Austin Simmons was supposed to be the guy in Oxford. On Saturday, he returns as the quarterback trying to knock the Rebels out of the SEC race.

No. 13 Missouri (5-1, 2-1 SEC) visits No. 9 Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1 SEC) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Oct. 17 at 3:30 p.m. ET, and the Rebels are 6-point favorites.

Simmons opened last season as Ole Miss’ starter and threw for 341 yards in the opener before an ankle injury at Kentucky opened the door for Trinidad Chambliss. Chambliss never gave the job back. He led the Rebels to the College Football Playoff semifinals, finished eighth in the Heisman voting and won a court fight for a sixth year of eligibility. Simmons, wide receiver Cayden Lee and cornerback Chris Graves Jr. all headed to Columbia in January.

So far, the breakup has worked out for everybody. Simmons has thrown 14 touchdowns against just one interception, and he and Chambliss are separated by a single passing yard on the season, with Chambliss playing one fewer game.

There’s plenty riding on this beyond the reunion, too. Both teams have one conference loss, and whoever drops this one takes a real hit in the SEC and Playoff race. Missouri has beaten Florida and Texas A&M by a combined 49 points over the last two weeks, while Ole Miss bounced back from a rough day in Gainesville by burying Vanderbilt 52-17.

It’s homecoming in Oxford, and it’s Missouri’s first trip there since 2013.

We break down our best bets, predictions, and more for Saturday’s Ole Miss vs. Missouri matchup. Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

MORE: Beginner’s guide to futures betting

Ole Miss vs. Missouri prediction

This game comes down to whether either defense can slow down what the other side does best, and I’m not convinced either one can.

Start with Missouri’s ground game. Jamal Roberts has turned into one of the best backs in the country, and he leads the SEC with 828 rushing yards. He’s been on a tear lately, too, running for 211 yards against Florida and a career-high 222 against Texas A&M, with most of that damage coming after halftime once defenses wear down. That’s a bad sign for an Ole Miss defense that ranks last in the SEC against the run, giving up 176.4 rushing yards per game.

On the other side, Missouri’s defense thrives on chaos. The Tigers rank fourth nationally in havoc rate and have 18 sacks, so Chambliss won’t see the clean pockets he had against Vanderbilt. That said, he’s about as hard to rattle as any quarterback in the country. His turnover-worthy play rate sits at just 2.5%, per PFF, and he’s thrown a touchdown pass in 18 straight games. When the pocket breaks down, he’s just as likely to pick up a first down with his legs as he is to take a sack.

The bigger worry for Ole Miss is on defense. The Rebels gave up 52 points to a Florida team that Missouri handled by four touchdowns, and they rank 97th nationally in net adjusted EPA per play. Pete Golding coached against Simmons every day in practice and plans to disguise coverages to bait him into mistakes, but Simmons has protected the ball well all season.

I like Ole Miss to hold serve at home behind Chambliss, but Roberts and the Missouri run game should keep this one tight into the fourth quarter.

Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Missouri 31

MORE: College football futures tracker for 2026 season

Ole Miss vs. Missouri odds

All odds are courtesy of bet365.

MORE: Everything to know about moneyline betting

Ole Miss vs. Missouri best bets

Both offenses have been humming, and neither defense has shown it can handle this kind of firepower for four quarters.

Ole Miss is putting up 38.8 points per game and plays at a fast tempo, so this game should have more possessions than your typical SEC grinder. The Rebels’ defense has been the weak link all year, allowing 28 points per game, and it’s coming off a stretch where Florida hung 52 on it.

Missouri’s defense deserves its credit, but it has a real weak spot that Chambliss can exploit. The Tigers rank 114th nationally in explosiveness allowed, so even when they get stops on early downs, they’ve been prone to giving up chunk plays. That’s a dangerous profile against a quarterback who loves to extend plays and push the ball downfield.

The risk is the clock. Missouri would love to hand the ball to Roberts 30-plus times and shorten the game, and the under has hit in five of the Tigers’ last six road games. If Missouri controls possession, this number gets tougher.

