Normally, Wednesdays over the summer feature a ton of day games, but that is not the case today. The earliest game (Red Sox at Mariners) is scheduled for first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET, with every other game scheduled for a 6:40 p.m. ET start or later.
That said, the good news is that all 30 teams are playing today, so we have a ton of matchups to consider when making our home run picks. We were able to have a decent day yesterday thanks to Juan Soto, so let’s hope we can keep it rolling today. Below, we look at our favorite MLB HR bets for June 18th.
Best Home Run Picks for Wednesday
Try using MLB betting bonuses on FanDuel and bet365 to make these home run picks:
- Kyle Schwarber (+320 on bet365)
- Zach Neto (+500 on bet365)
- Max Kepler (+520 on FanDuel)
Schwarber Sends one Deep in Miami
Admittedly, the Miami Marlins home stadium is not a hitter-friendly park due to their deep outfields, but, that said, Schwarber is still a great selection to go yard tonight.
Adam Mazur is on the mound for the Marlins, who has yet to throw a pitch in the majors this year, but he has thrown roughly 60 innings in AAA and has a HR/9 of 1.66, which is a below-average number. Last year, he pitched 33.2 innings in the majors for the Padres and had a HR/9 of 1.60, another number that is slightly below-average.
To go further than that, a lot of his advanced numbers show a pitcher that was hit hard, with a 7.49 ERA, 5.64 xERA, 6.23 FIP and 6.20 xFIP. The biggest issue for him in terms of home runs was his average launch angle of 19.3 degrees and fly-ball rate of 45%. So, this is all to say that Schwarber should have the advantage over Mazur.
Schwarber also had a great day at the plate yesterday, despite having nothing to show for it. He had three hits above 100+ mph EV, all three of which were put in the air and two were considered barrels. One of them would have been a home run in 10/30 stadiums, so he did come somewhat close. Let’s hope he gets one tonight.
Neto Goes Yard at Yankee Stadium
Backing Neto in this one is backing a hitter that crushes left-handed pitching. Against lefties, he has a 20.8%-barrel rate and 62.50% HardHit rate, and both those numbers go up over the last 30 days. His ISO rate is .294 against LHP as well, up from .189 against RHP.
Ryan Yarbrough is the pitcher for the Yankees, who has decent stuff but also gives up a decent number of home runs, especially against RHH. On the year, he has allowed a home run to righties every 20 at-bats, which is slightly worse over his last five starts.
Yarbrough also throws a deeper pitch-mix, which gets hit hard by Neto. Looking at essentially every pitch that he throws (cutter, changeup, sinker, 4-seam FB, sweeper), Neto has a 20.83%-barrel rate, 60% HardHit rate and 45% fly-ball rate against this pitch-mix from RHP.
This is also a positive home run game from a stadium + weather perspective, so fingers crossed Neto can clear a fence.
Kepler Joins Schwarber with a Dinger
Schwarber is obviously the best hitter on the Phillies, but a reasonable argument could be made that Kepler is swinging the hottest bat on the team. He leads the team in barrel rate over the last 30 days (20%), and that number jumps up to 26.3% against RHP specifically, which also leads the Phillies.
He managed four HardHits yesterday, one of which was above 100 mph EV, and another that was just under. Since 6/8, Kepler has played in nine games and in that stretch he has three home runs with six barrels and an absurd 17 HardHits.
Of course, he also gets the same benefits that Schwarber does going up against Adam Mazur, but one thing not mentioned yet is that Kepler has the best numbers against 4-seam fastballs, which is the pitch thrown most frequently by Mazur.
To be clear, this includes the full season, not just this recent hot streak for Kepler. On the year, he has a 30%-barrel rate, 66% HardHit rate and a 46% fly-ball rate against the 4-seamer from RHP. Here’s hoping he stays hot tonight.
