No. 4 Miami heads to Memorial Stadium for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC. The Hurricanes are 4-0 and coming off a 52-3 blowout of Central Michigan, and Darian Mensah has the offense looking like one of the best in the country.

Meanwhile, Clemson is 3-1 and has won three straight since getting blown out 51-10 by LSU in the opener. Miami is laying about 17.5 points, the biggest spread a Memorial Stadium visitor has seen in the Dabo Swinney era.

That’s a lot of points to give in Death Valley at night, and the Tigers have quietly found their footing behind their run game and a ball-hawking secondary. The problem is that Clemson’s offense still hasn’t shown it can keep up with a team like this. If they can’t move the ball through the air, it’s hard to see how they hang around for four quarters.

Below, I break down the odds, best bets, and predictions for Saturday’s ACC showdown. Plus, new users can bet $5 on this game and get $150 in Bonus Bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Clemson vs. Miami prediction

Miami is the much better team on paper, and the matchup backs that up. The Hurricanes rank fifth in SP+, while Clemson sits 54th. The question is whether Miami can win big on the road at night, and I think they can.

It starts with Mensah, who’s been nearly perfect. He’s completing 88.7% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions, and he ranks No. 1 in ESPN’s QBR. He also has Malachi Toney, one of the best receivers in the country through four games.

Clemson’s offense is the bigger issue. The Tigers rank 117th in EPA per play, and freshman quarterback Tait Reynolds has thrown one touchdown and two interceptions since taking over for Christopher Vizzina. He’s also been sacked 10 times behind a shaky offensive line. Now he gets a Miami defense that’s allowing just 40.3 rushing yards per game, the best mark in the country. If Clemson can’t run the ball, Reynolds will be stuck in a lot of third-and-longs.

Clemson’s defense is legit. They rank 24th in SP+, and cornerbacks Elliot Washington II and Ashton Hampton have been all over the ball. Washington has three interceptions, including two against Cal last week. Swinney’s teams have also been tough at home at night, going 27-5 under the lights in Death Valley. Expect the crowd to keep this close early.

That said, I don’t think Clemson has enough offense to stay with Miami for four quarters. Mensah has been too accurate to give the Tigers many takeaway chances, and the Hurricanes should pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Miami 34, Clemson 13

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Clemson vs. Miami odds

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

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Clemson vs. Miami best bets

I’m comfortable laying the points with Miami. The Hurricanes are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games, and they’ve been covering big numbers all season. Clemson’s offense doesn’t look capable of keeping pace. The Tigers are converting only 27% of their third downs, and that’s a tough way to live against a defense this good.

The Tigers have won four straight at Memorial Stadium, and a night crowd can make anyone uncomfortable for a quarter or two. But this is a big step up from Georgia Southern and Cal. Miami should get stops, Mensah should keep moving the chains, and I expect the Hurricanes to win this one by three scores.

This bet is on Clemson’s offense not doing its part. The Tigers have scored 84 points in four games, including a game against Georgia Southern. Now they face a Miami defense that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season and is giving up less than 2 yards per carry.

The over has hit in five of the last seven meetings in this series, but those were different teams. I expect Miami to do most of the scoring here, and if they get up big in the second half, they should lean on the run and drain the clock. I have this game finishing in the 40s.

Davidson has been the bright spot for Clemson’s offense. He has 346 rushing yards and three touchdowns, averaging nearly 6 yards per carry, and he’s coming off a 159-yard, two-touchdown game against Cal.

The matchup is a lot tougher this week. Miami has been the best run defense in the country, and with Ahmad Moten Sr. expected back on the interior, it should only get better. If Miami jumps out to an early lead, as I expect, Clemson will be forced to throw, and Davidson’s carries will dry up. Can he really find running room against this front?

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Best college football sportsbook promos

If you’re looking to get in on the betting action for the college football season but are new to some of the best sportsbooks in your area, take advantage of their new user promos and welcome bonuses.

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SPG for Clemson vs. Miami

Here is our favorite SGP for the game: 

• Miami -16.5: Clemson’s offense hasn’t shown it can keep up with a team like this, and the Tigers have really struggled on third down. Miami should get stops and pull away in the second half.
• Mark Fletcher touchdown: Fletcher is back healthy and has already found the end zone three times this season. If Miami gets ahead, they’ll lean on him to finish drives and run out the clock.
• Darian Mensah 300+ passing yards: Mensah is averaging right around 300 yards a game and has barely missed a throw all season. With Malachi Toney on the outside, he can reach this even if Miami takes their foot off the gas late.
• Odds (+465 at DraftKings)

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