Even in the best-case scenario, a lockout is coming for Major League Baseball.
The expiration of the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between MLB and the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) this offseason is set to put baseball into a freeze, and only a new agreement can get both sides out of it.
There has been plenty of doom and gloom about the 2027 season, with owners and players sharply divided about the economics of the sport. Whether the worst fears come to pass is unclear, but like the 2021-22 offseason, some kind of interruption is coming.
Here are five things to know about MLB’s impending lockout and the key dates surrounding it.
MORE: Where Rays, Brewers rank among longest World Series droughts
What is the MLB lockout about?
MLB and the MLBPA create the rules that govern the league by collectively bargaining. The collective bargaining agreement “establishes the terms that govern player employment, compensation, benefits, working conditions, and the overall structure of the game,” according to the MLBPA.
The simple explanation is that the impending lockout is the result of the two sides not finding enough common ground to work out a new CBA before the current one expires, but here are the hot-button issues the owners and players have to work out:
Salary cap and salary floor
So, what’s at the heart of the disagreement? This time, it’s the issue of a salary cap and salary floor. While MLB has luxury tax tiers that penalize teams for having too large of a payroll, it differs from the NFL, NBA and NHL in having no fixed salary cap. The Dodgers, for example, can spend to their heart’s desire, so long as they are willing to stomach the most severe luxury tax penalties.
Owners are seeking to establish a salary cap as well as a salary floor, claiming the changes would improve competitive balance in baseball and “level the playing field” for small-market teams. The MLBPA, meanwhile, claims the owners simply want a cap and floor to make more money.
“It holds down their labor costs. They want it because salary caps make their franchise values go up,” MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer said in a May statement. “Franchise values go up because the cap holds down their labor costs because it artificially suppresses salaries.”
MORE: Inside Aaron Ashby’s historic postseason
Season length
MLB’s October proposal included a 154-game season, which is intended to come with a weekly off day for the league and allows for a slightly expanded postseason that would also open the door for more off days and less pitching strain in the playoffs.
Roster limits
The MLBPA has proposed expanding rosters from 26 to 28 players in the early weeks of the season, with an eye toward giving more players opportunities out of spring training and preventing strain on veteran players at the start of a grueling schedule.
Offseason calendar
MLB has proposed changes to the offseason calendar, which would include a 2-3 week period for free agency, a free-agent freeze centered on January and the resumption of free agency in the weeks leading up to the season. MLB hopes to create a faster-paced free agency period much like other leagues have, but the players argue the reduced window would pressure players into below-market contracts.
Postseason format
MLB proposed two major playoff proposals: the expansion of the ALDS and NLDS to a best-of-seven format from five, and the ability for higher seeds to choose their opponent in the Wild Card Series and LDS. MLB has not proposed the expansion of the postseason.
Future of MLB Draft
MLB has proposed cutting the July draft from 20 rounds to 12 and preventing high schoolers from entering the draft. While the players have sharply pushed back on the idea, MLB is aiming to allow players to make a name for themselves on the collegiate stage and thus turn the draft into a higher-profile event for the league.
MORE: Jacob Misiorowski breaks World Series velocity record on first pitch
Will there be an MLB lockout in 2027?
While there is still time to avoid a lockout, there is no indication whatsoever that an agreement will be in place before Dec. 1. Barring a stunning turn of events, a lockout will begin that night.
That doesn’t guarantee it will trickle into the 2027 season, though. Based on the most recent lockout five years ago, MLB and the MLBPA would have until about the end of February to hammer out an agreement to start the season on time and about mid-March to find a deal that could preserve a 162-game schedule with some changes.
MLB first cancelled games on March 1, 2022 after failing to come to an agreement, though the league was still able to play a 162-game schedule with a delayed Opening Day after working out a deal less than two weeks later.
