Two of the Big 12’s best teams meet Saturday at Rice-Eccles Stadium, where unbeaten Utah hosts a Houston team that has quietly turned into a legit conference contender.

The Utes (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) are off to their first 6-0 start since 2015 and own the longest active FBS winning streak at 12 games. That said, last week’s 27-24 win at Colorado was a lot tighter than it needed to be.

Utah took a 13-0 lead into halftime before Colorado ripped off 17 straight points, and the Utes needed to knock down a Hail Mary on the final play to escape Boulder. Devon Dampier threw three touchdown passes but was also picked off twice, and the 27-point showing snapped Utah’s streak of 11 straight games with at least 30 points.

Houston (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) is coming in with plenty of confidence after a 35-32 win over Oklahoma State, the Cougars’ fourth straight victory. Conner Weigman was terrific in that one, throwing for 343 yards and five touchdowns, and he’s now up to 20 touchdown passes against just two interceptions this season. Willie Fritz has Houston playing like a team that expects to be in the Big 12 title race, and a win in Salt Lake City would go a long way toward making that a reality.

Below, we break down our best bets, predictions, and the latest odds for Utah vs. Houston. Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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Utah vs. Houston prediction

On paper, this is a fun clash of styles. Houston’s offense has been one of the most efficient units in the country, moving the chains at a 52.5% success rate and converting a ridiculous 57.5% of their third downs. Weigman has been excellent at getting the ball out on time, too, and the Cougars rarely put themselves behind the sticks with sacks or negative plays.

The catch is that Houston doesn’t hit many big plays. The Cougars want to grind out long, methodical drives, and that’s a tough way to beat a Utah defense that has been stingy all season. The Utes are allowing opponents to complete just 51.4% of their passes, and they’ve been one of the best teams in the country at keeping offenses out of the end zone once they get close, giving up just 2.62 points per scoring opportunity.

That’s where I think this game gets decided. Houston will probably move the ball, but drives that stall at the 20 and end in field goals won’t be enough on the road.

On the other side, Utah’s rushing attack should be very effective. The Utes have one of the most productive ground games in the FBS, and Houston’s run defense has been pretty average. Utah also converts 50.8% of their third downs, so the Utes should be able to control the clock the same way they did against Colorado.

The bigger issue for Houston is what happens once Utah gets inside the 40. The Cougars have been the worst team in the country at preventing touchdowns in scoring range, allowing 4.82 points per opportunity. If Utah keeps finishing drives with sevens, Houston will struggle to keep pace.

The one thing I’d watch is the line of scrimmage. Utah’s offensive line has struggled to keep defenders out of the backfield, and Houston’s defense is good at creating havoc. A couple of stuffed runs or drive-killing sacks could keep the Cougars in this one. That said, I trust Utah’s defense at home, and I expect the Utes to keep their winning streak alive.

Prediction: Utah 31, Houston 28

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Utah vs. Houston odds

All odds are courtesy of bet365.

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Utah vs. Houston best bets

Utah should be favored at home, but I think this number gives the Utes a little too much credit. Houston has one of the best passing attacks in the Big 12, ranking near the top of the country in efficiency per dropback, and Conner Weigman is playing the best football of his career. That’s a tough offense to shut down for four quarters, even for a defense as good as Utah’s.

The Cougars also do a great job of protecting their quarterback. Houston has allowed defenders to blow up just 9.7% of their plays, which should help them stay on schedule against a Utah front that has lived in opposing backfields this season.

On the other side, Houston’s defense is built to cause problems for Utah. The Cougars generate plenty of tackles for loss and pressure, and the Utes have struggled to move the ball on the ground, getting stuffed at or behind the line on 22% of their carries. If Houston can win a few of those early-down battles, Utah’s offense could end up stuck settling for field goals, as it did in the first half at Colorado.

We also just saw how much trouble Utah had putting away a Colorado team that’s winless in conference play. Houston is a much more complete team than the Buffaloes, and I expect the Cougars to hang around all afternoon. I have Utah winning, but I think it’s a one-score game, so I’ll take the points with Houston.

My projected score of 31-28 puts this total over, and I think both offenses have the firepower to get there. Utah came into last week averaging more than 40 points per game, and Houston’s offense has been one of the most efficient in the country per play. Neither defense has shown it can slow the other side for four quarters.

Pace is another reason I like the over. Houston runs one of the fastest offenses in the FBS, averaging nearly 73 plays per game, which should create more possessions than a typical Utah game. The Utes will want to shorten things with their running game, but if the Cougars keep moving the ball the way they did against Oklahoma State, Utah won’t be able to sit on the ball.

Houston’s defense also hasn’t done a good job limiting big plays. The Cougars rank near the bottom of the country in explosiveness allowed, and opponents have been comfortable pushing the ball downfield. That should open up some shot plays for Devon Dampier after Colorado’s man coverage made life tough on him last week.

That said, Utah’s defense is good enough to turn a couple of Houston drives into field goals. Even so, with both teams capable of scoring in the 30s and Houston pushing the tempo, I’ll take the over.

Wayshawn Parker has been the engine of Utah’s offense, and he’s coming off a stretch where he looked like one of the best running backs in the country. He ran for 174 yards against Iowa State and followed it up with 171 yards against Kansas, becoming the first back to clear 170 in back-to-back games for the Utes this season.

What stands out most is how he’s getting those yards. Parker gained 137 of his 174 rushing yards against Iowa State after contact, and he’s made a habit of turning routine carries into big gains. His 90-yard touchdown run against Kansas shows how quickly he can rack up yardage on a single play.

Houston’s run defense hasn’t been anything special, either. The Cougars rank right around the middle of the FBS in rushing efficiency allowed, and they’ve been average at controlling the line of scrimmage. That’s a good matchup for a back who doesn’t need much space to break a tackle and get to the second level.

Houston does do a good job of getting into the backfield, so there will likely be a few carries where Parker gets dropped for a loss. That said, he only needs one or two breakaway runs to change the math on this prop, and Utah should keep feeding him if they’re trying to control the clock. At plus money, I like Parker to reach triple digits.

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SGP for Utah vs. Houston

Here is our favorite same game parlay for this top-25 showdown:

• Wayshawn Parker touchdown: Parker has found the end zone in each of Utah’s last three home games, including a three-touchdown performance in the opener against Idaho. He’s the clear focal point of the offense near the goal line, and Houston’s defense has struggled to keep teams out of the end zone once they get close.
• Utah 400+ total yards: The Utes have already cleared 500 total yards twice this season, putting up 633 against Idaho and 541 against Kansas. Houston has allowed opponents to stay on schedule far too often, and Utah’s balanced attack should be able to move the ball through the air and on the ground.
• Over 56.5 points: Houston just piled up 505 yards and 35 points against a ranked Oklahoma State team, so the Cougars should be able to hold up their end of the scoring. If Utah moves the ball the way I expect and Houston keeps pace, this game should land comfortably in the 60s.
• Odds: (+162 at FanDuel)