For the second straight season, Indiana is on the bubble for the 2026 NCAA Tournament heading into the last week of the regular season. 

Indiana (18-12, 9-10 Big Ten) missed the tournament last season and finished 19-14. The Hoosiers enter Saturday’s game at Ohio State (19-11, 11-8 Big Ten) with a chance to get to .500 in conference play. 

It’s been an up-and-down year for first-year coach Darian DeVries. The Hoosiers are 1-6 against ranked teams this season and they have lost four of their last five games. Still, a .500 record in Big Ten play and a win or two in the upcoming conference tournament would keep the Hoosiers’ hopes alive. Senior guard Lamar Wilkerson (21.1 points per game) ranks second in the Big Ten in scoring. 

Can he lead a tournament push in March? The Big Ten tournament runs March 10-15 at the United Center in Chicago. 

Will Indiana make a run? A closer look at their chances.

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Indiana and the Big Ten Tournament

The Hoosiers are positioned to be no lower than a No. 10 seed in the Big Ten tournament, and that will be the likely landing spot. As of now, Indiana would open Big Ten play in the second round – and the projected matchup would be against the winner of a first-round game between Northwestern (13-17, 5-14) and Penn State (12-18, 3-16). 

Indiana advanced to the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament in 2022 and 2023 in Mike Woodson’s first two seasons. The Hoosiers were knocked out in the quarterfinals in 2024 and lost in the second round – a 72-59 loss to Oregon – in the second round last season. 

The Hoosiers have never won the Big Ten tournament. Indiana advanced to the championship game in 2001 before losing to Iowa 63-61.

Indiana’s strength of victory

Indiana has one of the strongest ranking combinations among the bubble teams fighting to get into the tournament. The Hoosiers are ranked No. 37 in NET and No. 41 in KenPom. 

The Hoosiers are 2-10 against Quad 1 opponents – which is the same record as Ohio State. The Buckeyes, however, have the benefit of a stronger record in Big Ten play and a better record against Quad 2 opponents at 6-1. Ohio State is safely off the bubble, at least for now. 

The Hoosiers’ best win – a 72-67 victory against Purdue on Jan. 27 – was undone a bit in the rematch as the Boilermakers won 93-64 on Feb. 20. Indiana does have a strong strength-of-schedule metric in their favor. The Hoosiers played Louisville and Kentucky in non-conference play, and the Big Ten schedule had road games at Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois. 

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Indiana weak spots

Yeah, the strength of schedule, but IU lost those four road games to the Wolverines, Spartans, Boilermakers and Illini by an average of 20.5 points. Indiana also has a 3-2 record against Quad 2 opponents. Losses to Northwestern and Minnesota are tough to get past. 

Still, Indiana does have a perfect record in Quads 3-4, and a .500 record in Big Ten play would help heading into the Big Ten tournament. 

Indiana Hoosiers rankings

Indiana Hoosiers record by quadrants

• Quad 1: 2-10
• Quad 2: 3-2
• Quad 3: 6-0
• Quad 4: 7-0

Will Indiana make the NCAA Tournament?

So, are the Hoosiers in or out? Sporting News’ latest bracketology has the Hoosiers among the First Four Out of the tournament along with Auburn, Cal and Seton Hall. 

Mike DeCourcy also has the Hoosiers among the First Four Out in his latest Field of 68 forecast

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Hoosiers as the Last Team In in his latest Bracketology. 

It’s safe to say Indiana is the ultimate bubble team heading into the final weekend of the regular season.