For years, Miami vs. Florida State settled national championships. On Saturday night, it feels more like a referendum on Mike Norvell.

No. 3 Miami (5-0) hosts Florida State (3-3) at Hard Rock Stadium on Oct. 17 at 7 p.m. ET, and the Hurricanes are 21-point favorites.

At one point, this rivalry stopped the college football world. Bobby Bowden’s Seminoles and the swaggering Hurricanes of the late ’80s and early ’90s were regulars at the top of the polls, and back-to-back missed kicks in 1991 and 1992 gave the series its “Wide Right” legacy. Even now, the all-time ledger is close, with Miami holding a 37-33 edge.

The meetings have usually stayed tight, too. Last year’s game in Tallahassee finished 28-22, though that score flatters the Seminoles a bit since Miami led 28-3 heading into the fourth quarter.

That said, it’s tough to pretend this one carries the same weight. Miami played for a national title last season and hasn’t been seriously tested this fall. Florida State is on the opposite track. The Seminoles let a winnable game get away in a 44-20 loss at Louisville last week, and Norvell still hasn’t won a road game in more than 1,000 days.

Rivalry games have a way of making the records look meaningless. Right now, though, Florida State needs a lot more than history to keep this one close.

We break down our best bets, predictions, and more for Saturday’s Miami vs. Florida State matchup. Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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Miami vs. Florida State prediction

Florida State’s best path to keeping this one close runs straight through the ground game, and that’s exactly where Miami is built to shut them down.

The Seminoles are a good rushing team. They rank eighth nationally in expected points added per rush and 19th in line yards, and Ashton Daniels has been a big part of that with nine rushing touchdowns as the quarterback in Norvell’s offense. Florida State leans on it heavily, too, throwing the ball less often than most teams in the country.

The problem is that Miami’s front doesn’t give much of anything away. The Hurricanes rank seventh in EPA allowed per rush, fifth in stuff rate and fourth in line yards allowed, so those clean running lanes Florida State has found against lesser defenses should close quickly. And if the Seminoles get behind schedule and have to throw, that’s not a comfortable spot for an offense completing just 58.1% of its passes. Miami also tightens up near the goal line, ranking fourth in points allowed per scoring opportunity.

On the other side, this looks like a full-blown mismatch. Miami has the No. 1 offense in the country in EPA per play, while Florida State ranks 123rd defensively in the same metric. The Seminoles have struggled to stop the run, struggled to stop the pass, and been gashed by big plays all season.

Darian Mensah has been about as good as it gets. He leads all qualifying Power Four quarterbacks with a 92.6 PFF passing grade, and he’s been just as sharp against the blitz as he is when defenses sit back, so Florida State can’t simply send extra pressure and hope to rattle him. Miami’s offensive line has given him plenty of time, too, allowing a havoc rate of just 8.9%, the third-lowest mark in the country. Mensah is completing 80.8% of his throws, working the short and intermediate areas and letting Malachi Toney and the rest of his receivers do damage after the catch.

The one thing working against a blowout is the pace. Miami plays slow, ranking 120th in plays per game, so there won’t be as many possessions as you’d expect from a 21-point spread. That said, the Hurricanes are so efficient when they do have the ball that it’s hard to see that saving Florida State. Miami ranks sixth at finishing drives and second in success rate, which means fewer possessions should still end in a lot of touchdowns.

Coming off a bye, at home, with a rival that just got embarrassed on the road, this sets up for Miami to make a statement. I expect the Hurricanes to control the line of scrimmage on both sides and pull away by halftime.

Prediction: Miami 42, Florida State 13

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Miami vs. Florida State odds

All odds are courtesy of bet365.

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Miami vs. Florida State best bets

Cooper Barkate came to Miami with plenty of hype after following Darian Mensah over from Duke, and it took a few weeks for the production to catch up. Defenses keyed on him early, and he had some quiet outings in September, including just 13 yards at Wake Forest.

That said, the arrow is pointing in the right direction. Barkate has found the end zone in four of his five games, and he’s coming off his best performance in a Miami uniform with five catches for 98 yards and a touchdown at Clemson before the bye. The chemistry with Mensah that made him one of the most productive receivers in the ACC last season is starting to show up again.

The matchup sets up nicely for him to keep it rolling. Florida State’s pass defense has been a problem all year, ranking 109th in EPA allowed per dropback, and opponents are completing 64.3% of their throws against the Seminoles. Malachi Toney is going to draw a lot of attention, which should leave Barkate working against softer coverage in the middle of the field, right where he does his best work.

The biggest risk here is the game script. If Miami builds a big lead early, the Hurricanes could lean on the run and pull their starters in the fourth quarter. Still, Mensah has been efficient enough that Barkate doesn’t need a full four quarters of volume to get there. A couple of chunk plays in the first half could put him most of the way to this number, and I like him to clear it before the backups come in.

I know Robinson has been quiet over his last two games, but this feels like a great opportunity to buy low. Robinson is averaging 49 receiving yards per game and has cleared this number in three of six contests, including a 135-yard performance against Alabama. He’s also averaging 17.3 yards per reception, meaning he doesn’t need significant volume to get over this number. Miami enters as a massive favorite, and I expect Florida State to spend much of this game playing from behind. That should force Ashton Daniels to throw more frequently and create opportunities for Robinson downfield. The matchup isn’t ideal against Miami’s defense, but the expected game script and Robinson’s big-play ability make this an intriguing over.

This one goes against the grain a bit, since I expect Miami to control the game, but Ousmane Kromah has been one of the few things Florida State can count on this season.

The sophomore has been the clear lead back, and he reached 80 rushing yards in each of his first five games. That includes a trip to Tuscaloosa, where he ran for 80 yards against an Alabama defense that had been allowing almost nothing on the ground through the first couple of weeks. So he’s already shown he can find yards against a top-tier front.

A lot of that comes from how hard he is to bring down. Through the first two games, Kromah had piled up 180 of his 231 yards after contact and forced 10 missed tackles, according to PFF. He doesn’t need perfect blocking to pick up chunks, and that matters against a Miami front that will win its fair share of battles at the line.

There’s no hiding from the risks. Miami is as tough as it gets against the run, and if this turns ugly early, Florida State could abandon the ground game and lean on Ashton Daniels to throw. Daniels also vultures some of the rushing work as a runner himself.

That said, Norvell’s offense is built around the run, and the Seminoles aren’t going to throw that out the window in the first half of a rivalry game. Kromah should get his 15 or so carries, and with his ability to break tackles, one or two longer runs could carry him past this number. At 55.5, this line is set well below what he’s done all season, and I’ll take the over.

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SGP for Miami vs. Florida State

Here is our favorite same game parlay for this rivalry game: 

• Miami -21.5: Miami has blown out nearly everyone on the schedule, and Florida State hasn’t won a road game in years. With the Hurricanes coming off a bye and the Seminoles reeling, I expect this one to get out of hand by the second half.
• Mark Fletcher touchdown: Fletcher already has five rushing touchdowns this season, including two at Clemson before the bye. Javian Mallory will steal some work, but Fletcher is still Miami’s go-to back near the goal line.
• Miami 475+ yards of total offense: The Hurricanes are averaging 554 yards per game despite playing at a slow pace, picking up more than 8 yards every snap. Florida State just gave up 397 rushing yards to Louisville, so this number looks very reachable.
• Odds: (+230 at DraftKings)