Two weeks ago, Florida was sitting at No. 8 in the AP poll with real College Football Playoff buzz. Now, the Gators are unranked and heading to Austin to face a Texas team that’s just as desperate to shake off a bad Saturday.

Florida’s slide started at Missouri, where they got run over 45-17 by a Tigers team that had just barely cracked the poll at No. 25. Things got even uglier back home in the Swamp. Florida was a double-digit favorite against South Carolina last weekend and lost 38-19, with Aaron Philo turning it over twice and the ground game stuck in neutral once again. That one knocked the Gators out of both polls and turned Jon Sumrall’s 4-0 start into a 4-2 record, and the schedule doesn’t get any friendlier from here.

Texas has some soul-searching to do. The Longhorns rolled into the Red River Rivalry as the No. 1 team in the country and left the Cotton Bowl with a 27-24 loss to an unranked Oklahoma squad. Arch Manning threw the first pick-six of his college career, the Sooners returned a blocked punt for a score and Tate Sandell drilled a 47-yard field goal as time expired. Texas slid to No. 7, and their margin for error in the SEC race is gone.

The good news for the Longhorns is that they get to regroup at home, and they’ve got a little extra motivation. Florida knocked off Texas 29-21 in Gainesville last season, and the Longhorns haven’t forgotten it.

Texas is an 8.5-point favorite at DraftKings with the total sitting at 53.5 for Saturday’s noon kickoff at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. We break down our best bets, predictions and more for Texas vs. Florida below.  Football season is the perfect time to get into football betting, as bet365 offers new users a special promo: Bet $10, get $200 win or lose!

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Texas vs. Florida prediction

I’m not overthinking this one. Texas comes home with a chip on their shoulder, and Florida’s pass defense is the last thing you want to bring into DKR when the Longhorns are looking to make a statement.

The Gators have been getting carved up through the air all season. Opponents are completing about two-thirds of their throws against this secondary, and they aren’t just dinking and dunking to get there. Teams are pushing the ball more than 10 yards downfield on average and still connecting, which tells you how much trouble Florida’s defensive backs have been in. They also can’t get off the field, as offenses are converting more than half of their third downs against them.

The Texas offense hasn’t been a juggernaut, and Manning has had his share of uneven moments this fall. That said, this is exactly the kind of matchup that gets a quarterback right. Steve Sarkisian should be able to take some early shots downfield, and once the Longhorns get into scoring range, Florida has been one of the worst teams in the country at keeping opponents out of the end zone.

It doesn’t look much better for the Gators on the other side of the ball. Florida runs the ball more than most teams, but their offensive line just hasn’t been moving people, and now they get a Texas front that’s been stuffing the run all year. The Longhorns are also creating havoc on more than a fifth of their defensive snaps, so I don’t love Florida’s chances of staying ahead of the chains.

Florida’s passing game is built on quick, short throws, which works fine when you’re playing with a lead. It’s a lot harder when you’re down two scores and need chunk plays to climb back in, and I think that’s where the Gators find themselves by halftime.

Texas rolls, covers the number, and reminds everyone they’re still very much in the playoff picture.

Prediction: Texas 41, Florida 17

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Texas vs. Florida odds

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Texas vs. Florida best bet

Hollywood Smothers didn’t get much going in his first Red River Rivalry, finishing with 39 yards on 12 carries against a stingy Oklahoma front. I’m expecting a much different afternoon for him on Saturday.

Florida just can’t stop the run. The Gators rarely blow up a play in the backfield, so ball carriers get back to the line of scrimmage with a head of steam almost every time, and too many of those runs turn into chunk gains. This is about as soft a run defense as Smothers will see in conference play.

The Texas ground game hasn’t been a strength this season, and Smothers splits work with Raleek Brown, which caps his touches. That said, he’s already gone for 70 and 74 yards in two of his three healthy games before the Oklahoma loss, and he handled 21 carries in the win over Ohio State when Steve Sarkisian leaned on him.

Game script works in his favor, too. If Texas builds the kind of lead I’m expecting, the Longhorns will be happy to keep the ball on the ground and drain the clock in the second half. That’s plenty of opportunities for Smothers to clear this number against a defense that’s struggled to tackle all year.

The Texas offense hasn’t exactly been lighting up scoreboards this fall, and I’ll admit they’ve only topped 31 points once, back in the opener against Texas State. That said, they haven’t seen a defense this generous since then.

Florida has been bleeding points in SEC play. Auburn hung 39 on them, Missouri dropped 45, and South Carolina put up 38 in the Swamp, so the Gators have allowed at least 38 points in three of their four conference games. Even Ole Miss, in a game Florida won by 24, found the end zone four times.

The problem is pretty simple. Opponents are moving the ball on Florida on nearly half of their snaps, and there’s just no resistance once offenses get rolling. Texas also plays at a quicker tempo than most teams, which means more possessions and more chances to cash in against a defense that’s been wearing down late in games.

I’ve got the Longhorns putting up 41 in my prediction, and I think the motivation is there for a big number after the Oklahoma loss. Sarkisian isn’t going to take his foot off the gas with a top-10 ranking to protect and a College Football Playoff resume to rebuild. Texas clears 31.5 here.

Cam Coleman finally had the breakout game Texas fans were waiting for in the Red River Rivalry. The Auburn transfer hauled in five catches for 110 yards, including a 41-yard touchdown on the opening drive, and he looked like the No. 1 option Manning has been missing all season.

The volume hasn’t always been there for Coleman, and he’s only cleared this number in two of his five games. That said, one of those duds had a good reason. He bruised his tailbone against Tennessee and finished that game with just one catch, and he looked fully healthy again against Oklahoma.

Coleman is the definition of a big-play receiver, averaging nearly 19 yards per catch this season. At 6-foot-3, he’s a matchup problem for just about any secondary, and Florida’s defensive backs have been getting beat all year. Opposing quarterbacks have been carving this unit up on a per-dropback basis, so Coleman doesn’t need a huge target share to get there. Two or three of his trademark downfield grabs could do the trick.

Manning also threw for 260 yards against a strong Oklahoma pass defense, so it feels like this passing game is starting to click at the right time. Expect Sarkisian to keep feeding his top receiver early, especially with Coleman coming off his best game in burnt orange.

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SGP for Texas vs. Florida

Here is our favorite same game parlay for Saturday’s clash: 

• Texas moneyline: Texas is playing at home with a chip on their shoulder after the Oklahoma loss, and Florida hasn’t shown any signs of stopping their slide. The Longhorns’ defense should keep the Gators’ offense in check all afternoon, so I’m comfortable leaning on Texas to get the win.
• Over 52.5 points: I’m expecting the Longhorns to do most of the heavy lifting here, but Florida should be able to add a couple of late scores once this game opens up. Both of these defenses have been on the field a lot lately, and the Gators’ issues on that side of the ball make a high-scoring afternoon feel likely.
• Hollywood Smothers 12+ rushing attempts: Smothers has been the lead back whenever he’s been healthy, and he hit this number in the Red River Rivalry even with the Longhorns trailing late. If Texas builds a lead like I’m expecting, Sarkisian should lean on him to run out the clock in the second half.
• Odds (+198 at DraftKings)