If the NFC playoffs started in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL regular season, the Detroit Lions would be out. The Lions went a combined 27-7 to take the past two NFC North titles, but at 6-4 through Week 11, they still have work to do to ensure a third straight postseason trip.
Following the Lions’ rough 16-9 loss at the reigning Super Bowl champion and current NFC top seed Eagles on Sunday night, here’s a look at where Detroit stands in the NFC playoff picture.
Lions’ current playoff picture
The Lions started Week 11 in first place with the No. 3 seed in the NFC. But after the Bears (7-3) beat the Vikings and the Packers (6-3-1) beat the Giants, the Lions didn’t get the needed win over the Eagles to keep pace.
Now the Lions are a full game behind the new No. 3 seed Bears and half-game behind the No. 6 seed Packers. They also now are a half-game behind the 7-4 49ers, who beat the Cardinals in Arizona to get back into the final NFC wild-card spot.
MORE: Updated NFL Playoff Picture For Week 11
What are the Lions’ chances to win the NFC North?
The Lions are 1-2 in division games and 3-3 in conference games. They have lost on the road in the division to the Packers, split with the Vikings and beat the Bears at home. Detroit has three NFC North games left, with Green Bay still coming to Detroit in Week 13, plus at Minnesota and at Chicago back-to-back to close the season in Week 17 and 18 respectively.
The Bears are also 1-2 in the division and the Packers still have five more division games left and are 1-0 after beating the Lions at Lambeau Field in Week 1. That’s a lot of division play left for the final seven weeks of the season.
The great news for Detroit is the fact it has three straight games at Ford Field, where it plays much better (vs. Giants, vs. Packers, vs. Cowboys). The Steelers are the Lions’ final home opponent in Week 16. Also, the Lions don’t have a game outdoors again until Week 18 in Chicago, with road games against the dome-based Vikings and Rams.
Overall, other than a Rams revenge game vs. Matthew Stafford, the Lions will be favored in at least five of their final seven games. That gives them a chance to match their 12-5 record from last season, or at worst, finish 11-6.
In contrast, the Bears have three tough road games at Philadelphia, Green Bay and San Francisco left. They also have to host the Packers and Steelers at home. The Packers, other than the pair of games against the Bears and Vikings, have a road rematch with the Lions, while also traveling to the Broncos and hosting the Ravens.
Between Chicago, Green Bay and Minnesota, there will be a lot of round-robin dents given. With little separation and a front-loaded first-place schedule, the Lions now have an advantage facing a much more favorable finish.
The Lions’ losses have come to the Packers, Chiefs, Vikings and Eagles. Three of them were in brutal road environments vs. tough defenses. On flip side, Detroit tends to beat up on lesser teams with their explosive offense. The Bears also have had no true clunkers, while the Packers (see Carolina, Cleveland) have.
Don’t be fooled about where the Lions are now. They are still motoring toward another division title in the bigger playoff picture. Five more wins should do it. They still have a greater than 75 percent chance to win the division.
MORE: Bears, Packers win to shake up NFC North standings
Lions’ NFC wild-card chances
If the Lions don’t win the division, the first-place Bears are more likely to take the NFC North crown over the second-place Packers. Meanwhile, Detroit should fall back on a wild card spot at 11-6, as the Seahawks, Packers and 49ers are all vulnerable enough as a whole for Detroit to supplant one of those teams.
The Lions at worst will not miss the playoffs and earn the No. 7 seed, earning a high-stake rematch with either the Eagles or Rams.
