No. 7 Ohio State visits No. 17 Iowa on Saturday at Kinnick Stadium, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET. The Big Ten matchup pits one of the conference’s heavyweights against a Hawkeyes team that has looked sharp early, and oddsmakers see a clear gap between them.

Ohio State opened as a 14-point favorite, and Iowa was listed at +14 at DraftKings as of Sept. 24. The moneyline tells a similar story: it implies Iowa has about a 16% chance of winning once you remove the sportsbook’s margin. Those numbers can move before kickoff, so check your sportsbook for the latest line.

The Hawkeyes have given bettors a reason to think about the points. Iowa began the season 3-0, allowing just 4.3 points per game and beat Northern Iowa 55-0 in its most recent game in the available data.

Ohio State, meanwhile, has an offense that can put up big numbers. The Buckeyes were averaging 46 points a game and routed Kent State 59-3 on Sept. 19. Below, our experts break down the odds, offer their best bets and predictions, and highlight the latest sportsbook promos for Saturday’s game. Plus, new users can bet $5 on this game and get $150 in Bonus Bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction

Ohio State is the better team, but this isn’t an easy game for anyone. Iowa is 4-0 after Hank Brown found Reece Vander Zee for a touchdown on the final play of a 20-19 win at Michigan. College GameDay is in town for the first time since 2006, and Kinnick Stadium will be bumping. Even so, I like the Buckeyes to win and cover.

I’d be naive to dismiss the environment. It’s one of the hardest places to play in the Big Ten, and the Hawkeyes will always remember when they dominated the Buckeyes by more than 30 points in 2017. Iowa also knows how to hang around as an underdog. They are 6-0 against the spread as the dog since the start of last season.

Their defense is the reason, and it’s allowing just 8.0 points per game, the best mark in the nation. Iowa’s defense ranks third in the country in success rate allowed (22.1%) and 21st in PPA per play (-0.09). That is a problem for an offense that wants to grind out a long, methodical drive.

The good news for Ohio State is that they don’t have to. Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith are playing at an insane level right now. Sayin went 27-of-36 for 367 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois, and Smith caught 12 balls for 217 yards and four scores. The data says this is a mismatch. Ohio State ranks 16th in PPA per pass (0.61) and 12th in average depth of target (11.50). Iowa’s defense ranks 120th in aDOT allowed (11.02), which tells me teams are getting chances downfield. Iowa’s secondary just allowed 236 receiving yards to two Michigan pass catchers, and Smith is a lot harder to handle than anyone on that Michigan roster.

My one concern is the ground game. Ohio State is 70th in PPA per rush (0.01), and Iowa’s run defense is 28th (-0.17), so I wouldn’t be shocked if some drives stall and end in field goals. But the Buckeyes don’t need 12 plays when one throw to Smith can do the job. On the other side, Iowa is 58th in PPA per play (0.13), 89th in explosiveness and 92nd in finishing drives. Against an Ohio State defense that’s 28th in PPA per play and 19th against the pass, Brown will have to put together long drives and cash in. I don’t trust that to happen consistently enough to keep this inside two touchdowns.

Prediction: Ohio State 31, Iowa 13

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Ohio State vs. Iowa odds

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

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Ohio State vs. Iowa best bets

I already laid out why I like Ohio State’s passing game in this matchup, so I’m not shy about betting the best player in college football. Smith has 33 catches and seven touchdowns through four games, and he’s two touchdowns shy of the school’s career record. The Buckeyes have really struggled to run the ball this season, so I expect them to lean on Sayin to Smith to finish drives rather than trying to run between the tackles.

Of course, Smith likely won’t find the end zone four times again in this one, but +200 is a great price if Ohio State gets anywhere near 31 points. He’s the most likely player to be responsible for a lot of them, and I think that price is too long for the best receiver on the field.

I get why Moulton is a popular name, since Iowa wants to run the ball and shorten the game. But the matchup and the script both point toward the under. Ohio State is a two-touchdown favorite, and if they jump out early, the Hawkeyes will have to lean on Brown’s arm to catch up. Moulton also isn’t getting much volume, with just 40 run snaps through three games, and he’s sharing the backfield with LJ Phillips and Xavier Williams.

The PFF grades tell the rest of the story. His 93.0 run grade in the opener was elite, but it came on 50- and 37-yard touchdown runs against a Northern Illinois team that never made it competitive. In the two games since, he graded out at 64.6 against Iowa State and 62.0 at Michigan, which is solid but nothing special. Granted, one explosive run can ruin this bet. But I expect Ohio State to be a much tougher test than Northern Illinois.

I get why 14.5 looks low. Iowa hung 40 on Northern Illinois and 55 on Northern Iowa, but neither opponent was in the same universe as Ohio State. At Michigan, the Hawkeyes scored 20 and needed a touchdown on the final play to get there. This offense isn’t built to score quickly. They run about 55 plays a game, complete only 60% of their passes, and convert just 37.9% of their third downs. They also throw short, with an average depth of target around 8 yards, so they need long, clean drives to put up points.

Granted, Ohio State’s defense isn’t perfect. They aren’t great at getting off the field on third down, and they don’t consistently stuff the run. Iowa also got a 77-yard punt return touchdown in the opener, so they don’t always need the offense to get there. But the Buckeyes have enough to make Iowa string together drives, and I expect them to control this game with Sayin and Smith. If they do, Iowa’s total stays under.

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Best college football sportsbook promos

If you’re looking to get in on the betting action for the college football season but are new to some of the best sportsbooks in your area, take advantage of their new user promos and welcome bonuses.

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SPG for Ohio State vs. Iowa

• Ohio State -14.5: The Buckeyes have a way of turning close games into comfortable ones. They beat Illinois by 23 last week, and the last time they played Iowa (2024), they won 35-7. I think this is a three-score game.
• Iowa team total under 14.5: Iowa’s offense has to go on long, clean drives to score, and Ohio State’s defense is built to make that hard. If Iowa can’t find easy points, they’ll struggle to reach 15.
• Under 45.5: Neither team plays fast, and Ohio State averages only about 54 plays a game. If they control the clock and Iowa can’t score, this lands in the low 40s. The three legs all work off the same game script, which is a big reason I like them together.
• Odds: (+290 at DraftKings)

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