue wagering on the ProphetX platform using incentive funds rather than having to make an additional deposit right away.

PROPHETX: New users can use promo code TSN to trade $50 and get $75 in incentive funds

OG.com prediction market offer

On OG.com, new users can trade $10 and get $10 on the prediction platform.

This is exclusive to new accounts that are verified as 18 years old and reside in the United States. Availability varies by state, and other terms and conditions may apply.

How to trade UFC Vegas 123 with prediction markets

Trading on this weekend’s UFC Vegas 123 card is a simple process for users to take part in. Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to trade in on the action:

1. (if applicable) Create a prediction market account: Users must choose on which prediction market to create an account with. 
2. (if applicable) Verify your account and deposit: Once users set up their account with verification details and deposit funds, they can move on to making a prediction.
3. Find the UFC section: This location varies across the market, but this can usually be found on the top or side navigation bar.
4. Locate a desirable game and market: Now that you’ve made it to the UFC tab, you’ll be presented with fights that can be predicted on. Click on a matchup and find a market (game lines, player props, etc.). Good luck!

ProphetX UFC Vegas 123 prediction markets

ProphetX has an extensive selection of available markets for Saturday night’s UFC Vegas 123 card. As a reminder for those used to sports betting, ProphetX displays market percentages instead of betting odds. The percentages reflect the collective implied probability of an event. Meanwhile, betting odds are set by the house to bake in a profit margin.

Here’s an outline of some markets users can predict on:

• Game lines (moneyline, total rounds)
• Method of victory
• To go the distance
• Significant strikes

MORE: Promo code TSN gets you $75 in investment funds when you trade $50 on ProphetX

ProphetX UFC Vegas 123 value picks

Tom Nolan has earned this spot. The 26-year-old Australian rides a five-fight win streak into his first UFC main event, and at 6-foot-3 with a 73-inch reach, he’s a tough puzzle for anyone at 155 pounds. He also brings real volume, landing 5.9 significant strikes per minute.

The problem is that Nolan takes plenty back. He absorbs 4.7 significant strikes per minute, and that’s a dangerous habit against a veteran like Renato Moicano, who lands at a 49% clip and has seen just about every look the division can throw at him. Moicano has shared the cage with the best lightweights in the world, including a short-notice title shot against Islam Makhachev, and Nolan has never been asked to go 25 minutes.

Five rounds is where I think this tilts. Moicano is a jiu-jitsu fighter first, with 11 of his 21 wins coming by submission, and he’ll have plenty of time to drag Nolan into the deep water. Nolan’s takedown defense has held up well, but holding off a grappler of Moicano’s caliber in rounds four and five is a different ask than doing it for three. Nolan’s only career loss also came by knockout, so his chin isn’t untouchable either.

The market has this priced like a pick’em, and I’ll side with the experience. Moicano wins in the later rounds.

Yana Santos doesn’t do finishes. All seven of her UFC wins came on the scorecards, including unanimous decisions over Miesha Tate and Macy Chiasson in her last two outings. She’s a grinder who pushes the pace, wrestles, and leans on her opponents, averaging over eight minutes of control time per 15 minutes in the cage.

Luana Santos is the bigger finishing threat on paper, but she’s had to grind out wins too. Three of her six UFC victories went the distance, and her 85% takedown defense should lead to plenty of long exchanges against the cage rather than anything quick.

The 10-year age gap makes this an interesting fight, especially with Yana coming off a year-long layoff. Even so, neither woman has much knockout power, and Yana has never been the type to get caught. I’m expecting a tactical, close fight that lands in the judges’ hands.

Kalshi UFC Vegas 123 markets

Of course, Kalshi offers their own batch of markets for UFC Vegas 123 as well. They’re outlined here:

• Game lines (winner)
• Go the distance
• Method of victory
• Round of victory
• Method of finish
• Round of finish

OG.com UFC Vegas 123 prediction markets

OG.com also takes predictions for this weekend’s UFC Vegas 123. Here’s what platform users can decide on the card:

• Game lines (winner)
• Method of victory
• Round of victory
• Method of finish
• Fight to go the distance
• Round of finish

MORE: New users on OG.com can trade $10 to get $10 using code TSN25

OG.com UFC Vegas 123 value plays

Jacobe Smith has spent most of 2026 calling out Kevin Holland. He never got that fight, but he gets the next best thing on Halloween in Randy Brown, who just lost to Holland in his last outing.

Smith is 13-0 and has finished every one of his four UFC opponents. He’s a wrestler at heart, a two-time junior college national champion who went 150-10 in high school, and he’s paired that base with real knockout power. He hits hard, chains takedowns together well, and he’s yet to be truly tested in the Octagon.

Brown is the toughest name on Smith’s résumé by a wide margin, and his length will be a problem early. He’s 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach, giving him a 6-inch edge over Smith. But Brown is on a two-fight skid, and the way he lost to Gabriel Bonfim (a flying knee TKO in the second round) doesn’t inspire much confidence that he can weather an early storm.

The short notice doesn’t bother me much either. Smith knocked out Bruce Whitehead earlier this month, so he’s coming in sharp and in fight shape. He was -325 at the sportsbooks, and 72% on OG.com is a cheaper way to back the unbeaten prospect. I expect Smith to close the distance, get Brown to the mat and find a finish before the final bell.

Something has to give here. Both flyweights come in on rough runs, with Ode’ Osbourne winning just one of his last five UFC fights and Cody Durden coming off a second-round submission loss to Alessandro Costa in July.

Osbourne was supposed to face Durden at UFC 329 before an injury pulled him out, and I like the spot for him a few months later. The Jamaican-born southpaw has a massive 73-inch reach, six inches longer than Durden’s, and he’s the more dangerous puncher. Five of his six finishes came by knockout, and he lands knockdowns far more often than Durden does.

Durden’s path is obvious. He’ll shoot early and often, and his wrestling is the best weapon in this fight. Osbourne’s takedown defense hasn’t been airtight, so the first round will tell us a lot. If Osbourne can keep this at range and make Durden pay on the way in, his length and power should carry the day. I’ll take Osbourne at a coin-flip price.

Polymarket UFC Vegas 123 markets

Finally, it’s time to look at what markets Polymarket is offering for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 123 card. Here’s what users can predict on:

• Game lines (winner)
• Method of victory
• Go the distance
• Round of victory
• Round of finish
• Method of finish