Will the impending lockout affect the 2027 season? It’s certainly possible. There were a number of issues each side had to work through in 2022, but none seemed as dramatic as the salary cap issue. The MLBPA says a salary cap is a non-negotiable, while owners are in a full-court press to push for one. Until that changes, it’s impossible to predict when the lockout might end.
MORE: Explaining Tropicana Field’s Catwalk rules
MLB lockout key dates
Based on the most recent lockout, here’s a gauge of how a lockout in 2027 could play out:
Dec. 1, 2026: Lockout begins
If there is no new CBA in place, which is the expectation, MLB is set to lock out the players upon the previous CBA’s expiration at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. At that point, all transactions would end, teams cannot contact players on the 40-man roster and teams stop using the likeness of their players.
February 2027: Negotiations ramp up
MLB and the MLPA negotiated over Zoom during the 2021-22 offseason until in-person meetings began and started to become frequent in mid-February. The first in-person meeting lasted only about an hour, and the next lasted just 15 minutes. One meeting in late February was reported to be “hostile,” though negotiations stretched 15 hours ahead of MLB’s March 1 deadline to start the season on time.
Will a 2027 lockout follow the same pattern? There is no guarantee. If both sides are intent on playing a full 2027 season, it’s possible they hold serious negotiations earlier than February. If 2022 is an indication of what’s to come, though, the time in which players typically report to spring training is about the time negotiations start to get seirous.
March 1 or earlier: Opening Day at risk
In 2022, MLB told the players that Opening Day would be postponed on March 1 if no agreement was reached. Despite frantic negotiations right down to the wire, the league followed through with that promise.
With 2027’s early Opening Day set for March 25 after an opening night game on March 24, it’s tough to imagine the season starting on time if there is no agreement reached by March 1.
Mid-March: 162-game schedule at risk
Part of what motivated both sides to keep talking and ultimately get a deal done on March 10, 2022 was the ability to salvage a 162-game season. The season didn’t start on time, but there was enough room to fit in full slate with some tweaks. If mid-March comes and goes without an agreement this time, though, it’s hard to see the calendar allowing 162 games to be played.
End of lockout
There is no telling which date will mark the end of the lockout, but once that day arrives, the formal ratification of the new CBA will allow transactions to begin again. If it comes after mid-February, it will also come with key decisions on when to start spring training and perhaps the regular season itself.
Transactions are allowed before the lockout. During the 2021-22 offseason, a few major transactions occurred in late November before the start of the lockout, a handful more occurred in the days after the lockout ended.
MORE: Where Junior Caminero trade ranks among worst in MLB history
What is a lockout in baseball?
When the CBA that governs the league expires, MLB typically enacts a lockout to put pressure on the players to work out a new agreement. During a lockout, no transactions are possible, games are not played and teams cannot have contact with players on the 40-man roster. Minor-league games can still be played, if the lockout extends into the typical minor-league season. MLB also scrubs its websites of players’ likenesses during a lockout.
When previous CBA expired on Dec. 1, 2021, MLB locked out the players until a new agreement was reached more than three months later.
Typically, only the ratification of a new CBA ends a lockout. Once a new CBA is ratified, transactions are allowed and contact between teams and players is allowed once again.
What is a lockout vs. a strike?
The term “lockout” is used because the employer — in this case, MLB — is effectively locking the players out of work. The league suspends its typical operations involving players to gain leverage and work toward a new CBA.
A strike is initiated by the employees — in this case, the players. MLB’s most infamous work stoppage, the 1994 strike, was started by the players during the 1994 season after the previous CBA expired at the end of 1993. MLB is hoping to never get to that point again, and a lockout is a tool it uses to accelerate talks on a new CBA.
Do MLB players get paid during a lockout?
Only signing bonuses and deferred money are paid out during the lockout. Players are only paid their base salaries during the season, so a lockout that extends from Dec. 1 late February or early March might not impact the players’ wallets at all. If the lockout extends into the season, however, they would go without their typical salaries.
During the 1994 strike, the MLBPA provided financial assistance to players as the work stoppage continued.
