Seeking to break into the coveted Champions League knockout-stage byes, Chelsea face a tricky prospect as they travel to Italy for their league-phase finale against Napoli on Wednesday.

The Blues are right on the cusp of a top-eight spot in the standings, entering the final matchday sitting in the final such place. With Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle United, the two teams above them, facing each other in their final match, jockeying for places both above and below Chelsea is inevitable.

Automatic passage through to the Round of 16 comes with one of those positions, while those finishing ninth through 24th must navigate a precarious knockout playoff.

Napoli, on the other hand, are just trying to make it through to the knockout round any way they can muster. The Italian side sit 25th, residing in the first elimination position. Having won just one of their last six matches across all competitions and coming off an embarrassing 3-0 defeat to Juventus, Antonio Conte will be seeking a reversal of fortunes as his old Premier League side come to visit.

MORE: Latest Chelsea team news and injury updates ahead of their upcoming match

Napoli vs. Chelsea prediction, odds

A draw doesn’t exactly help Chelsea in their endeavor to secure a top-eight position — in fact, it would almost certainly mean they’d miss out — but it’s hard to see the Blues extra motivated to earn the bye when they already have long since wrapped up a general place in the knockout stage.

The Blues have often rotated their squad in European play and could do so again here, which could present Napoli with a chance. On the flip side, Napoli have really struggled to find the back of the net in recent games, so the Blues could be happy to grind out a point on the road and look ahead to the knockouts.

This match has all the makings of a low-scoring, physical tussle that sees both sides cancel each other out.

Napoli vs. Chelsea match facts

• Date: Wednesday, January 28, 2026
• Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
• Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples, Italy)
• Referee: Clement Turpin (FRA)
• Last meeting: Chelsea 4-1 Napoli (Mar. 14, 2012 | Champions League)

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

Napoli vs. Chelsea best bet

• Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
• Odds: -105 (DraftKings)

Chelsea have conceded just two goals over their past four games that weren’t against Arsenal.

That form matches up very well against a Napoli side who have gone dormant in recent weeks, scoring just two goals in their past four games. The Italian side’s attacking woes reached new heights over the most recent two games, when they put together just one goal on 1.54 xG against a Copenhagen side that played down a man for nearly an hour, followed up by a woeful 3-0 defeat at Juventus where they managed just 0.52 xG on nine total shots.

Chelsea’s biggest playmaker Cole Palmer is still likely struggling for full match fitness and could come off the bench, while Liam Rosenior could rotate some other players within the squad as well to keep everyone fit. Napoli, meanwhile, are without Kevin De Bruyne who is missing with a long-term hamstring injury, and Romelu Lukaku is only just recently back from his long-term fitness absence.

Napoli vs. Chelsea prop bet

• Pick: Enzo Fernandez to score or assist a goal
• Odds: +160 (FanDuel)

With Palmer likely to come off the bench, Enzo Fernandez will take his place at the No. 10 position where he has been excellent throughout Palmer’s injury struggles.

The Argentine has just one assist in the Champions League this season, but he has deserved much more. He logged three chances created against Pafos in their penultimate league-phase match, and his lone chance created against Atalanta the game prior was a glorious opportunity in the 94th minute worth 0.43 xA, which Joao Pedro put straight at the goalkeeper.

He has profited in front of goal recently in Premier League action, logging four goal contributions over his past five games.