The San Francisco 49ers put their perfect record on the line Monday night when they host the Washington Commanders at Levi’s Stadium, and the betting market expects the Niners to keep rolling.

San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite at FanDuel, with the total sitting at 50.5. The 49ers are coming off a 32-29 road win over the Seattle Seahawks and have covered in four of their five games this season. Washington, meanwhile, settled for a 27-27 tie with the New York Giants last week and is still looking for its first road win.

San Francisco’s road run hasn’t been smooth. The 49ers will be without pass rusher Nick Bosa (calf), and linebacker Dre Greenlaw is serving a suspension, so this defense is missing two of their biggest pieces. That matters against Jayden Daniels, even with the Commanders’ quarterback nursing a dislocated elbow that has Washington fans holding their breath on every hit.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET, and the Commanders head into their bye after this one. We break down our best bets for 49ers vs. Commanders on “Monday Night Football,” plus the latest NFL odds, predictions and sportsbook promos. Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

MORE: Beginner’s guide to futures betting

49ers vs. Commanders prediction

The 49ers are the most complete team in football right now, and the matchup on paper isn’t close. San Francisco ranks second in both EPA per play and success rate, and Brock Purdy has the league’s most efficient passing attack. He has 13 touchdown passes through five games, and Kyle Shanahan has him throwing short and on time. The 49ers rank 30th in average depth of target, but they don’t need to push the ball downfield when they’re winning every snap underneath.

That’s a problem for Washington. The Commanders’ defense ranks near the bottom of the league in completion percentage allowed and 28th in success rate, so a quick, rhythm-based passing game is about the worst thing they could face. Expect a steady diet of George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield and Mike Evans, who torched Seattle for 113 yards last week.

The Commanders’ best path to keeping this close runs through Jayden Daniels’ legs. He ran for 103 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants while wearing a brace on his left elbow, and the 49ers will be without Nick Bosa and Dre Greenlaw. That’s their top edge rusher and one of their best run-and-chase linebackers, so there should be more room for Daniels to escape and create than usual.

Even with those absences, the 49ers’ defense doesn’t give up big plays. They lead the league in explosive play rate allowed and rank fifth in EPA per rush, so Washington will have to string together long drives to score. That’s been a struggle all year. The Commanders rank 29th in third-down conversion rate, which is a tough number to carry into Levi’s Stadium.

There’s also the emotional side. Washington blew a two-touchdown fourth-quarter lead and then lost a game-winning field goal try to a clock-management mistake, and now they get a cross-country trip on a short week to face an unbeaten team. The Commanders are 0-2 on the road this season, while the 49ers are 3-0 at home.

I expect Daniels to make a handful of plays and keep Washington within shouting distance into the third quarter. The 49ers’ efficiency on early downs and third downs should eventually wear them down, though, and San Francisco controls the clock late to stay perfect.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Commanders 17

MORE: Reviewing the best NFL betting sites

49ers vs. Commanders odds

All odds are courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook. If you’re a new bet365 user, be sure to take advantage of their new-user welcome bonus

MORE: What to know about betting over/unders and totals

49ers vs. Commanders best bets

Purdy averaged nearly 252 passing yards over his first four games before Seattle held him to 189 last week. That was the toughest defense he’s seen all year, and he still led two scoring drives in the fourth quarter.

The way to attack Washington is through the air. The Commanders have been much sturdier against the run than the pass this season, holding opponents to negative EPA per carry while ranking 23rd in EPA per dropback allowed. Opponents have also completed throws against them at one of the highest rates in the league. The 49ers’ ground game has been fairly ordinary by efficiency standards, so Kyle Shanahan has every reason to put this game in Purdy’s hands.

The risk is game script. San Francisco ranks 27th in pass rate and could lean on Christian McCaffrey to run out the clock if they build a big lead. That said, Purdy is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and doesn’t need a heavy volume of throws to clear this number. With Mike Evans healthy and coming off a 113-yard game, I like Purdy to do most of the damage before halftime.

San Francisco has outscored opponents by more than 12 points per game this season and is 4-1 against the spread. This team has been winning comfortably, and the 49ers should be able to do it again against a Washington team that can’t seem to get out of its own way.

Third down is where this game swings. The 49ers convert at a league-best 51.9% clip, while the Commanders’ offense ranks 29th on third down. That means more long drives for San Francisco, more punts for Washington and a field position edge that should grow as the game goes on.

Nick Bosa’s absence makes the 49ers’ defense more beatable than usual, and Jayden Daniels has the ability to break a game open with his legs. Still, Washington just let a 27-13 fourth-quarter lead slip away against the Giants, and that’s not a team I trust to hang around for 60 minutes on the road. The Commanders are 0-2 away from home and face a cross-country trip after a draining week, while the 49ers are 3-0 at Levi’s Stadium.

Daniels ran for 103 yards in his first game back from the elbow injury, including touchdown runs of 38 and 26 yards in the second half. One game is a small sample, but it showed he’s still willing to tuck it and go even with a brace on his left arm.

The matchup sets him up well to do it again. The 49ers will be without Bosa and Dre Greenlaw, which takes away their best edge rusher and one of their fastest linebackers. San Francisco also plays a lot of zone coverage, and defenders with their backs to the quarterback tend to leave lanes open for scrambles.

If Washington falls behind as expected, Daniels will be under pressure to make something happen, and a lot of those plays will end with him running. The elbow is a fair concern, and the Commanders could try to limit his hits. Still, Daniels’ instincts took over against the Giants, and he only needs a few scrambles to clear this line.

MORE: Full guide to betting with DraftKings

Best NFL sportsbook welcome bonuses

Here are some of the current sportsbook welcome offers to consider when comparing legal betting sites. Promotions change frequently and depend on state eligibility.

MORE: Best sportsbook promos and betting app bonuses

SGP for 49ers vs. Commanders

Here is our favorite same game parlay for Monday Night Football: 

• 49ers -7.5: San Francisco ranks second in the league in EPA per play, while Washington’s defense sits 28th in success rate allowed. That gap is too wide to ignore, and I expect the 49ers to pull away in the second half.
• Christian McCaffrey 4+ receptions: The 49ers rank 30th in average depth of target, so Brock Purdy is going to keep getting the ball out quickly, and McCaffrey is his most reliable short-area option. Washington has been sturdier against the run than the pass, so getting McCaffrey the ball in space as a receiver is the best way to put him to work.
• 49ers first half moneyline: Purdy has been sharp from the opening drive this season, and the Commanders’ offense ranks 19th in EPA per play, making it hard for them to keep pace early. San Francisco should take control before halftime and not need a late comeback.
• Odds (+194 at DraftKings)