Still, Missouri can’t afford to sit on the ball if it falls behind in a hostile environment, and Ole Miss isn’t built to win a 24-20 game. Both quarterbacks are playing well enough to keep the scoreboard moving, and I expect this one to land in the 60s.

Getting nearly 2-to-1 on Simmons topping 300 yards in his return to Oxford is a price I’m happy to take.

Simmons has been one of the most efficient passers in the SEC this season. He’s averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and owns an 87.5 PFF passing grade, which ranks 10th among Power Four quarterbacks. Because of that efficiency, he doesn’t need 45 attempts to get here. He showed what he can do in his Missouri debut, throwing for 252 yards and four touchdowns against Arkansas-Pine Bluff while playing less than a half.

He’s also come close to this number against SEC competition. In the loss at Mississippi State, he threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns, and his chemistry with Cayden Lee was a big reason why. Lee has 42 catches for 616 yards and five scores, and he’s been Simmons’ go-to option all season.

This is an alt line for a reason. Simmons is averaging 239 passing yards per game, and he managed just 147 against Texas A&M last week when Jamal Roberts carried the offense. Lee was also listed as questionable on Wednesday’s injury report, and if he can’t go, this gets a lot harder.

That said, the setup makes sense. Ole Miss is favored, and if the Rebels jump out early, Eli Drinkwitz won’t be able to lean on Roberts the way he did last week. The Ole Miss defense has had trouble getting off the field, ranking 91st nationally in opponent success rate. If this turns into the shootout I’m expecting, Simmons should get enough volume to clear 300, and the plus money makes it worth the risk.

Chambliss has been everything Ole Miss could have hoped for in his final college season. He’s averaging 287 passing yards per game, which ranks 11th in FBS, and he’s completing 70.1% of his passes.

He’s already cleared 300 twice this season, and both times came on the bigger stages. He threw for 336 yards against Louisville in the opener and followed it up with 363 yards on 33 completions against LSU. This isn’t new territory for him, either. He topped 300 yards eight times last season on the way to the Playoff semifinals.

Missouri’s pass defense has given up yards lately. Over their last three games, the Tigers have allowed 276.6 passing yards per game, and Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor torched them for 360. Missouri has done a nice job keeping any one receiver from taking over, but that just means Chambliss can spread it around to Deuce Alexander and the rest of his weapons.

The biggest risk is the Missouri pass rush. The Tigers get after the quarterback, and if they can force Chambliss off his spot, a few drives could stall. Kewan Lacy is also healthy again, and Ole Miss ran for a season-high 196 yards against Vanderbilt. If the Rebels find that same success on the ground, Chambliss may not need to throw as much.

I don’t expect that to happen. Missouri just held Texas A&M to 29 rushing yards, so this offense will likely have to go through Chambliss’ arm. He’s also tough to bring down, with just a 14.3% pressure-to-sack rate, so the pass rush is less of a threat than it looks. In a game I expect to stay close and land in the 60s, Chambliss should get the volume to reach 300.

MORE: Everything to know about moneyline betting

Best college football sportsbook promos

Here are some of the current sportsbook welcome offers to consider when comparing legal betting sites. Promotions change frequently and depend on state eligibility.

MORE: Best sportsbook promos and betting app bonuses

SGP for Ole Miss vs. Missouri

Here is our favorite same game parlay for this top-25 SEC clash: 

• Ole Miss -5.5: Missouri is playing for a seventh straight week and is coming off two emotional wins over Florida and Texas A&M. That’s a tough spot against a rested Ole Miss team at home on homecoming, and I like the Rebels to pull away late.
• Over 58.5: Missouri is averaging 35.8 points per game, and Ole Miss has been even more explosive. With two quarterbacks this sharp, I don’t see either defense holding up long enough to keep this in the 50s.
• Kewan Lacy touchdown: Lacy found the end zone in his first game back from injury against Vanderbilt, and his workload should grow this week. He’s the Rebels’ top option near the goal line, so he should get his chances to punch one in.
• Odds: (+320 at DraftKings)