The Red River Rivalry has been a one-sided affair lately, and No. 1 Texas (4-0) will look to keep it that way when it faces Oklahoma (2-2) on Saturday at the Cotton Bowl.

The Longhorns are 8.5-point favorites in Dallas, and the total has dropped to 39.5. That number makes sense given recent history. Oklahoma hasn’t scored a touchdown against Texas since 2023, managing just three field goals across the last two meetings, including a 23-6 loss last season.

Not much suggests that changes Saturday. Colin Simmons and the Texas defense sacked Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon 10 times in their last game, while John Mateer and the Oklahoma offense put up just 10 points against Michigan and 13 in a 41-13 loss to Georgia. That said, rivalry games rarely follow the script, and Arch Manning’s offense hasn’t exactly been lighting up scoreboards either.

We break down our best bets for Oklahoma vs. Texas, along with the latest odds and sportsbook promos for the Red River Rivalry. Plus, new users can bet $5 on this game and get $150 in Bonus Bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Oklahoma vs. Texas prediction

This is shaping up to be a defensive battle, and while Oklahoma has the better defense statistically, I give Texas the slight edge because of the massive disparity between the two offenses.

Oklahoma’s defense ranks second nationally in PPA/play allowed, third in defensive success rate, and first in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 23.1% of their opportunities. That’s an elite unit, but the Sooners’ offense has been one of the least efficient in College Football.

Oklahoma ranks 125th in offensive PPA/play, 138th in rushing PPA and 117th in plays per game. That’s a concerning combination against a Texas defense ranked 12th in success rate allowed and sixth in finishing drives.

Texas isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard either. The Longhorns rank 81st in offensive PPA/play and 92nd in rushing efficiency. Arch Manning will have his hands full against Oklahoma’s pass rush, which could limit explosive plays and force Texas into longer drives.

Still, Oklahoma’s inability to run the football, combined with an offensive line ranked 119th in line yards, gives Texas a significant advantage in controlling field position.

With both defenses ranking inside the top 20 in PPA/play allowed, I don’t expect either offense to find much rhythm.

Prediction: Texas 20, Oklahoma 13

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Oklahoma vs. Texas odds

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

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Oklahoma vs. Texas best bets

Oklahoma’s defense has kept them in games this season, but the offense keeps letting them down. The Sooners are averaging 22 points per game, and that number is inflated by a 51-0 blowout of UTEP in the opener. Since then, they needed everything they had to scrape out a 14-6 win over New Mexico and went just 2-of-14 on third down against Georgia.

Texas presents an even tougher test. Tennessee came into their game with the Longhorns averaging 510 yards per game and left with just 221. Granted, Brent Venables had a bye week to find answers, and a defensive or special-teams touchdown could wreck that number in a hurry. That said, Oklahoma would likely need two offensive touchdowns to get over 14.5, and that feels like a lot to ask of this group.

Hollywood Smothers started his college career at Oklahoma, so there’s a revenge angle here. But I don’t trust the workload. He was dealing with a lower-body injury and barely factored in at Tennessee, and even when healthy, Texas have spread the carries around. Against UTSA, he got just 10 carries while Raleek Brown and Derek Cooper both got double-digit attempts.

Oklahoma’s run defense is also a tougher matchup than it gets credit for. Outside of one 54-yard touchdown run, the Sooners held Georgia to about 3 yards per carry. Texas haven’t been explosive on the ground either, with no run longer than 21 yards since Smothers broke off a 45-yarder on the first play of the season. Granted, he’s still the lead back, and a long run could get him there on its own. Even so, his best game against a quality defense was 74 yards on 21 carries against Ohio State, and he needed a big workload to get there. In a slow-paced, low-scoring game with a crowded backfield, I’ll take the under.

This would’ve been a scary under a couple years ago. Mateer ran for 826 yards in his final season at Washington State, but the legs just haven’t been there this year. He has 76 rushing yards on 41 carries, which is less than 2 yards per attempt. He had 17 rushing yards against New Mexico and seven on 15 carries against Georgia.

Sacks count against rushing totals in college, and that’s a big part of why I like this. Mateer has already been pressured 45 times this season, and now he’s facing Simmons and one of the best pass rushes in the country. Oklahoma could dial up some designed runs coming out of the bye to get him going. Even so, a couple of sacks can wipe out a decent scramble pretty quickly.

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Best college football sportsbook promos

If you’re looking to get in on the betting action for the college football season but are new to some of the best sportsbooks in your area, take advantage of their new user promos and welcome bonuses.

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SGP for Oklahoma vs. Texas

Here is our favorite same game parlay for the Red River Rivalry:

• Texas moneyline: Steve Sarkisian has won three of the last four meetings with Brent Venables by a combined 136-46. With Oklahoma owning the SEC’s worst offense at 321.3 yards per game, I have a hard time seeing the Sooners winning this outright.
• 1st quarter under 7.5 points: Oklahoma’s defense allows opponents to convert just 23.1% of their third downs, which should make early drives tough for Texas. Rivalry games also tend to start tight and emotional, and neither offense has given much reason to expect a fast start.
• Texas 1st half moneyline: Mateer has turned the ball over 10 times already this season, including three giveaways in the first half against Georgia. If he’s still pressing early, Texas should be able to turn short fields into points and take a lead into halftime.
• Odds (+193 at FanDuel)