Following a long layoff, Manny Pacquiao looks to cause a stir in boxing when he challenges Mario Barrios on July 19 for the WBC welterweight title. The fight in Las Vegas airs on Prime Video.
Pacquiao (62-8-2) has won gold in eight weight classes and is a four-time champion in the 147-pound division alone. The former Senator of the Philippines retired in 2021 but has competed in exhibition fights. He’s beaten a who’s who of fighters, from Marco Antonio Barrera to Erik Morales, Ricky Hatton to Miguel Cotto, and his eternal rival Juan Manuel Marquez
After years away from the ring, Pacquiao looks to turn back the clock and complete the ultimate comeback.
“I’m going to prove to everyone that I’m in great condition,” Pacquiao said. “I’ve been enjoying training camp like I did in the past. Just like when I was 26-years-old. The discipline is still the same. Even with my layoff, my passion is still there.”
The 30-year-old Barrios (29-2-1) beat Yordenis Ugas for interim gold and became full-time champion after Terence Crawford was named “champion in recess.” Barrios has climbed up the ladder in boxing, holding the title in what could be the start of his peak.
“El Azteca” won’t let that go to waste, even against someone with Pacquiao’s status in the sport.
“At the end of the day, he’s just another man in there. Another opponent trying to take my title. Regardless of everything he’s accomplished and given to the sport,” Barrios said.
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, The Sporting News looks at the odds for this fight and makes a final prediction.
Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios betting odds
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Mario Barrios is the -280 favorite, while Manny Pacquiao is the +210 underdog.
Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios betting trends
Via the FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Pacquiao via KO/TKO: +470
- Pacquiao via decision: +460
- Barrios via KO/TKO: +130
- Barrios via decision: +200
- Draw: +1500
MORE: How to bet on combat sports
Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios odds, prediction
Pacquiao is a legend, but status alone won’t help him against Barrios.
Even in the latter half of his career, Pacquiao was a busy fighter. He landed 195 of 686 shots (28.4%) against Keith Thurman, throwing 57 punches per round. Pacquiao had an 82-18 edge in jabs landed.
Barrios is ranked tenth in all of boxing when it comes to the highest amount of jabs thrown (55%) and fifth in jabs landed (42.9%). How has that helped in his most recent fights?
Against Abel Ramos, Barrios had a 279-204 edge in punches landed, landing 35.4% of his shots compared to 27.1% by his opponent. He landed 163 of 505 jabs (32.3%). Barrios landed 149 of 446 shots (31.2%) against Fabian Maidana, with 94 jabs landed.
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Against Yordenis Ugas, Barrios outlanded him 131-39 in the last six rounds. Of the 193 strikes he landed, 107 of them were jabs. When Pacquiao fought Ugas, the former only landed 16% of his shots, with 42 jabs. Ugas landed 151 strikes, had a 37.3% connect rate, and landed 50 jabs.
Can Pacquiao go jab-for-jab against Barrios? Anything can happen in boxing, but timing is everything. So is age. Pacquiao fought twice in 2019. After those fights, he fought Ugas in 2021. He’s now 46, only competing in three short exhibition bouts since his retirement.
Pacquiao will try to go all out in the first few rounds, similar to how he scored an early knockdown against Thurman. Barrios will need to weather the storm and avoid running into the early barrage of punches Pacquiao plans to land.
As the fight goes on, Pacquiao should tire out. The champion must utilize his height, reach, and age to tire out Pacquiao.
Barrios must show he’s the more durable fighter here. While he hasn’t fully proven himself, he should outlast Pacquiao. Hopefully, a win for Barrios won’t result in unspeakable damage to the Hall of Famer.
