No. 13 Texas Tech will try to shake off its first loss of the season when No. 22 Arizona comes to Lubbock for a Halloween showdown with real Big 12 title stakes on Saturday (noon ET, ESPN).

The Red Raiders (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) were stunned 37-24 at Cincinnati last week as double-digit favorites — a loss that knocked them out of the top 10 and put their playoff hopes on thin ice. The Wildcats (6-1, 3-1) are trending the other way. Brent Brennan’s team has won five straight, capped by a 39-3 rout of Iowa State, and Noah Fifita has thrown 18 touchdowns against just four interceptions.

The betting market has taken notice. Texas Tech opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but the line has dropped to 3.5 at BetMGM, with the total sitting at 54.5. History still leans hard toward the home side, though. Arizona’s only win in Lubbock came back in 1935, and the Red Raiders carry a 12-game home winning streak into Saturday.

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Texas Tech vs. Arizona prediction

Texas Tech has spent most of this season winning without ever really looking like a top-10 team, and last week in Cincinnati, it finally caught up with them. Now they have to regroup against an Arizona team that’s been rolling for a month and comes to Lubbock with a quarterback who rarely gives games away.

Fifita is the reason I lean Arizona here. He’s been surgical this fall, and the Wildcats have been one of the toughest offenses in the country to get off the field on third down. Texas Tech’s secondary has given up plenty of completions this season, so I’d expect Fifita to live in the short and intermediate areas, keep the chains moving, and wear this defense down over four quarters.

He won’t get much help from the run game. Arizona hasn’t been able to move the ball consistently on the ground all year, and Texas Tech is about as stout against the run as anyone in the Big 12. This one’s going to be on Fifita’s shoulders.

The scariest thing for Arizona is the Red Raiders’ knack for turning mistakes into points. They’ve picked off 13 passes and returned five of them for touchdowns, and a single bad read could change the entire feel of this game. Fifita has protected the football well enough that I’m willing to trust him, but it’s the one thing that keeps me from feeling great about the Wildcats.

Will Hammond, meanwhile, has never quite settled in for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders would much rather pound the ball and avoid putting this game in his hands, and after he was involved in three turnovers at Cincinnati, it’s hard to blame them. Arizona’s defense has held up well against the pass, so if Texas Tech falls behind and has to throw, I like the Wildcats’ chances.

Winning in Lubbock is a tall order, and I expect this to come down to the final possession. I just think Arizona is playing better football right now, and Fifita gives them the edge late.

Prediction: Arizona 27, Texas Tech 24

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Texas Tech vs. Arizona odds

All odds are courtesy of bet365.

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Texas Tech vs. Arizona best bets

The market has already moved hard toward Arizona this week, with this line opening around a touchdown before settling closer to a field goal at most books. I’m happy paying a little extra juice at Fanatics to get the hook on the other side of 4.

The Wildcats are playing as well as anyone in the Big 12 right now. They’ve covered three straight games and won those by an average of 28 points, and this defense has been suffocating, holding opponents to a success rate below 40%. Iowa State managed just 221 total yards against them last week.

Texas Tech is still a dangerous team in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders haven’t looked like the group that won the Big 12 a year ago. They needed a late push to get past Houston, trailed Colorado deep into the second half, and then got handled by a Cincinnati team that Arizona beat by four touchdowns.

I have Arizona winning this game outright, so getting more than a field goal is a nice cushion in what should be a tight, one-score game.

Texas Tech has gone over in five of its seven games this season, and Arizona’s defense has a habit of giving up the occasional big play. Even with all of that, I like this total going under.

Neither offense is in a rush. Arizona runs fewer than 60 plays per game, and Texas Tech wants to win with long, methodical drives on the ground. That’s a recipe for fewer possessions and a lot of clock burning in between.

The red zone is where this one really tilts toward the under. Texas Tech’s defense has been stingy once opponents cross the 40, holding them to under three points per scoring opportunity. On the other side, the Red Raiders’ offense has struggled to create chunk plays all season, which means they’ll need to sustain drives against an Arizona defense that’s been excellent at getting off the field.

An early 9 a.m. local kickoff for the Wildcats doesn’t hurt, either. I’m expecting a slower, grind-it-out game that lands somewhere in the low 50s.

Texas Tech has made its identity clear this season. The Red Raiders throw it on fewer than half their snaps, and when the offense stalls, Joey McGuire’s first instinct is to lean even harder on the ground game rather than put more on Hammond’s plate.

This is also a bad matchup for a quarterback who’s still finding his footing after last year’s knee injury. Arizona has quietly built one of the better pass defenses in the Big 12, and opponents have struggled to string together efficient throws against this secondary. Texas Tech doesn’t generate many explosive plays through the air either, so Hammond will have to grind out his yardage a few completions at a time.

Game script helps here as well. If this stays close, Texas Tech will keep handing the ball off and running the clock. If the Red Raiders build a lead at home, there’s even less reason to throw. The only way Hammond flies past this number is if Arizona jumps out early and forces him into catch-up mode, and even then, I’m not convinced this offense is built to go shot for shot.

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SGP for Texas Tech vs. Arizona

Here is our favorite same game parlay for this top-25 matchup:

• J’Koby Williams anytime touchdown: Williams has carried the load for Texas Tech’s backfield, and he’s the guy the Red Raiders trust when they get close to the end zone. Arizona has had a hard time slowing teams down on the ground, so I expect Texas Tech to punch at least one in with Williams.
• Under 54.5 total points: Both teams would rather shorten this game than turn it into a shootout, and Texas Tech’s ground-heavy approach should keep the clock moving. I’m expecting plenty of long drives that end in field goals instead of quick strikes.
• Arizona moneyline: Fifita has been the steadier quarterback all season, and I trust him over Hammond with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. The Wildcats are the hotter team, and pairing an outright win with a Williams touchdown fits the close, physical game I’m expecting.
• Odds: (+950 at DraftKings)