Thursday Night Football heads to Soldier Field as the New England Patriots (4-2) visit the Chicago Bears (4-2) on Oct. 22, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

Chicago got the best news possible Sunday in Atlanta. Caleb Williams returned from a hamstring injury that cost him three games and looked like he never left, completing 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards and a touchdown in a 31-23 win over the Falcons. He opened the game by hitting his first 12 throws, the longest streak of his career.

New England comes in just as hot. Last season’s AFC champions have won three straight behind Drake Maye and put up at least 26 points in each of those wins.

The Bears opened as 2.5-point home favorites, and early money on Chicago has pushed the number to 3 at some sportsbooks. The total sits at 49.5.

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Bears vs. Patriots prediction

This one could come down to whether Chicago’s defense can keep a lid on New England’s big plays.

Maye has completely flipped his season. After a 29.5 PFF grade in the blowout loss at Jacksonville, he’s posted marks of 84.8, 93.2 and 92.1 in the three games since. He has 11 big-time throws and just one turnover-worthy play over that stretch, and the Patriots rank sixth in explosive play rate on offense.

That’s a real concern for a Bears defense that ranks 28th in explosive play rate allowed. Chicago has been solid on a down-to-down basis, ranking eighth in EPA per play and seventh in EPA per pass, but they’ve given up too many chunk plays. It showed up again in Atlanta, where the Falcons scored twice in less than four minutes late to turn a blowout into a one-score game.

That said, the Bears have been nasty on third down. Opponents are converting just 25.8% of the time, the second-best rate in the league, and Kyler Gordon’s return makes this group even tougher. Gordon earned a 95.3 PFF grade in his season debut, piling up three sacks and two forced fumbles in only 17 snaps.

On the other side of the ball, Chicago wants to grind. The Bears lead the NFL at 72 plays per game and rank 30th in pass play rate, so expect a steady diet of the run and long drives that keep Maye on the sideline. Their offensive efficiency numbers sit in the middle of the pack, but three of those games came without Williams. He was perfect from a clean pocket Sunday, going 24-for-24, and Jonah Jackson posted an 82.5 run-blocking grade to lead the way up front.

New England’s defense is fine, but nothing really jumps off the page. They rank 14th in EPA per play and 15th in success rate allowed, which won’t scare a Bears offense that’s converting 45.5% of its third downs.

The Patriots also came out of Sunday banged up along the offensive line, and now they have to travel on a short week. Facing a defense that just got its best playmaker back makes this a tough spot.

I expect Maye to hit a couple of shots downfield, but Chicago controls the clock and gets enough stops on the money downs to win at home.

Prediction: Bears 27, Patriots 23

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Bears vs. Patriots odds

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Bears vs. Patriots best bets

This is more about volume than Odunze’s ability. He’s averaging just 3.3 receptions per game and has cleared this number only once in six contests this season. Even with Caleb Williams returning, there’s no guarantee Odunze suddenly becomes a high-volume target. Chicago has multiple options in the passing game, including Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, which makes it difficult to trust Odunze to consistently get four receptions. New England doesn’t necessarily need to shut him down completely for this ticket to cash. With the way his targets and production have fluctuated, I’m comfortable betting against him reaching four catches.

This matchup has the potential to turn into a shootout, especially with Caleb Williams back under center. Williams threw for 305 yards against Atlanta in his return, while Maye has led New England to 100 points over its last three games. The Patriots have scored at least 26 points in each of those contests, and Chicago’s defense hasn’t exactly been dominant against quality offenses. Both quarterbacks are capable of creating explosive plays, and neither defense has consistently shown it can shut down a competent passing attack. I think both teams can reach the mid-20s, giving us a reasonable path to clearing this total.

It’s hard to believe this is the same quarterback who threw one touchdown pass against six interceptions over the first three weeks. Maye has tossed 10 touchdown passes in the three games since, including three in Sunday’s win over the Jets, and he’s playing with the kind of confidence that had him in the MVP conversation last season.

The matchup sets up well for him to keep it rolling. Chicago’s defense is giving up an average depth of target of 9.6 yards, which ranks 23rd in the league, so opponents haven’t been shy about attacking them downfield. With Maye letting it rip again, I expect the Patriots to take their shots when they get the chance.

The obvious concern is volume. The Bears want to run the ball and shorten the game, which could limit how many possessions New England gets. That said, oddsmakers are expecting points with the total sitting at 50.5, and if Chicago builds a lead at home, the Patriots will have to lean on Maye’s arm to keep pace.

Gordon’s return adds some pressure off the edge, but Maye has handled the rush much better during this stretch. I’ll back him to find the end zone twice through the air Thursday night.

The Bears are a different offense with Williams under center. Chicago hung 59 points on Carolina in the opener when he threw two touchdowns, and he looked right at home in Ben Johnson’s system Sunday after nearly a month on the sideline.

I’ll concede the volume is a worry here. The Bears love to run the ball, and D’Andre Swift has been their go-to option near the goal line, which can steal touchdowns from Williams. That said, Chicago ranks fifth in average depth of target, so when they do throw, they’re pushing the ball downfield rather than dinking and dunking.

Williams also has plenty of weapons to work with. Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland give him options at every level, and Loveland already hauled in a touchdown from him in Atlanta.

New England’s pass defense hasn’t been a brick wall either. The Patriots rank 15th in EPA per pass allowed, and several of their defensive backs, including Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III, showed up on last week’s injury report.

If this game turns into the back-and-forth affair the market expects, Williams should have the chances to throw for two scores at home.

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Best SGP for Bears vs. Patriots

Here is our favorite same game parlay for Thursday Night Football:

• Drake Maye most passing yards: Chicago would rather pound the rock than throw it 40 times, which gives Maye a natural edge in this race. He’s been slinging it with confidence lately, and if the Patriots fall behind on the road, they’ll need him to air it out
• D’Andre Swift most rushing yards: The Bears lead the NFL at 173.2 rushing yards per game, and Swift is the engine of that ground attack. New England is also without TreVeyon Henderson because of a high ankle sprain, so no Patriots back is likely to see the type of workload Swift gets.
• Over 50.5 points: Both offenses are humming right now, and New England’s success rate on offense ranks 10th in the league. The Patriots just dropped 45 points on the Raiders, and Chicago’s defense hasn’t been nearly as stingy against the run, ranking 20th in EPA per rush allowed.
• Odds: (+417 at FanDuel)