The Golden State Valkyries are one win away from a championship in just their second season, and they’ll get their first shot at it on a Thursday afternoon in Atlanta.

Golden State ground out a 64-55 win in Game 5 at Chase Center to take a 3-2 lead in the WNBA Finals. That sends the series back to State Farm Arena for a 12:30 p.m. ET tip, with the Dream needing a win to force Game 7 on Saturday in San Francisco. It’s a quick turn of fortune for Atlanta, which was up 2-1 after a 97-71 blowout in Game 3 and has since dropped two straight.

Angel Reese is the storyline. The Valkyries have collapsed on her every time she gets into the paint, and it’s shown up in the box score. Reese had seven points on 2-of-8 shooting Monday after a 2-of-12 night in Game 4. She still grabbed 15 rebounds, but Kiah Stokes has been a wall around the rim, setting a Finals record with 17 blocks this series.

Reese and coach Karl Smesko both ripped the officiating after Game 5, so the Dream should come out with an edge in front of their home crowd. The books think so too. Atlanta opened as a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings, -166 on the moneyline, with Golden State at +140 to close it out on the road.

We break down our best bets for Game 6, including where Reese fits on the betting board, plus the latest sportsbook promos. 

The WNBA Finals is the perfect time to get into WNBA betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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Dream vs. Valkyries odds

All odds are courtesy of bet365.

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Dream vs. Valkyries prediction

Elimination games at home tend to bring out a team’s best, and I think the Dream get there Thursday, even if it isn’t pretty.

The whistle is the biggest reason I’m backing Atlanta. The Dream have lived at the line all series, attempting 130 free throws to just 78 for Golden State, but they only got there 14 times in Game 5, their lowest total of the Finals. After Reese and Smesko made their feelings known about the officiating, I expect that number to climb back up in Atlanta. If Reese starts drawing fouls early, the Valkyries’ plan of crowding her in the paint gets a lot harder to sustain.

Golden State deserves plenty of credit, though. This has turned into a slugfest between the league’s two best defenses, and the Valkyries have dragged the Dream into exactly the kind of game they want to play. Atlanta’s 55 points Monday were the fewest by any team in a Finals game since 2021. That’s why I’m not expecting a shootout, even with the Dream’s offense due for a bounce-back.

The scoring trend backs that up. Game 3 was the outlier, but three of the five games in this series have finished with fewer than 135 combined points, and the total sits at 147.5 for Game 6. Both teams know every set the other one runs at this point, and with a title on the line, every possession is going to be a grind.

I’ll take the Dream to extend the series with a win at home and the game to stay under the total.

Prediction: Dream 72, Valkyries 66

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Dream vs. Valkyries best bet

The last time these teams played an afternoon game in Atlanta, the shots just weren’t falling. Game 4 tipped at 1 p.m. ET, and the Valkyries walked out with a 67-62 win that never came close to threatening this number. Thursday’s tip is even earlier, and Golden State’s internal clocks will be set to 9:30 a.m. Pacific time.

Even without the odd start time, nothing about this series points to a sudden burst of offense. Golden State’s whole approach is built on dragging games into the mud, and it hasn’t let up after the series opener, a 68-64 win in which the Valkyries also held Atlanta below 70 points. Gabby Williams has made life miserable for the Dream on the perimeter, while Stokes cleans up anything that gets near the rim.

The Dream’s Game 3 explosion is the one game that blew past this total, and it took near-perfect shooting from Atlanta to get there. I’m not counting on a repeat with a championship on the line and both teams playing like every possession is the last one. Both defenses have the upper hand in this series, and that’s where I’m putting my money.

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Best WNBA sportsbook promos

Here are some of the current sportsbook welcome offers to consider when comparing legal betting sites. Promotions change frequently and depend on state eligibility.

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Best Rhyne Howard player prop

When Golden State sends bodies at Reese, somebody has to make them pay, and Rhyne Howard has been that player for the Dream lately. She scored 20 of Atlanta’s 55 points in Game 5, more than a third of the team’s offense on a night when almost nothing else was working.

Howard started the Finals slowly with 12 points in Game 1 and just five in Game 2. Since then, she’s settled in with 16, 19, and 20 points over the last three games. That steady climb lines up with the Valkyries’ adjustment to crowd the paint, which has opened up more room for Howard on the perimeter.

This doesn’t conflict with the under. In a slow, grinding game, the ball is going to end up in the hands of Atlanta’s best shot-maker late in the shot clock, and Howard has been taking those looks with more confidence each game. She’s cleared this number in 20 of her last 26 games, averaging a little over 18 points in that stretch.

Getting even money on the Dream’s most reliable scorer in an elimination game at home is a spot I’ll gladly take.