Lamar Jackson is officially out with an ankle injury, so Tyler Huntley will get the nod on Sunday Night Football for the Ravens against the Falcons this week at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. 

Baltimore enters 3-1 and looking for a third straight win after grinding out a 24-18 victory over the Titans, and they’ve been strong away from home with a perfect 2-0 record on the road. But will the injury to Jackson be too much to overcome?

The 2-2 Falcons are riding high after hanging 45 points on the Saints on Monday night, with Bijan Robinson running wild for 145 yards and two touchdowns. The catch is the quick turnaround, since Atlanta gets one less day to prepare after playing in primetime to close out Week 4.

Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC, and we break down our best bets, predictions, and sportsbook promos for the Ravens vs. Falcons matchup below. Plus, new users can bet $5 on this game and get $150 in Bonus Bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Falcons vs. Ravens prediction

The numbers paint a clear picture of how Atlanta wins this game, and it starts with the ground. The Falcons run the ball more than anyone in the league, and it’s not just for volume’s sake. They rank second in EPA per rush and fifth in success rate, so they’re consistently staying ahead of the chains even without much help from the passing game. That matters against a Ravens defense that’s been middle of the pack against the run, sitting 16th in EPA per rush allowed.

On the other side, Baltimore’s offense has been one of the best in football in terms of efficiency. They’re fourth in EPA per play, second in success rate and second in explosive play rate, which is a big reason they’ve jumped out to a 3-1 start. That said, a lot of that production runs through Lamar Jackson, and the Ravens’ biggest weakness is right in front of him. PFF has their pass blocking ranked 28th, and Baltimore has converted just 32.4% of their third downs this season. With Tyler Huntley getting the start, those protection issues become a lot harder to hide.

The Falcons also have the perfect counter to what the Ravens like to do. Baltimore is one of the league’s more run-heavy teams, and Atlanta’s defense has been the best in the NFL at shutting it down, leading the league in EPA per rush allowed. Force the Ravens into obvious passing downs behind a shaky offensive line and backup QB, and the Falcons’ defense, which ranks third in success rate, should be able to get off the field. Atlanta also holds a slight edge on special teams, and in a game that could come down to a field goal, that’s worth something.

Penix hasn’t been asked to do much through the air, and the Falcons’ passing efficiency is the clear red flag in this matchup. Still, Atlanta doesn’t need him to win it. Their run game controls the clock, their defense takes away Baltimore’s ground attack, and that’s enough to pull off the upset at home.

Prediction: Falcons 24, Ravens 20

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Falcons vs. Ravens odds

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Falcons vs. Ravens best bets

The Falcons have turned things around offensively, scoring 45 points against the Saints after putting together an impressive performance against the Packers. Atlanta is averaging 181 rushing yards per game, with Bijan Robinson already accounting for 494 yards through four games. More importantly, Baltimore will be without Lamar Jackson, who suffered an ankle injury against Tennessee. The Ravens are also dealing with offensive line injuries, which could make moving the football difficult against an Atlanta defense allowing just 48.2 rushing yards per game. I like the Falcons to take advantage of Baltimore’s injuries and win by more than a field goal.

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Baltimore’s quarterback situation is the biggest reason I’m targeting the under. If Tyler Huntley starts in place of Jackson, expect the Ravens to lean heavily on Derrick Henry and their rushing attack. The problem is that Atlanta has been the NFL’s best run defense through four games, allowing just 2.72 yards per carry. Baltimore could struggle to sustain drives, while Atlanta’s run-heavy approach should help keep the clock moving. With both teams capable of controlling possession and limiting explosive plays, I expect this game to stay under 43.5 points.

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Robinson has been outstanding to start the season, rushing for 494 yards through four games while Atlanta averages 5.2 yards per carry. He’s the centerpiece of an offense that has scored 79 points over its last two games, and his versatility makes him difficult to defend near the goal line. Baltimore is allowing 100 rushing yards per game, and the Ravens’ injury concerns could make it difficult to keep Atlanta out of scoring position. The Falcons have converted 80% of their red-zone opportunities into touchdowns this season, giving Robinson plenty of opportunities to cash this ticket. At +260, I like the value on Atlanta’s most dangerous offensive player to score the game’s first touchdown.

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Best SGP for Falcons vs. Ravens

Here is our favorite same game parlay for Sunday Night Football:

• Falcons moneyline: Atlanta has the formula to beat Baltimore at home, leaning on a ground game that keeps the Ravens’ explosive offense on the sideline. With Lamar Jackson’s ankle still a question mark, I like the Falcons to grind this one out and win outright.
• Brian Robinson Jr. 30+ rushing yards: The Falcons have thrown the ball less than anyone in the league this season, so there’s plenty of work to go around in the backfield. Robinson doesn’t need a huge share of the carries to clear 30 yards, especially if Atlanta is protecting a lead in the fourth quarter.
• Drake London 6+ receptions: The Ravens have one of the better pass defenses in the league by PFF’s grades, so this leg comes with some risk. That said, Michael Penix Jr. lives on short, quick throws, and when the Falcons do throw, London is the guy they’re looking for. Those easy completions should add up for him by the end of the night.
• Odds: (+272 at DraftKings)