The Wednesday MLB slate started early, with two games starting just after noon ET. That is typically the case on Wednesday’s due to it being a getaway day, which just means we get to enjoy baseball essentially the entire afternoon into the evening.
For this article, we will be detailing our best MLB home run picks for August 6th.
MLB Home Run Picks for Wednesday
Diaz Goes Yard for Rays
There are only a couple games considered positive home run situations due to a cold front making its way across the country, but this is one of those positive games with a +15% home run index.
The Angels home stadium is generally a hitter-friendly park, mostly for those batters who hit to center field a lot due to the short center field at Angels Stadium. For today specifically, temperatures in the 90s throughout the entirety of this game along with 7-9 mph winds blowing out will help with carry as well.
The Rays bats should have success against the Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson, who has really struggled recently. Over the last five weeks, Anderson has allowed a home run every 15 at-bats to RHH, with a barrel rate of 10.50% and fly-ball rate of 40% allowed in this stretch.
Diaz, meanwhile, has been respectable at the plate recently but, most importantly for this matchup, absolutely crushes left-handed pitching. On the year, Diaz has an ISO rate of .284 against LHP, which is an “excellent” number by FanGraphs standards. Over his last 30 days, that ISO rate jumps up to an absurd .586.
Anderson’s pitch-mix is primarily made up of changeups and 4-seam fastballs, which Diaz also has fantastic numbers against. Against this pitch-mix from LHP, Diaz has an ISO rate of .467, a HardHit rate of 59% and a decent fly-ball rate of 36%, all with a low strikeout rate of below 10%. He’ll hit one tonight. Make this pick and take advantage of several MLB betting boosts on bet365.
Hernandez Goes Back-to-Back for Dodgers
Teoscar Hernandez hit two home runs yesterday, but we like for him to stay hot and hit another one today. The logic is very similar to the Yandy Diaz selection in that Hernandez is fantastic against left-handed pitching and is facing a lefty that can be had in the home run department.
Hernandez has crushed lefties for years now, and this year is no different with an ISO rate of .338 against LHP. That would be the fifth-best ISO rate against lefties in the entire MLB if extrapolated out to all qualified batters (Hernandez does not technically qualify since he missed time due to injury), putting him in good company with sluggers with as Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suarez.
Matthew Liberatore is the Cardinals starting pitcher tonight, who has allowed a home run every 22 at-bats to RHH over the last five weeks. In this stretch, he has a strikeout rate below 10% and a barrel rate of 11% to RHH. That is a terrible combination of never striking anybody out while consistently getting barreled up. Hernandez goes yard.
Bichette Homers at Coors Field
Unsurprisingly, this Blue Jays/Rockies game at Coors Field is the best home run venue of the day, which makes sense as Coors is generally one of the most home run friendly stadiums in the MLB. As for today it is the hot temperatures in the 90s that will help with carry, along with the high altitude.
Bichette has been hitting very well recently, with the third-most HardHits over the last 14 days (28) and the second-most over the last week (15). He is also fresh off a two-home run game on Monday in this very stadium.
This is also another situation where we are targeting a right-handed batter who has good splits against left-handed pitching, which Bichette will be facing today in Kyle Freeland. Freeland has allowed a home run every 15 at-bats to RHH over the last five weeks, with a horrific 60% HardHit rate and low, 14% strikeout rate in this same stretch.
Bichette has the best ISO rate on the Blue Jays, a respectable .219 on the year, but that jumps up to phenomenal .423 over the last 30 days. He crushes one today.
