The United States entered the 2025 Ryder Cup hungry for a win and confident it had the roster to deliver. That optimism lasted only one day once play began on Friday.
Europe seized control with a dominant Day 1, and there was no rally from the Americans on Saturday, leaving the U.S. on the ropes on its own soil.
The 12-man U.S. squad isn’t counting itself out yet, but a comeback would require something monumental.
Here’s a look at the Americans’ chances on Sunday — and the scenarios that could lead to a stunning Ryder Cup win.
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Can USA still win the Ryder Cup?
Yes, the USA can still mathematically win the Ryder Cup. That doesn’t make it realistic — in fact, it’s all but impossible.
Europe needs just 14 points to capture the Cup, since a tie is enough for the reigning champions to retain it. After two days, Europe leads 11.5–4.5. Even before considering specific scenarios, the math makes it clear: the U.S. would need a near-miracle on Sunday.
Here’s what the Americans must do to pull off a monumental comeback.
MORE: A complete list of Ryder Cup winners by year
Ryder Cup scenarios for Sunday
12 singles matches will be played on Sunday, meaning 12 points are available. The United States needs to win 10 of those points to win the Ryder Cup. If that sounds impossible, that’s because it likely is.
After a fairly dominant opening two days by Europe, winning the Ryder Cup would require the U.S. to do an obscene amount of winning on Sunday. To put it plainly, the Americans can’t lose more than two matches and can’t win fewer than eight. The following scenarios give the USA the points it needs to win the Ryder Cup:
| Scenario for USA win |
| 8 wins, 4 ties |
| 9 wins, at least 2 ties |
| 10 wins |
| 11 wins |
| 12 wins |
For the U.S., 10 or more singles wins would be enough to win the Ryder Cup. The USA could also win with eight or nine wins, but a certain number of ties would be required for the Americans to gain the 10 points it needs. Both scenarios are unlikely.
Just three outright wins, or even simply five ties without a single win, would be enough for Europe to clinch a victory.
The verdict: it would take a catastrophe for Europe to not win the Ryder Cup.
