Israel are hot on the heels of Italy in their World Cup qualifying group, with the two set to play a pivotal match that will be crucial for the visitors to snatch a result in Udine.
Ran Ben Shimon’s side are within striking distance of a UEFA playoff spot, but have very little margin for error as they get set for a Tuesday matchup against the Azzurri, who sit directly above them in the qualification standings.
However, the situation is dire, and there is no room for error, as dropped points of any kind would effectively see Israel eliminated. Even if they complete a remarkable late comeback, they would still need to win their ensuing playoff bracket to reach the hallowed FIFA tournament.
The Sporting News brings you a full look at where Israel sit in their qualifying group and what they must do to snatch a spot at the 2026 World Cup. It doesn’t look great for the European side.
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Can Israel qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
As of the build-up to Israel’s match against Italy on October 14, Israel mathematically cannot finish first in Group I and earn the direct qualifying spot, but they still can finish second and qualify for the UEFA playoff.
It starts with beating Italy, the team above them in the standings, to have any realistic shot at the second-place spot in the standings. While Israel are not mathematically eliminated with a draw, Italy would effectively be out of reach. A defeat to Italy, however, would leave Israel mathematically eliminated from contention.
The key is that Israel have played one more game than Italy, and therefore do not have as many chances remaining to make up the gap. Following this match to conclude the October international break, Israel have just one more qualifier left on the schedule, a home match against Moldova on November 16. Italy, meanwhile, have matches against Moldova and group leaders Norway.
MORE: Erling Haaland, Norway sink Israel in tense UEFA World Cup qualifier
Israel World Cup qualifying standings
| Pos | Nation | GP | Pts | W-D-L | GD |
| 1. | Norway | 6 | 18 | 6-0-0 | +26 |
| 2. | Italy | 5 | 12 | 4-0-1 | +7 |
| 3. | Israel | 6 | 9 | 3-0-3 | -1 |
| 4. | Estonia | 6 | 3 | 1-0-5 | -10 |
| 5. | Moldova | 5 | 0 | 0-0-5 | -22 |
Israel sit third in their World Cup qualifying group.
The group winner earns direct qualification to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, while the second-place finisher qualifies for participation in the UEFA playoff round, where they would be drawn as part of a four-team mini bracket and must win their ensuing two knockout games to earn a spot.
Teams finishing third through fifth are eliminated.
How can Israel qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Norway have all but wrapped up qualification as the group winner, and can only be realistically caught by Italy if the Azzurri win all three of their remaining fixtures, including the group finale between Italy and Norway.
Israel, meanwhile, are only in contention for second place and mathematically cannot achieve direct qualification.
For Israel to catch Italy in second, they very likely need to beat the Italians in their October 14 matchup, otherwise the cause is all but lost.
Israel World Cup qualifying scenarios
For Israel to finish second in Group I, and therefore reach the UEFA World Cup qualification playoff round, the following must come to pass:
- Israel def. Italy and Moldova, AND Italy fail to win against both Moldova and Norway.
- Israel def. Italy and Moldova, AND Italy def. Moldova, AND Italy lose vs. Norway, AND Israel make up eight-goal differential disadvantage.
- Israel draw with Italy, AND Israel def. Moldova, AND Italy lose to both Moldova and Norway, AND Israel make up eight-goal differential disadvantage.
Should any of these pathways towards a second-place finish come to pass, Israel would still need to win their playoff bracket to qualify for the World Cup.
If Israel lose to Italy or Moldova, they are eliminated from contention.
Has Israel ever made the FIFA World Cup before?
Israel first organised its national federation in 1948. Thus, the first time they were eligible to contest World Cup qualification was in the 1950 cycle.
Israel has qualified for one World Cup in its history, reaching the 1970 tournament in Mexico, where they were eliminated in the group stage after finishing bottom of Group 2 behind Italy, Uruguay, and Sweden.
Since then, Israel have not qualified for a World Cup tournament, coming closest in 1998, 2022, 2006, 2014, and 2022 with third-place finishes in their group, all one place out of moving on to the next round.
